15 October 2010

If Peak Oil Is Real, Why Does OPEC Need Production Discipline?

The cartel's 12 oil ministers decided in Vienna to neither expand output, in order not to add to current high stock levels, nor to curb supply so as not to hamper the global economic recovery with higher oil prices. _Source
Some OPEC members want to tighten the production quota to artificially drive the cost of oil up to $100 a barrel -- to compensate for the shrinking of the Obama-dolla.
The 13 percent decline in the Dollar Index since June has led some OPEC members to call for oil to rise to $100 a barrel.

The U.S. currency’s weakness means the “real price” of oil is about $20 less than current levels, Venezuelan Energy and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said after yesterday’s meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna. The group, which accounts for 40 percent of global crude output, left targets unchanged and called for greater adherence to quotas, which are being exceeded by a supertanker load a day. _Bloomberg
Honestly, if OPEC really believed the world's supply was more than 5 years past peak -- and that oil is soon to naturally shoot up past $100 to $150 a barrel and higher -- why would there be a question about production discipline? They would be holding on to as much oil as possible, so as to get the much higher prices in the near future. Clearly, peak oil by natural causes is very unlikely.

Political peak oil -- phony peak oil driven by carbon hysteria, faux environmental legislation, and official cartel action -- is another matter entirely. Political peak oil could happen at any moment, and has nothing to do with oil and other hydrocarbon reserves in the ground, or with the ability of oil & gas companies to profitably extract these reserves.

Meanwhile, Iran and Iraq's vast oil reserves keep on growing. Likewise, Saudi Arabia has big plans for using powerful new technologies to reach even deeper into the monster Ghawar oil field to increase production even higher if necessary.

Up until now, drillers have been able to extract around 30% of oil from oil fields. But a wide range of marvelous new technologies promises to extend the yields by as much as 10% to 20% more of the initial reserves. Even old fashioned CO2 injection can add significantly to production of tired, depleted fields.

The Earth has barely been surveyed for hydrocarbon resources. The incredible recent global discoveries in shale oils and gases is good evidence for that. And as powerful new technologies for oil, gas, coal and other hydrocarbon exploration come into use, expect vast new discoveries of all kinds.

Watch and learn.


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Blogger J said...

In fact, there is surplus poduction of oil and prices may fall. The green" energy projects will be abandoned soon and the sunken costs - lost.

Friday, 15 October, 2010  
Blogger bruce said...

J., that is the most optimistic thing I have ever heard. I don't even care if oil runs low at this point, as long as it fires up the instillations of nuclear power and local Drilling.

What gives me hope is that you say Green Power will be tossed.

Saturday, 16 October, 2010  
Blogger KGould said...

Thank you for posting this. When you hear on the news about 'depleted' oil fields, the layman is of course going to think it means 'empty' or virtually empty. But that is just not the case. It was explained to me by people in the field that for them, it usually means the pressure is gone and until they do something else, they can't bring the rest of the oil up. It was frustrating over the years, before new ideas surfaced, because they knew there was a heck of a lot still down their in the 'oil fields' but they couldn't get at it. But the term utilized was 'depleted' which gives people the wrong idea. Word has to get around to explain this to those who don't care to look it up for themselves, or just simply do not understand and don't realize they are being misled.

It's more like 'temporarily out of service' until an idea crops up to get things going again.

Monday, 18 October, 2010  
Blogger markogts said...

why would there be a question about production discipline? They would be holding on to as much oil as possible

To hold as much oil as possible isn't the same thing as "production discipline"?

Look at it in another way: if oil could drop in price, OPEC would get rid of all the green economy at once. But OPEC doesn't do that. Why? Why are they forcing us to search for alternatives? Simple answer: they have no other choi(l)ce.

Saturday, 23 October, 2010  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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