12 January 2010

The Incredible Vanishing European

“At the beginning of the eighteenth century, approximately 20 percent of the world’s inhabitants lived in Europe (including Russia). Then, with the Industrial Revolution, Europe’s population boomed, and streams of European emigrants set off for the Americas....

...By 2003, the combined populations of Europe, the United States, and Canada accounted for just 17 percent of the global population. In 2050, this figure is expected to be just 12 percent – far less than it was in 1700. _NewPopulationBomb _ as quoted here
But of that 12% in 2050, only perhaps half will be ethnic European. In other words, Europeans will represent about 5% of the ethnic contingent of 2050 Earth. By the year 2300, one can infer from UN population projections that the proportion of ethnic Europeans out of the entire world population will be close to 1%. (see links at bottom of page UN population report World Population in 2300 PDF ) [Taking into account differential birthrates between immigrants and their descendants, and indigenous Europeans]

....supporting elderly populations will—unless drastic steps are taken—absorb more and more of gross output. While the absolute numbers of those in working ages will be declining, the absolute numbers of those over sixty-five will be rising: for the EU-27 their numbers are expected to nearly double from today’s level, going from 85 million in 2008 to 151 million by 2060 (Giannakouris 2008, p. 7). To sustain its elderly population, Europe will have to spend more money on health care and pension support. It is not just that an elderly population will be ill; they may be quite active. But they will then demand the hip and knee replacements, cornea replacements, heart transplants, diabetes treatments, blood-pressure treatments, and other procedures and medications necessary to sustain an active and healthy life into older ages. This will occur at a time when the supply of new doctors and nurses will likely decline. _ Jack Goldstone, Europe's Brave New World. 2008 pdf

Russia will face the same problem even sooner -- and the results are likely to be catastrophic. Even China will find it difficult to overcome its own internal demographic transitions in order to fulfill the many poorly thought out prophecies of "A China Century."

Back to The New Population Bomb:
Part of the reason developed countries will be less economically dynamic is that their populations will be substantially older. The European countries, Canada, the United States, Japan, South Korea, and even China are aging at unprecedented rates. Today, the proportion of people aged 60 or older in China and South Korea is 12-15 percent. It is 15-22 percent in the European Union, Canada, and the United States and 30 percent in Japan. With baby boomers aging and life expectancy increasing, these numbers will increase dramatically. In 2050, approximately 30 percent of Americans, Canadians, Chinese, and Europeans will be over 60, as will more than 40 percent of Japanese and South Koreans. _as quoted in HBDBooks

In 1950, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey had a combined population of 242 million. By 2009, those six countries were the world's most populous Muslim-majority countries and had a combined population of 886 million. Their populations are continuing to grow and indeed are expected to increase by 475 million between now and 2050--during which time, by comparison, the six most populous developed countries are projected to gain only 44 million inhabitants. Worldwide, of the 48 fastest-growing countries today--those with annual population growth of two percent or more--28 are majority Muslim or have Muslim minorities of 33 percent or more." as quoted here

While the populations of advanced nations will represent a lower and lower proportion of total Earthlings over the next several decades, within those advanced nations that have been traditionally European, the proportion of ethnic Europeans will shrink almost as quickly.

Shrinking Japan leads to a relatively empty and joyless island chain.  But shrinking Russia leads to vicious wars over a vast and rich territory that Russians can no longer defend.  And later, even shrinking China will lead to political instability, with the possibility of a descent into regional warlordism.

Europe itself will likely become a battleground between European secular ethnics and a range of militant Islamic immigrants and their descendants.  Already a few European cities are de facto under Islamic control or suffer humiliating political dominance by Islamic populations.  Freedom of speech is becoming rare in those Islamicised enclaves of Europe.

More on this topic later.

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Blogger kurt9 said...

Yeah, well guess what. The Muslim Middle East will also undergo this demographic transition as well. Iran is already experiencing it. So is North Africa. As goes Iran, so will go the Arab (and Pakistan) Middle East. The Muslim world in 2050 is going to look a lot like Europe, Russia, and East Asia today. Its not going to be a Muslim world. Rather, its going to be a black planet.

Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region of the world that still has high fertility and population growth. Also, Sub-Saharan Africa has actually managed 6% annual economic growth for the past decade (up until the current crash) and they actually have a higher per capita than India (source for all of this is Brian Wang's NextBigFuture).

Sub-Saharan Africa's population will be around 2 billion in 2050, with 30% of it being under the age of 20. The rest of the world will be around 7 billion, with around 10% of it being under the age of 20.

Fear of a black planet.

Tuesday, 12 January, 2010  
Blogger al fin said...

