19 January 2011

What the Hell Is Going On With the Sun?


About 2 years ago in comments at WUWT, Al Fin remarked to solar scientist Leif Svalgaard that it appeared that solar scientists did not know what the hell was going on with the sun. Leif took exception to the remark at the time. But subsequent events suggest that solar scientists do not indeed know what the hell the sun is up to. The GIF animation below from WUWT illustrates the changes in predictions over the last 3 years.
This will be at the level of the Maunder Minimum of 1675 -1715.
Previous NASA predictions below:
2010 October: Predicted peak 60-70
2009 May 29: predicted peak: 80-90 range
2009 Jan 5: predicted peak: 100-110 range
2008 Mar 28: predicted peak: 130-140 range

From the NASA page:

Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 59 in June/July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall. _WUWT

Want to see something really scary? Check out Solar Cycle 24 PDF download from David Archibald

More 21Jan11: Here is information on a related topic -- the influence of cosmic rays on climate. Apparently cosmic rays may play a much larger role in climate swings than the IPCC is willing to admit. Which means that the sun would play a much larger role as well.

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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