04 July 2012

Demography is Destiny

The human population of planet Earth is expected to approach 10 billion sometime between 2050 and 2100. The number itself is not nearly so disturbing as the places where the greatest population growth is expected to occur.

As seen on the graphic above, most of the growth within the 10 most populous nations, is expected to occur in nations which are already impoverished, corrupt, and in some cases seminal hotbeds of global terrorism.

Since the above graph only includes the 10 most populous nations as of now, it does not provide a glimpse into the rapid population growth of Africa.

Data summary

World population by country

All figures in 000s. Click heading to sort table. Download this data
% change, 1950- 2011
% change 2011- 2100
% change, 1950- 2100
Latin America and the Caribbean167,368596,629687,517256.4815.23310.78
Northern America171,615347,563526,428102.5351.46206.75

Table Source

The table above provides a broad global overview of regional population growth over the next several decades. The table below looks exclusively at expected growth in the ten currently most populous nations.

But in a few decades, we should see changes in the ten most populous nations, just as we have seen such a change over the past several decades. Different populations wax and wane depending upon a large number of factors.
10 Most Populous Nations: 2000-2011: Population Trends
Rank Nation 2000 2011 Change % Change
1 China 1,278.0 1,348.0 70.0 5.5%
2 India 1,071.0 1,241.0 170.0 15.9%
3 United States 285.5 313.1 27.6 9.7%
4 Indonesia 216.2 242.3 26.1 12.1%
5 Pakistan 147.1 197.4 50.2 34.2%
6 Brazil 176.9 196.7 19.8 11.2%
7 Bangladesh 131.9 150.5 18.6 14.1%
8 Russia 146.1 142.8 (3.3) -2.3%
9 Japan 125.9 126.5 0.6 0.5%
10 Mexico 97.0 114.8 17.8 18.4%
Population in Millions
Population data from UN, except for Pakistan (from Pakistan census)
2000 Pakistan population estimated from 1998-2011 growth rate.

Table Source


1. China 429,931,000

2. India 203,415,000

3. Russia 64,903,000

4. France 35,783,000

5. Japan 33,111,000

6. Germany 29,800,000

7. Turkey 26,636,000

8. Italy 25,017,000

9. U.S. 23,192,000

10. U.K. 20,817,000 __Most Populous Nations in History Source

The above list looks at the most populous countries in 1850. Follow the link to observe the metric changing over multi-decadal intervals from 1800 to the latest available up to publishing.

Since the most rapid population growth is occurring in the most impoverished tribal areas of Earth, in populations with some of the lowest average IQs and highest homicide rates measured, the Earth is in store for what could easily be a wild and violent ride downward into rapid impoverishment.

This coming anarchy is developing at the same time that populations in more advanced nations of the world are beginning to shrink, while the governments of the most advanced nations of the world are themselves sinking into a quagmire of debt -- due to social policies of promoting dependency upon the state, and due to government strangulation of private sector economies.

Wiser persons will make preparations for this coming anarchy. Such preparations will go well beyond preparation for peak oil doom, EMP catastrophe, or simple economic collapse from any number of widely anticipated causes.

To meet the coming anarchy with a chance to survive and prosper on the other side, you will need to step out of the common herd, escape your indoctrination and conditioning, and consider the problem without preconceptions or moral judgments as best you can.

Hope for the best. Plan for the worst. And plan wisely, without expectation of wise action on the part of anyone else -- particularly your government.

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Blogger Jacob said...

The predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, imo. There seem to be odd circumstances for some demographic groups that these predictions ignore.

For example, as of the 2010 Census, there were 249000 Amish in the USA. Their population doubles every 14 years [1]. If you suppose that they will maintain that birth rate (which it seems likely to me because they maintained roughly that birth throughout the past 150+ years of societal and technological development), and you simply extrapolate that out (which has its own merits and demerits, I know), you get about 1.5 billion Amish by 2186 in the USA. Regardless of whether or not the Amish grow to be just that large of a group, it seems to me that they will be a substantial demographic in the USA during the 22nd Century. Imagine, Pennsylvania Deutsch and not Spanish may replace English as the most spoken language in North America. Yoder may replace Garcia as one of the most common last names in the USA.

Because of the Amish, I think that the North American numbers are wrong. And, it makes me suspect that that there are other outlying data points that will completely skew these predicted numbers. Very high-level models, like these population predictions or the AGW models, often miss important details that completely negate the model's predictions.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amish

Thursday, 05 July, 2012  
Blogger al fin said...

That is a good point about models, Jacob.

Real world trends are often self-limiting in ways that models fail to reflect.

The blooming urban populations in Africa, for example, are unsustainable without massive outside help. Once that help is withdrawn -- when the developed world cannot care for itself, much less for billions of dependent peoples -- such populations will collapse in violent ways.

Such a collapse will send large waves of refugees outward in all practical directions. By that time the developed world will be in a much worse position to accomodate large waves of refugees from disparate and warring cultures. The anarchy, in other words, is likely to self-propagate along with the refugee populations.

Thursday, 05 July, 2012  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The enormous birth rates in the Third World are the result of the idea that abortion is murder. If abortion is murder, it is far worse than the Holocaust. The Holocaust is the ideological base of immigration and multi-culturalism. Constantly stress this point, and the problems will disappear.

Sunday, 08 July, 2012  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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