30 December 2007

Will Communist China Survive to 2014?

An astute analyst must always look beneath the surface of a culture, society, nation, civilisation. Pay attention not to what the ruling class is claiming, but rather to the underlying reality they may be attempting to obscure.

Take the case of mainland China. On the surface, the economy is booming and destined to surpass that of the US within the next decade. But what is really happening, behind the curtain?
China, it turns out, isn't a $10-trillion economy on the brink of catching up with the United States. It is a $6-trillion economy, less than half our size. For the foreseeable future, China will have far less money to spend on its military and will face much deeper social and economic problems at home than experts previously believed.

What happened to $4 trillion in Chinese gross domestic product?....Statistics.
Fall of China

AP writes that “The World Bank said the economies of China and India are about 40 percent smaller than earlier estimates after it revised calculations using consumers' relative purchasing power to measure economic might.

The new figures released by the World Bank on Monday differ from conventional GDP figures, which are calculated by simply converting local statistics into US dollars - but don't take into account the wide variations in the purchasing power of a dollar from country to country. …

Under the new estimates, the number of Chinese living on less than $1 a day …is nearly 300 million. The earlier estimates put that figure at 100 million. …”

It is a matter of playing with numbers. But regardless of how you calculate relative purchasing power, you absolutely must pay attention to the ominous signs of impending collapse within China's corrupt and hastily constructed infrastructure.

A recent Nanowerk scenario projected the Chinese Communist government collapsing in the year 2014, from inner turmoil. It is difficult to predict such catastrophic dissolutions. During the 20th century, most communist governments collapsed of their own incompetence and corruption. China has moved away from central planning--to some extent--which is one reason why so much foreign investment has flooded into the country. But that investment could easily dry up as quickly as it began.

The widespread poverty, pollution, corruption, incompetence, and unresponsiveness to the average persons' concerns, suggest a dark future for China's current regime. If China is to collapse, it will not be the way the Nanowerk scenario projects.

China's long history of warlordism--competing governments situated on the mainland--suggests that China will schism into several pieces. Each piece will be controlled by strongman rule. The piece of China closest to Siberia will almost certainly move to annex a large piece of Russian East Siberia. The table is already set for such a move Other warlords will likely move to assert dominance wherever they can.

When the dissolution of China occurs, a similar dissolution of Russia is almost inevitable. Russia lacks the manpower and conventional military might to prevent it.

Which is where the danger of apocalypse truly begins. Lacking a conventional deterrent to prevent its Siberian treasure chest from being taken by warlords from China and central Asia, Russia will be tempted to execute nuclear strikes--tactical at first--to stop the land-grab. If tactical strikes are ineffective, strategic missiles targeted to the population centers for the invading forces would follow. Then Pandora's box would open completely.

Putin believes he is being clever by upgrading his nuclear force, to back up his global power plays. He is clearly not a discerning student of history and historical forces that drive mass human action.

The scenario will continue--perhaps sooner than any of us wish.

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Blogger Towards infinity said...

If we ignore for a moment the marketing claim put up by the government, is then China not much rather a hypercapitalist state laking the hindering democracy - the wet dream of Milton-Friedman-esque free market? sort of Chile++ or modern Russia minus Potempkin-Village democracy? I certainly see not much communism left in China just the same cronnies in charge just the paradigma switched. Smoothl transition if you ignore the few hundred or so crushed pro democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen square. (http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/documents/index.html)

Sunday, 30 December, 2007  
Blogger al fin said...

Capitalism without democracy would resemble fascism in a way. Certainly in China, anyone at all can be arrested and executed in short order, should the government decide it expedient to do so, as long as they are not foreign nationals. Who could possibly object? Only someone who wished to become an organ donor, I suppose.

It is China's government that calls itself "communist" (CCP). Who am I to give it another designation?

Sunday, 30 December, 2007  
Blogger Will Brown said...

I think this World Bank report makes clear that the PRC requires the resources of Siberia just to placate the majority of it's people by diverting their energies and ambitions toward acquiring (relative) wealth for themselves from that unrealised region.

Vlad I's nuclear response will almost certainly fission China back into warring provences and be his excuse to level the 'stans and Chechnya to varying degree. As long as he (and an operative core of his functionaries) survive the subsequent missile exchange, his position and - by monarchial definition - Russia's as well, will be improved.

Now to 2014 seems a reasonable timeframe I think. Certainly, PRC China hasn't more then a year or two at most to stave off fractionation from internal competition for succession and simple greed amongst the current division of contenders.

Sunday, 30 December, 2007  
Blogger Unknown said...

Many good people have been working hard for decades to be rid of the Ccp. Take a look at this site for example over 30 million people have resigned from the Ccp in the last 4 years. http://ninecommentaries.com/

The genocide of the peaceful Falun Gong has undermined the very control of the Ccp. Human rights before Olympics is the main wish of the 800 million Chinese who are not benefiting from economics. The 400 million who are still have no basic human rights re freedom of belief and speech etc.

Time is short..

Sunday, 30 December, 2007  
Blogger Ugh said...

This is worrisome insofar as American (Western) business has exported so much of our manufacturing capacity to China. If you remember a certain reporter did an experimental boycott of Chinese made products for one year and she and her family were literally counting down the days until it ended. It was excruciating.

When China's meltdown occurs our economy is going to suffer badly.

Don't forget that China had it's own baby boom after the war and within 10 years the boomers will be entering old age. Do you suppose there is a nice SS check and medicare waiting for them? My guess is more like suicide pills and mass graves... If the pollution doesn't get them first.

Monday, 31 December, 2007  
Blogger al fin said...

Will: China will not move openly in Siberia until everything is ready. As more Chinese nationals illegally emigrate to Eastern Siberia and take on more skilled and semi-skilled positions, Putin will be forced to accept them to maintain production. But when China does move the loyalties of the workers will not be to Russia. It will happen in the middle of turmoil somewhere else--probably in the middle east or Central/South America.

Jana: Thank you for those links. I admire your efforts and those of the many others like you.

Craig: The funny thing about manufacturing capacity these days is that it can pick up and move at almost a moment's notice. There is a lot of unused capacity in South and East Asia outside of China.

China only has the wealth it has because of outside investment and the relative openness to outside corps and entrepreneurs. The capitalist brains of the operation could as easily work from Singapore, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, India etc.

The leaders of the CCP are greedy, small-minded and vicious. Much like Putin, Kim, Chavez, and the mad mullahs.

While such criminal autocrats maintain control over large portions of the world's wealth, we will be in for a wild ride.

Of course, I am something of an optimist in the long run. In the short run, we need to learn to enjoy solving problems.

Monday, 31 December, 2007  
Blogger Unknown said...

Al fin,

Thanks for the support and recognition of what is good in this failing world.

The courage that many people have in China at this time comes from the Falun Gong practitioners deep commitment to the very best of human nature Truth compassion and forbearance. Thru this persecution in China many Chinese people have had the opportunity to hear and meet with Falun Gong practitioners and even seen their faith change their torturers hearts towards goodness to proclaim Falun Gong is good.

Here is a link to a Christian Human rights lawyer in China Gao Zhisheng who has spoken up and written letters about Falun Gong to President Hu and Premier Wen Ziabao.

Gao Zhisheng's third open letter to Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao


Gao has now been arrested again and no one has heard from since Nov 2007. The Us Congress has tried to raise its concerns over Attorney Gao and it is because of this that we understand the Ccp may be trying to break his spirit but have not murdered him.

Monday, 31 December, 2007  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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