27 April 2008

Runaway Expertitis: Low-IQ Societies Vulnerable

Imagine living in a world where the average IQ is 70. There are plenty of people, since procreation is more or less instinctive and requires no particular thought, training, or discipline. But effective health care is in short supply, so one makes due with witch doctors. People die of a lot of diseases which are virtually non-existent in more intelligent societies. Fuel is in short supply, so one strips the land of vegetation for cooking fires. Neighboring tribes procreate as fast or faster than you, so tribal wars and feuds occur regularly. Rivers become open sewers, life is nasty, brutish, and short.

Now imagine that a small sub-population exists within your population. The average IQ of this sub-population is 100. These "subs" build cities, hospitals, schools. They provide modern medical care and electricity. They provide clean water and sanitary disposal of wastes. They also occupy almost all of the important jobs in the advanced society they have created among you.

You outnumber them 10 to 1. You want what they have. What do you do?

Now imagine a society with an average IQ of about 100. It has electricity, modern medical care, clean water and sanitary treatment of wastes. It has universities, doctors, engineers, scientists. But it also has politicians that demand more and more control over people's lives every year. It has "experts" at the beck and call of powerful interests and politicians who provide public pronouncements over the news wires and air waves that substantiate the needs and demands of the powerful politicians and special interests. These politicians with the willing assistance of the "experts" are spending your society into ruin--just to maintain their power. Their policies are destroying your freedoms and your livelihood.

You outnumber them 10 to 1. What do you do?Imagine a society with an average IQ of 200. Each individual is trained to be competent in many different skills and areas of expertise. There is no permanent political class, or legal/judicial class. Every person is qualified to act as arbitrator or adjudicator of most simple disagreements.

The resource limitations that spark tribal wars in the "70 IQ range" and class warfare in the "90 to 100 IQ range" are not existent at higher levels of IQ. Resource limitations are largely a function of the incompetence that comes with low IQ, and low IQ methods of education.

Basic modern human services can be provided by societies with average IQs of 90 and above. If the average IQ is between 80 and 90, some services can be provided, but coverage will be very spotty. If the average IQ is below 80, without outside help, the situation is unsustainable in terms of modern technology.

Source for top image and tableWhat is "expertitis?" It is the overdependence of society on the opinions of hyper-specialised individuals whose conclusions and recommendations cannot be properly vetted for validity. We see such a phenomenon in climate science at this time. Climate modelers are given undue authority to speak for the entire broad field of climate science--and all scientists who dissent from the radical recommendations of the modelers are derogated as "deniers", dishonest, or otherwise demonised as unreliable. The dissenters are denied tenure, denied publication, denied research funding. As long as expertise is politically determined, and only the experts are listened to, society is being victimised by "expertitis." This is more likely to occur in a low-IQ society, but even in an average IQ society it can occur when most citizens have been educated in an inferior educational system--as in current government school systems.

IQ Range



Typical Educability


Below 30


>1% below 30


Unemployable. Institutionalized.

30 to 50


>1% below 50

1st-Grade to 3rd-Grade

Simple, non-critical household chores.

50 to 60


1.5% below 60

3rd-Grade to 6th-grade

Very simple tasks, close supervision.

60 to 74


5% below 74

6th-Grade to 8th-Grade

"Slow, simple, supervised."

74 to 89


25% below 89

8th-Grade to 12th-Grade

Assembler, food service, nurse's aide

89 to 100


50% below 100

8th-Grade to 1-2 years of College.

Clerk, teller, Walmart

100 to 111


1 in 2 above 100

12th-Grade to College Degree

Police officer, machinist, sales

111 to 120


1 in 4 above 111

College to Master's Level

Manager, teacher, accountant

120 to 125


11 in 10above 120

College to Non-Technical Ph. D.'s.

Manager, professor, accountant

125 to 132


1 in 20 above 125

Any Ph. D. at 3rd-Tier Schools

Attorney, editor, executive.

132 to 137


1 in 50 above 132

No limitations.

Eminent professor, editor

137 to 150


1 in 100 above 137

No limitations.

Leading math, physics professor

150 to 160


1 in 1,100 above 150

No limitations

Lincoln, Copernicus, Jefferson

160 to 174


1 in 11,000 above 160

No limitations

Descartes, Einstein, Spinoza

174 to 200


1 in 1,000,000

above 174

No limitations

Shakespeare, Goethe, Newton


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Blogger Markku said...

I'm looking forward to getting gradually Moravec transfered in the process of having synthetic neurons added to my brain and having the original biological ones replaced by them in the course of a long time. I'm much more comfortable with that than being uploaded and disposed of while unconscious.

Monday, 28 April, 2008  
Blogger Richard Sharpe said...

Experience tells us that if you have a high-IQ group within the larger population (and when did such not exist because of assortative mating and the benefits of boosting the social and technical intelligence of your offspring) that the high-IQ group rarely has the interests of the whole at heart.

It should also be clear that the only way to shift the overall IQ of the whole group in one direction or another involves preventing many people from having offspring or other messy interventions.

Moreover, when your wellbeing depends on bilking the rubes, surely you want there to be a continuing adequate supply so that your offspring have the same sort of opportunities as you have?

Monday, 28 April, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

Markku: I agree that replacing short-lived neurons with longer-lived and better functioning neurons makes better sense than the mystical "uploading" scenario.

Richard: Yes. Normal variance is one thing. In the low-IQ society, some of the families may form dynasties as leaders, warrior chieftains, witch doctors, etc, and only inter-marry within the high caste.

But what I am referring to is a revolutionary break in the natural order. An average IQ of 100 is a revolutionary break from an average IQ of 70. Such a difference could have only occurred with two (or more) population groups evolving in relative isolation from each other. That is why outsiders are periodically driven out of the low IQ societies.

An average IQ of 200 would be an even greater revolutionary break from the 100 IQ average.

We can only imagine the consequences of such a radical break with conventional continuity.

Interventions will be necessary, as you say. How messy they turn out to be depends upon how smart we really are.

Monday, 28 April, 2008  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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