Russia's Problems Further Highlighted

Out of Russia's 140 million people, between 20 million and 25 million are Muslims.

If population trends continue at the current rate, Muslims could outnumber ethnic Russians in 30 years, al-Jazeera reports. More Russians are dying each year than being born, due in large measure to the popularity of abortion (Russian women had almost 13 abortions for every 10 live births in 2003), alcohol, and suicide.

Meanwhile, Russia's Muslim population has grown by 40 percent since 1989, the result of a high birth rate and continued immigration from the North Caucasus and Central Asia. There are now 25 million Muslims in Russia, and they are projected to become one-fifth of the country’s overall population by 2020. _ForeignPolicy

...with the rise of Islam, coupled with the negative growth in Russia's ethnic Slav population, dramatic change is under way.

If the trend continues, the Muslim population could outnumber ethnic Russians within 30 years. _Al Jazeera

If Russians are not procreating, but a minority 20% of the population is procreating, what will be the most popular name for newborns in the country? Muhammed? Well, at least for the boys. And where will an increasingly large portion of military conscripts originate? From the faster breeding minority, of course.

France is another country with a rapidly rising proportion of Muslims among its youth and military population. How are Muslims in the French military working out?

Over the last five years, France has been detecting, or at least fearing, loyalty problems among the fifteen percent of its soldiers who are Moslem. The military insists that these second and third generation French soldiers of, for the most part, Arab descent, are loyal. _StrategyPage

Russia's military has seen much better days. And just as high energy prices promised to allow a rapid rejuvenation of Russia's aging arsenal, commodity prices collapsed. With Russia's shrinking population, and rapidly changing demographics, how likely is it that Russia can hold its vast land empire together as one country for much longer?

The recent warship manoeuvres in the Mediterranean and Latin America were just "symbolic" gestures, carried out by the former maritime giant that was able to deploy only a small number of ships while the rest of the fleet was tied up at home without enough money to keep them in business, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said.

In February last year, a naval force led by the carrier Admiral Kuznetsov completed a two-month deployment, including a period in the Mediterranean - one of the longest of its kind since the Cold War, the IISS said in its annual Military Balance. A second naval deployment took place in October en route to an exercise with the Venezuelan Navy, and a Russian warship has joined the anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden.

Oksana Antonenko, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the institute, however, told a press conference at the launch of the Military Balance: "In military terms it was all very modest. This is not a major military comeback, it was just a symbolic deployment."

She cast doubt on Russia's ability to project force, and despite the "victory" of Russian troops in Georgia last August, their performance had highlighted their limited capabilities. She predicted that next year Moscow's defence budget would suffer from an even greater deficit. "It's hard to envisage a substantial increase in defence spending," she said. _Source

Russians are beginning to speak out against Muslim immigration, fearing that they will become a minority within their own country. Violence by Russians against Muslim immigrants is growing more common, lessening national cohesion. A similar phenomenon of decohesion is occurring within the ranks of the Russian army.

Below is a short interview with investor Jim Rogers, discussing the future of Russia and its economy:

The astounding thing, is that at the same time as the overall Russian population is shrinking by 400,000 people a year, the Muslim proportion is procreating at over twice the indigenous Russian rate. What does that tell you?

Russia faces huge challenges demographically, economically, technologically, and militarily. Russia has bullied its neighbors for far too long for any of them to feel particularly friendly toward the ailing bear. As Russia's Slavic population shrinks and becomes unable to defend Russia's huge landmass, these resentful neighbors will press inward more and more forcefully, upon the bear's rich den.

What will it take for Russia to survive? And if Russia falls, will its nuclear forces unleash a final flurry of belligerent outrage upon the world? Just hope it doesn't happen. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst....