01 April 2011

Russia's Looming Population Crisis

Russia's population declined by nearly 3.4 million over the past decade, a census showed on Monday, offering more evidence that Russian economic growth will lag behind that of rival emerging powers China and India.

The Kremlin has tried to boost population growth, fearing that fewer births in an aging population will sap the economy, especially with a pension age of 55. The demographic black hole is expected to take 1 million workers out of the economy every year until 2017. _Sun

The collapse of Russia's demographic infrastructure is nearly complete. Infections such as tuberculosis and HIV are running out of control. Alcoholism, mental illness, suicide, and poverty run rampant. Russian women are unwilling to bring children into this ugly world that Putin has made. In time, Russia's military will no longer be capable of defending the nation's rich and vast Eastern Siberian land holdings, and China's huge population will naturally spill over to inherit the energy, mineral, and lumber wealth.
Russia still has serious, serious public health problems, notably AIDS and multi-drug resistant TB. With regards to the latter, the WHO recently issued a report indicating that Russia has the third largest number of infections in the world. Consider. China has almost 10 times the population as Russia, but only about double the number of infections, meaning that Russia’s infection rate is about 5 times China’s. The ratio is only slightly better when compared to India. These problems are bad in themselves, but are symptomatic of deeper problems that have baleful implications for Russian health and the potential for population growth. _SeekingAlpha
Russia's population could shrink by more than 20 million over the next few decades. There will not be enough young Russian men to run the civilian economy, much less to man the military.
A report published by Standard & Poor's says Russia’s population might shrink from roughly 140 million people to 116 million people by the middle of the century. At current spending rates, this would increase government age-related expenditures from 13 percent to more than 25 percent of gross domestic product. And analysts warn that Russia's national debt could be nearly six times the country's GDP by 2050 as a result.

Sergei Zakharov, deputy director of the Institute of Demography in Moscow, says a high morbidity rate is one of the main reasons for the imbalance. "Our death rate from outside reasons, such as accidents, traumas, poisoning, murders, suicides - everything that is not connected to disease. The level of human loss here is similar to the countries at war such as Columbia, which is at war with is drug barons. So the first thing that needs to be dealt with is that," Zakharov said. _VOANews
High mortality and low fertility are burning Russia's demographic candle at both ends. Meanwhile, highly placed ex-KGB officials and other government thugs are sucking Russia's wealth dry, and sending it to private accounts out of the country.

Russia is wealthy, in terms of energy and mineral deposits, and other natural resources. But Russia cannot access and produce its vast wealth without outside help. And every time outsiders come in to develop Russia's resources, Russia steals all the infrastructure the outsiders bring in and develop. And so Russia's main export of note is its young, beautiful women -- both as mail order brides to the west, and as workers for the world's brothels.

Of course, women are exploited inside Russia as well -- which is why so many of them are desperate to leave. Neither is Russia a very child-friendly place. And men tend to die before the age of 60 -- never living long enough to reach retirement age.

The Russian tragedy is that Russia's people never grew out of serfdom and obeisance to authority. Putin's Russia is slipping back into the Soviet and Tsarist repressionism of ages past. But modern Russia has satellite TV, the internet, and many other connections to the outside world. Any Russians who bother to make comparisons between their own sad state of affairs, and conditions in the western world -- even a western world experiencing a prolonged economic downturn -- become progressively crushed under the weight of despair and hopelessness.


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Blogger kurt9 said...

There are around 10 million Turks working as guest workers in Russia. Much of Russian construction is done by these Turks.

Friday, 01 April, 2011  
Blogger al fin said...

Kurt: Are these Turks from Turkey, or Turkish peoples from Central Asia?
Or are they actually "Turks" as a figure of speech, as in "young Turks?"

Just kidding.

The Muslim population of Russia is certainly growing at a faster rate than the ethnic Russian population -- but apparently even that input is not enough to keep the total population from shrinking.

Sunday, 03 April, 2011  

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