22 October 2008

Coalition Hardball: Obama and the Ayatollah

In politics as in revolutions, the side with the strongest coalition usually wins. The coalition does not necessarily need to survive the acquisition of power. When the radical Iranian Islamists rose to power, some of the first elements to be purged (killed) were former coalition members that had become liabilities--leftists, communists, political liberals and civil libertarians. The same thing happened when the Bolsheviks achieved power in early 20th century Russia and when the Sandinistas achieved power in Nicaragua. If a coalition outlives its usefulness, it will usually be dismantled.

In the US, the two large political parties consist of uneasy coalitions of convenience. As the economic and political fortunes of various parts of the coalitions rise and fall, the viability and political power of the major parties also tend to rise and fall. As long as the US depends upon elections to determine its governmental makeup, coalitions will matter. Only when a coalition leads to a dictatorship or a complete loss of power does a coalition tend to come apart completely.

Permanent institutional changes in American education favors the creation of government dependency mentality in the young. Hyper-specialization of function due to urbanization, high technology, and mental laziness, also lends to an attitude of "let the government do it" when the question of solving problems comes up. This automatic deferral to government solutions for all problems of society makes it much easier for populist smoke-blowers such as Obama to rise to the top.

Fueled by a complicit media, an indoctrinating academy from K-12 through university, a dumbed-down popular culture, an out of control immigration situation, a dominant "resentment culture" in the black community, and the will to power among big money elements such as big labor, big environmental interests, and leftist activists financed by the super-rich, the coalition driving the Democratic Party is energized and growing.

Opinion polls suggest that the Republican Coalition will be the big loser this year, although the reliability of opinion polls has never been particularly good. But should the Republicans be soundly defeated in the real elections, a significant rethinking of their coalition and of particular elements within the coalition, will be necessary.

Obama's motley coalition, if it wins, will be the victim of its own success, like most winning coalitions. Many of the revolution's children will be eaten by the revolution. That can't be helped. Incredible disillusionment will follow the initial euphoria, over time. But as power becomes more firmly entrenched in the hands of fewer and fewer top manipulators, expendable elements of the winning coalition will be pruned and thrown away.

All of that is inevitable and unimportant. The important events will be happening off-stage, where US media can safely ignore them. As the Obama revolution bulls its headstrong and oblivious path, ignoring many centuries of hard-won lessons in checks and balances, market economics, and limits to government power, the inevitable backlash from the real world--a world the media and government propaganda lackeys can't control--will bring hardships to the electorate that they had not expected.

It will finally dawn on some backers of the revolution that larger government is not the best solution for most problems. Others will suspect betrayal or weakness within the revolution that prevents it from achieving its promise. But most will follow the media in blaming some scapegoat or another from outside the revolutionary coalition. The revolutionary coalition will show cracking and pitting, but not quickly enough to do the underlying society any good.

Here is the real unspoken 300 ton gorilla in the room: the US is not alone in the world. If the US adopts a posture of weakness a la Obama, the US will be challenged far more fiercely than anything seen within the past 40 or 50 years. Obama's coalition is strong, in terms of winning a US election as an oppositional party. As a ruling coalition, it will be a disaster.

When faced by foreign coalitions far more accomplished in the Machiavellian arts more than willing to practice the arts of death to achieve their ends, the pretend "masters of the universe" within the Obama coalition will find themselves outmatched.

Obama's coalition cannot lead. It is not a leading coalition, it is an oppositional coalition. It has all the substance of a music video and the solidity of a paper tiger. It is meant to hold together long enough to disorient the staid traditionalists and energize the young and the vengeful. So far it has achieved its purposes.

Coalition politics has never been the Republicans' strong suit. While they are in fact a coalition today -- ranging from the country club set to Bible belt Christians -- it is a very uneasy coalition. So long as the Dow Jones average is up and taxes are down, the country club set is happy. _Thomas Sowell
Sowell points out that the willingness of the Bible Belt Christians in the Republican coalition to fall on their swords of abortion to make a symbolic point--at the expense of winning an election--is making them a far less valuable part of the coalition than they would be otherwise. At this historical point in the US, the issue of abortion is far more likely to lose an election than to win one. So much for being concerned about the rights of the unborn.

Sowell is certainly right about the weakness of Republican coalition, when compared to the current Democratic coalition's incarnation. Which leaves one coalition element usually not mentioned--heavy firepower. Most members of the military vote Republican, but unless you expect a military coup to occur, the political views of the military rarely figure into practical politics. The military follows the orders of the CINC.

The Democratic Party has the backing of militant elements among minority communities, but even more, it has the backing of organized crime as allied with organized labor and corrupt big city political machines, such as Mayor Daley's Chicago mob conglomerate. From the Nation of Islam to Earth First to politically connected gangs and mobs, the Democratic Party has firepower on the street, where it can count.

Of course, should ordinary Americans ever decide to arm themselves and organize in defense against the mobs, count on the news media to accuse them of vigilantism and right wing extremism, and count on politicians to again try to disarm peaceful citizens, while doing nothing to neutralize the criminal mobs that can prove so useful to politicians.

Alice Finkel


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Blogger fboness said...

Sounds like you foresee a Zimbabwe.

Wednesday, 22 October, 2008  
Blogger Ugh said...

Count me as quite impressed Alice. Excellent insight and foresight. This article is like watching a train wreck before it happens on some fantastical FutureScope thingy!

Wednesday, 22 October, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

fboness: Zimbabwe is a good example of a revolution that consumed its sons and daughters. The US has further to fall, but more groups interested in helping it fall.

staticnoise: Thanks. I took most of the ideas from Mr. Fin's unpublished notes.

Wednesday, 22 October, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Crisys are good if you are able to be prepared to exploit their possibilities.
After Obama, if he win (I'm not so sure) the negros of US will find very difficult to reassert to be victims of the withe majority. And the withe majority will be free to assert that they showed their openmindedness electing Obama.

Saturday, 25 October, 2008  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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