06 January 2009

Sick, Dying Cultures of Europe, Japan, Russia

It is perfectly possible for entire peoples to live only for their own pleasure and feel nothing for their prospective obliteration. How else should we explain fertility rates in Europe and Japan at barely half of replacement? _Spengler
Europe, Japan, Russia. Modern cultures without a future. Russia is fading the fastest due to the lethal combination of high death rates with low birth rates. Europe and Japan have healthier economic prospects than Russia, but low birthrates doom them to ghost cultures, certain to have their lands overrun and occupied by others.
"The peoples of the world foresee a time when their land with its rivers and mountains still lies under Heaven as it does today, but other people dwell there; when their language is entombed in books, and their laws and customers have lost their living power." _Rosenzweig as quoted by Spengler
No amount of decadent excess, or of saber rattling will hold back the forces of demographics and history.

The Anglosphere (US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand), China, and India are three "empires" on one side of the future. Islamist supremacist globalist states are arrayed on the other. Where will Europe, Russia, and Japan align among the four supernational arrays? Europe and Russia are likely to be overrun by the Islamist strain, with the far east of Russia going to China. Pockets of resistance inside Europe may align with the Anglosphere.

Japan will likely align with China, and begin accepting Chinese immigrants, while maintaining trading ties with India and the Anglosphere. Africa stands to be parceled out yet again, to the great powers. Latin America may maintain some neutrality (Argentina, parts of Brazil, Uruguay), although parts may go to China, India, or the Islamic alliance. The Anglosphere may eventually grow strong threads into Central America, and as far into South America as Colombia or even Chile.

Nuclear weapons currently in Russia and Europe will be captured by Islamist groups and used against the various perceived enemies of the rising Caliphate. Wars will be fought for territory at the borders of the great empires. Thailand will be torn between the Chinese, Indian, and Islamic empires. Singapore will likewise be coveted by those three, while trying to maintain its ties to the Anglosphere.

Read Spengler's article linked above. Then take a long look at a map of the world. Puzzle it out. Which cultures will live, and which will die? How will the survivor's align themselves? The future is dynamic and unpredictable, but current social and demographic trends suggest some possible "chaotic attractor" scenarios.

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Blogger Audacious Epigone said...

The European TFR in the US is only ~1.8--considerably below replenishment. We're in a boat a lot like Europe's, ours just doesn't have as many holes in it yet, because we're younger than Europe is, so we have more time to turn it around.

Why do you think Japan will align with China? There is a lot of tension between the two, and Chinese growth and increasing influence is accentuating that. I tend to take the late Sam Huntington's conception of Japan as a unique, 'stand alone' civilization.

Tuesday, 06 January, 2009  
Blogger Eshenberg said...

He's history look is difference from my...USA is not quite supra-ethnic country,such country can't exist long,history always remember to us! but the same to ethnic country's can say... Europeans who live in Anglosphere country don't have better demographic situation;) I think Sir,You and Mr.Spengler not see the danger from Africa,Negroid(Congoid) race,in the middle of century,they will be 1/3 of world population and supra-ethnic favour to conquer land,resources!
But it all is nothing special,because We all will live in world were are no borders,one language,one blood,on culture etc..."supra-ethnic peace".. or die off.org :)

Tuesday, 06 January, 2009  
Blogger Snake Oil Baron said...

He currently seems to hold it to be possible that Europe (much of it at least) will fall to Islamic ideology but he argues well back in 2005 that Islam's strength is overrated with its fertility collapsing and its population aging. These positions are not necessarily contradictory but it makes it hard to pin down what he thinks is likely.

I think he is right about Christianity in China becoming a major factor in future global politics. Chinese and African Christians who were converted by the more evangelical and independent missionary groups are not as likely to heed the call of Western established churches to not step on Muslim toes by evangelizing in the Islamic world. This, and the rush for the resources of Central Asia and Russia will bring a lot of tension to international relations and bring China, India and sub-Saharan African nations into greater conflict with the Islamic world at a time when its oil revenue and youth bulges are slacking off.

The recent action by Israel against Hamas demonstrates something interesting. Once a nation has been thoroughly convinced by every effort that the world has no interest in their side of the story; that every act of violence and terror against them will be ignored, rationalized or even celebrated - even participated in - by the UN and humanity in general, then P.R. and diplomacy become irrelevant. A self-preservation policy begins to take precedence over pleasing those who would tell one to "go back to the ovens".

Tuesday, 06 January, 2009  
Blogger al fin said...

Baron, have you read "Suicide of Reason" by Harris? Europe has no ideology of significance but multiculturalism, which is no match for fanatical Islamism and fast breeding first cousins on welfare. In two generations, the fertility rate may slow, but by then what will be left?

Martins, the numbers of Africans will rise based upon birthrates. Whether those high numbers will be of significance militarily in 50 years outside of Africa, I am not sure.

AE: The scenario is purely speculative. China may indeed break up into competing warlord-led fiefdoms before 2020. Otherwise, if China keeps building energy infrastructure, and the US Obamanation and Europe keep cutting back on energy out of fear of global warming, China may be the only country worth trading with, for Japan.

Tuesday, 06 January, 2009  
Blogger Markku said...

Since when has India been an empire? And what is this Islamic Empire? A new Caliphate? There not gonna be an Islamic Empire anytime soon. The Islamic world is way too fragmented theologically, geographically, politically, and economically to form a unified block, let alone an unified state.

Wednesday, 07 January, 2009  
Blogger J said...

All wrong. Demography is important, but not all. On the basis of demography, the Mongol empire founded by Ghengis Khan could never happened, since the Mongols were a small, heterogenous population in nowhere, yet in a generation exterminated or took over most of the world. In just one summer raid they decimated Hungary´s population 25%. The same about the Manchu. The same about the Vandals and the Franks and so on. The Arabs were just a few thousand pastoralists when suddenly changed the world. The Anglosaxon people was only 2 or 4 million individuals in an island just three centuries ago. It can be safely presumed that on the margins, small existing groups or groups in formation are preparing themselves for changing, once more, history.

Wednesday, 07 January, 2009  
Blogger Eshenberg said...

Markku- geographic it's not problem today(in future)and Arabian peninsula country's are creating something like EU,monetary in the beginning.
Ah forget than China fertility also is only 1.7. And Japan don't can stay neutral,they will need immigrants(faster it happens or slower it's only matter of time),so they will change to face,language,culture,blood-the same what whit Rome empire happen and other great civilizations!
Sayonara :)

Wednesday, 07 January, 2009  
Blogger Ugh said...

Not sure what "J" was getting at, but I totally concur that Europe's multiculturalism is its death knell. Multiculturalism believes that all cultures are worthy and important except your own. What country, what system can survive such self-hatred? Only the educated and aggressive can survive overwhelming numbers - that's how Britain became an empire. They ceased being and empire when ceased being aggressive. While I dislike Michael Savage on so many levels his tag line I believe is largely correct - only a more savage nation will survive.

Wednesday, 07 January, 2009  

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