11 March 2008

Go See Europe: While It Lasts

The fertility rate for Spain is 1.15 children per woman. Replacement level is 2.1 children per woman. European levels across the board are below 1.5. Europe is shrinking, Europe is dying. Looking at Spain (from a Dennis Mangan comment):1.15 Children per female birthrate in Spain...

200 people have 115 children.
115 children have 66 grandchildren.
66 grandchildren have 38 great grandchildren.......

It is clear that as indigenous Spaniards, Russians, Germans, and French decline rapidly, third world immigrants to Europe will be procreating at rates well above 3.0 children per woman. With polygamy fueled by young female immigration and supported by state welfare payments, the fertility rate for third worlders in Europe could easily reach 5.0, per 1st generation woman. But if you think about it, even with a fertility rate barely above replacement, third worlders would replace Europeans within a few generations! You must include European decline juxtaposed to third world incline, when looking at demographic projections.
Russian Population
The poorer the nation, the higher the fertility rate. Understand that the poorer the nation, the greater the motivation to emigrate away from the third world toward the first world. The overcrowding from high fertility accelerates the poverty, and acts as a physical force to push uneducated third worlders over to Europe.As illiterate third worlders replace the voting populations of modern Europe, the outlook of European governments will necessarily change. Infrastructure will necessarily break down for lack of upkeep. Cities of Europe will resemble Beirut at its worst. Recent elections in Kenya will become the model for European elections. Europe is growing old, while poorer and less literate nations are remaining young, and reproducing rapidly. The surplus young will continue pouring across porous borders, looking for opportunity wherever it presents itself. While the opportunity held out by the USA is the opportunity to work hard and prosper, the opportunity that Europe presents to the third world is the opportunity to receive generous state welfare payments. Europe may as well erect billboards across the third world: "Come to Europe and have many children--on our dime!"

If you take into account that a large slice of Europe's best educated and most energetic people are emigrating from Europe to the far-flung Anglosphere, the situation appears particularly bleak for Europe. And Europe's brightest and most ambitious who choose to stay at home? Their fertility rate is even lower than that of their nation's as a whole. Much lower. So visit while you can. While Europe still exists as Europe.

Transition of Europe and Japan to labour shortage economies
Fascinating Philip Longman PDF presentation on depopulation
Russian plans to reverse population decline
No Easy Answers

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Blogger The Irrefutable Fool said...

Maybe they should use the some of the vast wealth generated this century ( greater than any other time in history) to pay for some welfare moms?

Truly as it currently stands in first world societies it is an economic disadvantage to have children.

Tuesday, 11 March, 2008  
Blogger Vedantin said...

You assume that the current situation is going to continue throughout the next generations. Considering how much it has changed in the preceding ones, isn't that assuming too much?

By situation, I mean both the birth rate in Europe, and also the economic status, which, as you rightly claim, has a considerable effect on the birth rate. Both of these underwent drastic, unexpected changes in the past century. Why should this one be any different?

Tuesday, 11 March, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

I fully expect fertility rates to change, but not necessarily all in the same direction.

European women will continue to have low fertility rates--the higher the education level for the woman, the less likely for her to bear children.

First generation immigrants on welfare will experience higher fertility rates, as the improved financial situation allows.

First generation immigrants not on welfare will have stable or lowered fertility rates--at a higher level than indigenous Europeans, but on a parallel path.

Later generations of immigrants will have lower fertility rates than previous generations, but still higher than indigenous Europeans.

You must remember that when young male immigrants and children of immigrants send back to the old country for a young bride, the bride will still have the old world mentality--higher fertility thinking.

This "first generation thinking" can be re-injected into the immigrant community generation after generation, for as long as young males send to the third world for brides.

Tuesday, 11 March, 2008  
Blogger Vedantin said...

That may well be right. But did you consider the possibility that those third world countries could get richer, and thus the "higher fertility thinking" there could be compromised? Take India, for instance. Lots of Indians move to other immigrate to other coutries all over the world. They have always had a high fertility rate. But India's economy is growing very rapidly. Wouldn't that mean, according to your model, that the fertility rate there will soon drop?

Another factor, which you may or may not consider a possibility, is that the economy of Western countries could suffer a blow sometime. Like it did in the 1920's, for instance. Who knows, maybe it wouldn't recover as easily this time. In fact, many people are of the opinion that this is already happening. Wouldn't that affect the birth rate of indigenous Europeans?

Tuesday, 11 March, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

In the case of caste-conscious India, it is extremely unlikely for economic good times to hit everyone simultaneously. While birth rates for elite levels may drop, for the majority it will likely be more of the same.

The effect of an economic depression in the west on fertility rates will not be uniform either. For some westerners the birth rate would drop even farther--as a reflection of unfavorable circumstances for having children.

For others--particularly religiously devout westerners and those with a strong "can-do" attitude, fertility may go up. This is most likely in a farm or rural environment, where the labour is always needed.

Russia is a good example of a semi-western nation that experienced a period of serious economic chaos in the 1990s and early 2000s. Fertility rates there continued a pre-existing downturn.

Tuesday, 11 March, 2008  
Blogger Jen said...

Bruce Thornton discusses "Europe’s ongoing demographic suicide" in a video series on NRO TV this week:


Saturday, 15 March, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

Interesting, jen. Thornton has hit on one of the several reasons for Europe's self administered demise. It goes deeper, of course.

There is a self-punitive aspect to Europe's combination of failure to breed, plus welcoming and financing its own conquest by more primitive peoples.

Monday, 17 March, 2008  

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