31 January 2011

Islamic Fertility: Far from Fading

More 4 Feb 2011: Dennis Mangan looks at this issue and receives many comments, including a thought-provoking comment from "Albert" who claims to be a US government diplomatic employee in Europe. Most of Dennis' commenters feel that the Pew numbers were understated -- not including illegal immigrants who may in some countries be as large in number as legal declared immigrants. Another valid point made is that although problems with crime and hostility are significant due to the rapid expansion if Muslim immigrants, perhaps a greater problem being ignored -- in terms of crime -- is legal and illegal immigration into Europe from Subsaharan Africa, whether Muslim or not.
“The Future of the Global Muslim Population”, produced by the Pew Research Centre, a non-profit outfit based in Washington, DC, reckons Muslim numbers will soar....by 2030....from 23.4% to 26.4% of the global total. _Economist
Since most of the Muslims in Europe and Canada will be concentrated into large cities such as London, Paris, Toronto, Hamburg etc., their influence will be greater on the nation at large. Muslims are a particularly vocal and visible population, exerting an influence on civil and political affairs far out of proportion to their actual numbers or percentage of population.
THE number of Muslims in Australia will grow four times more quickly than non-Muslims over the next 20 years as the continued instability in developing Islamic countries in Southeast Asia drives migrants and refugees to these shores.

A major new study by the US-based Pew Research Centre has forecast a global surge in the Muslim population, with Australia and New Zealand among the nations expected to see the biggest rises.

In Australia, the Muslim community will grow from about 399,000 to 714,000 by 2030, an increase of 80 per cent.

In that time the non-Muslim population will increase by about 18 per cent.

This trend is even more dramatic in New Zealand, where there will be a 150 per cent rise in residents who adhere to Islam. _TheAustralian
Australia and New Zealand are nations with relatively low populations. Both nations are beginning to see adverse affects from the growing numbers of newcomers bringing cultures which can clash badly with the majority -- sometimes violently. Schools, city streets, and prisons from Europe to Canada to Oceania will feel the growing swell of hostility and violence.
... in 2030 Britain will have a Muslim population of 5.5 million people, roughly 8.2 per cent of the total population.

That’s hardly Eurabia, I hear some saying. But that figure will not be spread evenly across the UK. By that stage Oldham, Bradford, Blackburn and Burnley, and possibly Birmingham, may well be Muslim-majority towns. What will race relations be like in those places, I wonder? _Telegraph
As Muslim populations concentrate in particular towns, the ability of individual Muslims within these zones of control to assimilate to the host country will be lost. Instead, growing ghettos of tribal and religious intolerance will be imported from the old countries, and there will be no safety for anyone who thinks or acts outside the narrow rules of the religious tribe.

Think in terms of multiple "no-go zones" run by local Taliban, Hamas, or Hizbollah equivalent gangs. Think of Beirut, Gaza, Baghdad, and the other perpetual hot spots of violence fueled by the endemic violence and intolerance of Islamic culture.
As poor migrants start families in Spain and Italy, numbers there will rocket; in France and Germany, where some Muslims are middle-class, rises will be more modest—though from a higher base. Russia’s Muslims will increase to 14.4% or 18.6m, up from 11.7% now (partly because non-Muslims are declining). The report takes a cautious baseline of 2.6m American Muslims in 2010, but predicts the number will surge by 2030 to 6.2m, or 1.7% of the population—about the same size as Jews or Episcopalians. In Canada the Muslim share will surge from 2.8% to 6.6%.

How will liberal democracies accommodate such variety? The clarity of a written constitution may give America an advantage over many European countries, where unwritten custom has more sway. Jonathan Laurence, an Islam-watcher and professor at Boston College, thinks Europe could rise to the challenge, but failure is also easy to imagine. _Economist
It is best not to think of Europe as a monolithic entity in this case. Clearly, some nations will fall to the human tide of tribalist primitivism, and some nations will assert their right of self-determination. It will depend upon the toughness of the indigenous Europeans within each country.