Perhaps, Kurt, perhaps. But not necessarily. Fertility is dependent on many things, and signs of a "fertility rebound" in very religious nations in Asia and Africa has already been detected.

Human innovation generally makes the world a better place. Where has innovation taken place in the past, and where has it not taken place?

The ancient civilisations of Africa, the Americas, Australia, etc. never invented the wheel or many other simple, basic technologies. It is easy to see many rapidly procreating human cultures slipping backwards over time -- without the more advanced cultures holding out the lifeline.

The issue, of course, is declining world average IQ, and what that will do to the future of human civilisation and the future of advanced technologies.

IQ, executive function, creative ability, and a score of other cognitive strengths that appear to be highly heritable.

BTW, the issue is not one of race but of genes. It is a crucial distinction that is too easily lost in the low intellectual level of discussion prevalent in the mainstream media and in most dumbed-down academic settings.

Wednesday, 13 January, 2010  
Blogger Eshenberg said...

Hmmm "BTW, the issue is not one of race but of genes" so You admit "race" is social construction and have nothing to do with genes;)?
"...a "fertility rebound" in very religious nations in Asia and África has already been detected."
Yes,Sub-Sahar África!
"The future is unknown even to those who form it."

Wednesday, 13 January, 2010  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I support Kurt9 in this:
demographic transition is happening in all Middle East. Iran is at replacement level and going under fast. Saudi Arabia fertility is higher, but is dropping like a brick. Given how the fertility rate of women is computed it could not drop faster than this.

So, they will undergo a demographic transition without the wealth accumulated by Japan, EU and America. Material and immaterial wealth. But if they have not enough wealth, they will be unable to pay for the most advanced technologies that are able to increase the window of fertility of women. When corrected for age, the fertility of >29 years (high wages) and <29 years (low wages) is the same in the US. I bet it is the same everywhere.
But without the technology the window will close before for the poor in the M.E., Asia, and Africa.

In the same time, 2010-2020 the Muslims and African migrants will be even more unwelcome in EU and US due the growing ethnic tensions.

In a issue the fundamentalists are right: TV is dangerous. The people viewing TV drama are bound to imitate their heroes. In Brazil this cause the fertility of women to decrease as they were exposed to telenovelas (TV broadcasting reached their home) where the female characters had only one or two children instead of 4-6 as tradition there. Role-models indeed.

The demography is not so "unchangeable" even in few decades.

Thursday, 14 January, 2010  
Blogger al fin said...

It is true that Iran is experiencing a type of demographic collapse. One should be careful, though, in over-generalising Iran's unique situation.

The future of fertility is not quite so clear and predictable as all that. There is no need to increase the "window of fertility" for women when they begin having children at age 15, for example.

One must look closely at why fertility trends are changing in the direction they seem to be moving -- and what larger global trends may cause apparent fertility trends to reverse. Urbanisation, a growing affluence, and the expansion of the rights of women are at least three of the underlying causes of reduced fertility that may be reversed in the third world.

A global recession / depression eliminates much of the prosperity that a projected fertility drop depended on. Likewise, an Obama presidency of appeasement to Islamic primitivism re-empowers the forces of (tribal) male domination within Islam.

Eshenberg: Right, I agree that race is just a social construct. Just like your nose is just a social construct -- so that I should feel free to punch it at any time without consequences. ;-)

Thursday, 14 January, 2010  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Without welfare payments a good portion of the muslim population of Europe would either starve, find jobs or leave.

Thursday, 14 January, 2010  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The enlarging of the "window of fertility" I wrote was for the more affluent women in the West. I doubt the women in Algeria or Morocco will have the resources to enlarge their window. Algeria and Morocco are near the substitution rate (2.2-2.3), Tunisia in under (1.7 IIRC).
The big hit in Morocco fertility was when they raised the taxes to pay for the invasion of the Spanish Sahara. More taxes, less money, less children.
Urbanization is also a cause, because in a city you need money for a home big enough for a large family. You can not herd a few goats and grow your food.
In a global recession the urbanized will be forced to cut the number of children and postpone their birth. Now the majority of the world population live in cities and this number will grow in future. So, if they become poor they will have very few children (one or two).

There is no link of prosperity with lower fertility. In the past this was the reverse. Prosperity with longer lives and birth controls, but mainly birth control, reduce the fertility.
Or better, the woman will postpone the first child to a time when she feel economically secure (or the time run out). So there will be not much time for more children.

From what I know, even in Africa governments are promoting birth control (to the women mainly, that don't want more than two children)), because the current fertility (4-6-8 children/woman) is not sustainable and the growth of the population will cause war for the resources available. Let say that government in power don't like wars that could oust them.

Saturday, 16 January, 2010  

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