30 November 2008

Which Will Collapse First? Russia or the US

Russian politicians predict great calamities for the US, and one Russian analyst predicts the US will soon collapse and break apart--perhaps as soon as next spring? But it is the much smaller and more narrow-based economy of Russia that appears to be in the biggest trouble.
Prices are on the rise from Kaliningrad in the west to Vladivostok in Russia's far east. Unemployment is growing rapidly, and even management at Lukoil, Russia's largest oil company, is slashing its own salaries by 60 percent. There has been no official acknowledgement of any of these problems. _Spiegel
While the Russian government needs the price of oil to be at least $75 a barrel, the actual price has spent a lot of time recently below $55 a barrel. Putin's bluster would sound less like a squeal if his oil-dependent economy was running on more than vapours.
Russia's economy is spiraling downhill much faster than many expected just a few weeks ago. Companies have slashed up to a fifth of their staff, economists have drastically cut their growth forecasts, there are concerns of a steep currency devaluation and oil prices are in the doldrums — no good thing for an economy based on energy exports.

As the economy buckles, speculation is rising over how the country's leadership — which has so far played down the crisis — will weather the storm.

During his eight-year presidency, Vladimir Putin rode a wave of popularity as the country prospered on soaring oil profits and flexed its military muscle. But as the signs of his successes crumble around him, Putin, now prime minister, is heading for his toughest popularity test yet. _Source
The transformation of Russia into a thuggish oil dictatorship--similar to Iran and Venezuela--has not made it easier for Tsar Vlad to reassure a Russian public that has long grown accustomed to being lied to by their government.
“The Iranians, the Russians and the Venezuelans, who had benefited the most from the rise in price, are the ones paying dearly now with the collapse,” said Lawrence Goldstein, a veteran energy analyst.

...The Russian energy minister, Sergei Shmatko, on Tuesday suggested that his country might reduce its output in tandem with OPEC. He said that Russia required $95 a barrel next year, otherwise its budget would be strained and its currency would suffer.

But with its production already declining this year because of a lack of investments, it is unlikely that Russia will follow through, analysts said. _NYT
While the destruction of the US economy and the US Constitution by Obama and the Pelosi Congress is a work in progress, the fragile economy of Russia and its rapidly dwindling population of ethnic Russians, is a fait accompli--largely contributed to by Tsar Vlad himself.

Russia is once again a land of state-controlled media, diminishing freedoms of speech by private citizens, and a resurgence of the SVR (replacement for the KGB), along with an increasingly brutal foreign policy that seems to be attempting to reformulate the failed USSR.

So, is it a race to the collapse between the old cold war adversaries? Not so fast. A lot of things are certain to happen between now and the collapse, which should surprise most of us. The incompetent new US government must still perform the unutterably stupid acts of dissolution it has promised its moon fluttering candle flame bombing supporters, before the US economy will be stuck at low tide. Only if the narcissist-elect and his loony crew of congressional enablers follow through on their electoral promises, will the western world truly be in big trouble.

That is what Putin is counting on, because it is the only thing that will shoot oil costs through the roof and save the oil tyrants--for the US to commit economic suicide, as Obama has promised. If Obama turns the US into a dead carcass, Putin will be more than happy to feed off the remains.


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Blogger Eshenberg said...

Russian VDK(KGB) elite will try make out war,to solidarity they ethnic,religious and political country,for a while- last time!

Monday, 01 December, 2008  
Blogger Eshenberg said...

Sorry for double post,but I just find interesting statistic.
Only 2% Russians citizens in near future plan afford a childreN.
18-34 year (12-13%)plan children!
35-44 year (2%)
About 18< years old don't know.....
60% don't want children not now,not even in future ;)
CCP need learn from them!! how annihilate nation!

Monday, 01 December, 2008  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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