04 January 2008

The Real Climate Debate: A Russian Point of View

Russian scientists failed to get the memo that told them the climate debate was over. I suppose they recognise Lysenkoism when they see it.
The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason—solar activity and luminosity. The greater they are the warmer is our climate.

Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.

This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide, warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not undergone any serious check.

Notice that the Russian academician makes predictions which can be falsified within the next ten--even five years. Contrast that level of confidence with computer models giving predictions for 90 or 100, or 1000s of years in the future. Long distance forecasting is too much like Nostradamus. I prefer scientific hypotheses that can be falsified within a reasonable timeframe. Whatever you may call unfalsifiable theorising--using computers or not,--it is not science.

Via Green Watch

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Blogger Towards infinity said...

Hm, wanted to submit this article to you in light of your interests but failed to do so due to the questionable quality of the English translation...

I do not fully agree with the good doctor *g but still it sums up very nicely the stash of contentments with the current official doctrine (yep i like the word doctrine in this context).

Friday, 04 January, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

Yes. Some of the Russian scientists appear quite certain about the coming "ice age", at least a multi-decadal cooling.

My stance is that the "debate" has been prematurely closed by political forces impinging upon scientific funding and publishing. Not to mention the hyper-partisanship of the mainstream media which attempts to exaggerate an already exaggerated "consensus."

Friday, 04 January, 2008  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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