07 June 2011

Connect the Dots

More 8June11: It's even worse than you think
Gary Locke

International observers are seeing the growing outlines of a world without central leadership or guidance. The US seems unable to find its way out of its stagnant economic condition, and there is no other nation ready, able, and willing to step up to the plate.

Russia's corrupt leadership combined with its one-trick-pony economy simply cannot keep up with the emerging BRICs. Russia's shrinking core population is sick, and morally exhausted. The huge landmass of riches is growing harder to hold.

China's "economic miracle" is in reality a huge house of cards waiting to collapse. Inflation in China is just a tiny hint of the dangerous undercurrent of instability waiting to break into chaotic tumult.

Japan's recent earthquake and tsunami triggered severe economic and social upheaval, which on top of Japan's shrinking demographic promises continued economic problems for the island archipelago as a whole.

The third world is still the third world for many reasons, most of which are not politically correct to mention. It is important to understand that the population of much of the third world is several multiples of the natural carrying capacity of the regions -- without outside aid and assistance. If something happens to the world economy, the death toll in third world nations is apt to be distressingly high.

What about the erstwhile hegemon and superpower of the world, the US? Under President Obama, US economic prospects are looking worse and worse. Americans suspect that there is something wrong with the way that President Obama is handling the US economy. But with the dumbing down of schools and other dulling effects of demographic change on the US population, most Americans lack the ability to pinpoint exactly where Obama is going wrong, economically.

Stimulus after stimulus have failed to achieve anything other than to create an addiction among investors for more stimulus. As QE2 fades, investors look ahead to QE3 for another junky's fix.

Meanwhile, among the US more affluent, educated, and productive classes, birthrates are plummeting. This falling fertility not only reflects a greater affluence and hedonistic tendency, but it also reflects a certain lack of faith in national leadership and the future.

The visible human world is built on psychological whims and beliefs. If those whims and beliefs shift, the human world will shake. Your best bet is to pay attention to basics. Consider instituting triage as appropriate for your personal circumstances.

The financial contraction of 2008 was not a one-off event from which we are all recovering. Almost none of the fundamentals are getting better, and many are getting worse. As a result, 2008 was only a prelude to a worsening future, as long as the twin disasters of debt and demographics continue along their inexorable paths of destruction. Energy starvation due to faux environmentalism, and widespread indoctrination of lobotomising politically correct dogma via the educational system is not helping, either.

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Blogger Hell_Is_Like_Newark said...

In regards to the low birth rates in developed countries, what can be done?

The upper classes not having children is a problem reaching back into antiquity. Alarmed by low birth rates, Roman Emperor Vespasian offered financial incentives for the upper classes to have more children. I don't think it worked.

Tuesday, 07 June, 2011  
Blogger Bloggin' Brewskie said...

Yep. Collective bad economics is leading to a 4- or 5-class shit storm across the globe. The thing I disagree with among gloomers is energy: the run up in oil prices is due to maniac speculators, not market fundamentals.

Sure, things look bad for the future but if we don't nuke ourselves, they'll eventually balance out. We've been down this road before; there's nothing new under the sun.

Tuesday, 07 June, 2011  
Blogger al fin said...

HILN: Keep in mind how much of human action is dictated by fashion, whim, and momentum.

Learn to make human irrationality work for the benefit of the group's future.

BB: Speculators push prices beyond normal market evaluations. But it's important to keep in mind that there is no giant oil spigot in the sky that can be opened and closed at will. It requires a lot of investment, work, planning, exploration, maintenance, and hustle to try to dynamically match supplies with demand.

Nothing new under the sun? Yes, I suppose the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were thinking along those lines, just before the bright flash in the sky. :-(

Wednesday, 08 June, 2011  
Blogger Will Brown said...

The expressly unacknowledged problem presented by the lack of an international entity acknowledged to at least possess the capability to enforce its edit if it chooses is best illustrated by the polkitical and economic events in W. Europe 1925-1935. The lack of a credable threat against national extremist behavior lead to an increase of national extremist behavior.

I'm confident the participants of the historical events aren't up to such strenuous activities these days, but suggest Iran, Venezuela and a laundry list of non-governmental actors are if you will accept ethnic or religious groupings in place of nationalistic ones. Human capability at self-delusion should never be underestimated, particularly from those socially insulated by group manipulated authority trappings (civil service, elected office, NGO leadership, etc).

Wednesday, 08 June, 2011  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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