29 September 2009

Canada vs. Europe: A Demographic Future

Image from Seeking Alpha
Canada's population is projected to grow over the next few decades, at a slow and sustainable rate. Europe, on the other hand, is slated to go the way of Japan and Russia: a steady shrinking into oblivion.

The contrast between the two regions is stark on many levels. Canada is rich in natural resources, and is seen as a desirable immigration location worldwide. Canada's economic future looks bright:
As an affluent, high-tech industrial society in the trillion-dollar class, Canada resembles the US in its market-oriented economic system, pattern of production, and affluent living standards. Since World War II, the impressive growth of the manufacturing, mining, and service sectors has transformed the nation from a largely rural economy into one primarily industrial and urban. The 1989 US-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (which includes Mexico) touched off a dramatic increase in trade and economic integration with the US, its principle trading partner. Canada enjoys a substantial trade surplus with the US, which absorbs nearly 80% of Canadian exports each year.

Canada is the US's largest foreign supplier of energy, including oil, gas, uranium, and electric power. Given its great natural resources, skilled labor force, and modern capital plant, Canada has enjoyed solid economic growth, and prudent fiscal management has produced consecutive balanced budgets from 1997 to 2007. In 2008, growth slowed sharply as a result of the global economic downturn, US housing slump, plunging US car sales, and drop in world commodity prices. Public finances, too, are set to deteriorate for the first time in a decade. Tight global credit conditions have further restrained business and housing investment, despite the conservative lending practices and strong capitalization that made Canada's major banks among the strongest in the world. _SA [Be sure to look over the first comment at the end of the article __ AF]
Europe does not share most of Canada's strengths, and exhibits a larger demographic weakness.
EUROPE...has the lowest fertility rate and the most elderly population in the world, and this population will soon start to shrink. All this makes it a front runner in a demographic trend that sooner or later will reach most of the world.

.....Economists are already fretting over the problem of how social security systems will cope when the post-war baby boomers start collecting their pensions in 2015. In hyper-ageing countries like Italy and Germany, where 1 in 7 people will be over 80 in 2050, it is unclear how a shrinking group of young people can generate the wealth needed to support the growing cohort of elderly citizens. Europe's competitiveness could fall behind younger and growing populations in other world regions. _NS
Australia is another far-flung member of the Anglosphere with fairly bright prospects -- if it can avoid Keven Rudd's Obamaesque energy starvation policies. Australia is rich in natural resources, and is seen as a very attractive immigration destination.

New Zealand is yet another Anglospheric nation that has enormous potential -- if its government can resist the stagnant influences of hyper-statism that have dogged Europe for so long.

The picture for the US is more mixed, depending upon region and state. The more bloated the governmental bureaucracy, the more difficult it will be to regain prosperity, after the global recession eases. The election of Obama in 2008 was an enormous setback for the US. But some regions of the US will thrive despite Obama reich fascism, corruption, and energy starvation.

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Blogger Eshenberg said...

Empty Japan,South Korea,Europa(good infrastructure) and even Russia will not stay they will be populated the same person what Canada,Australia,New Zealand and USA,just like the whole world ;)
P.S.Don't put lot of hope they will speak English and will dominate non-west(or east Asian) culture!


Tuesday, 29 September, 2009  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe in comparison to European nations we are in good shape but there are a lot of reforms I would want to see made and a lot of prospects for following Europe's dismal path. My only hope is that the Obama example will be instructive enough to give my fellow Canadians (or at least their kids) cause for pause and a second thought or two about socialism.

Tuesday, 29 September, 2009  
Blogger al fin said...

Yes. Europe is less socialist than it used to be, but the socialism that remains is incompatible with the shrinking demographics.

Not to mention that Europe could never have gotten away with its vast social spending infrastructure if not for the US defense umbrella making it unnecessary for western Europe, at least, to defend itself from the expansionary USSR.

Unfortunately for eastern Europe, the US was too late and wobbly to save them from their decades of hell under the USSR.

Tuesday, 29 September, 2009  
Blogger neil craig said...

Now if only there were something to global warming the Canadians would have it made ;-)

Perhaps orbital mirrors will achieve some of the same effect.

Wednesday, 30 September, 2009  

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