Some cities in France, Sweden, and the Netherlands are as good as overrun. As noted earlier, Muslims do not need to be in the majority to dominate over more passive, less assertive Europeans. They merely need to be positioned to intimidate a weak government -- first in cities and provinces, then national capitals, then the nation at large.

The borders of Islam are bloody around the world, from Africa to Asia and increasingly inside Europe itself. The hostile and intolerant folkways of Islam are entirely portable, capable of establishing themselves inside entirely foreign cultures -- creating completely new bloody borders at every turn.

If Pakistanis, Egyptians, Yemenis, Iraqis, etc. cannot maintain order within their own boundaries, how can one expect much weaker and more tolerant European governments to deal with these primitive violent tribal cultures?

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Blogger PRCalDude said...

My guess is that we're going to see a new barbarian era like the end of Rome or the last years of Charlemagne's life when the Vikings started raiding. Resources will be devoted to security.

Islam doesn't seem to be an economically viable politics/religion and the only way it can make money is by exploiting the kuffar or some natural resource. I guess the question will be, "How submissive will the non-Muslims be?"

Monday, 31 January, 2011  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Islam is a growing force culturally, but it can't produce anything economically - for a host of reasons.

Muslims in Europe live off of welfare. Muslims in the middle East live off of oil. The only moderately wealthy muslum country is Malaysia, and that country's business community (and some of its government now) is run by the Chinese.

So it seems the battle lines are drawn - the weapon the Europeans have is the power of money. Turn off the welfare payments - and a full scale war starts. Who will blink first?

Monday, 31 January, 2011  
Blogger CarlBrannen said...

I had no idea that the percentages in Europe were so small. By the time they get to 50% population they're going to have been in Europe so long that they will be entirely acculturated.

While talking with my mom yesterday, we agreed on a similar effect in the US. Forty years ago, you could figure out someone's ethnicity by listening to them on the radio. Now it's much harder. TV has ironed out the differences.

For that matter, if you go back 100 years most of the European immigrant types were not considered respectable in the US. Uneducated with bizarre religious beliefs (Catholic), they were thought to herald the destruction of the country's values.

Monday, 31 January, 2011  
Blogger al fin said...

That is wishful thinking, Carl. There is nothing magical about 50% in terms of critical influence. In US demographics, for example, when the percentage of African Americans gets somewhere close to 20% or above, crime rates tend to skyrocket.

For Islam in Europe, that critical percentage is apt to be much lower, since cultures are so different, and there is also an all-out global jihad going on -- according to quite a few radical clerics headquartered from London to Oslo to Stockholm to Brussels to Marseilles to Cairo to Tehran to Mecca and so forth.

Not to mention the vast difference that parliamentary systems make in terms of influential minority parties.

If Muslims are only 20% of the population -- but most of the youngsters in schools and on the sgtreets -- anyone should know that big changes are on the way.

Assimilation ain't what it used to be back in the old days of American opportunity.

Monday, 31 January, 2011  
Blogger gtg723y said...

Or the government couls enact a tax shelter for IQ women that choose to have children..... Sorry, sorry, I drifted off again. I recognize that the feminist movement is the beginning of the end, how do we undo it?

Wednesday, 02 February, 2011  
Blogger painlord2k@gmail.com said...

Intermarriage will slow down the growth of these groups, because not of all of them will be able to keep all of their women (and men) inside the community. When 33% of the group elements intermarry with the host, the group will not be able to grow. Many of the "muslims" have already changed their religion, but avoid to tell it, ofr the sake of the family at home. As the next generations will grow they will lose their link with their ancestral land and religion and will integrate in their new country.

As stated, a large part of them is welfare dependant and as welfare is reduced, they will increasingly will be unable to have enough money to be able to feed themselves AND reproduce. The fertility will converge to the fertility of the host. Probably it will fall under it.

High IQ/quality women will look for higher quality men; these will be found in the host population more than in the guest groups. So, the host will take away the best genetic material from the guest.

In case a war start out between the Muslims and the hosts, the party with the most money, resources, technology, will have the upper hand in the long run.

With "easy" oil running low and new producers of oil, new producers of energy, the M.E. will lose its surplus money and they will lose their ability to fund proselitism and terrorism. They risk to be overrun by africans immigrants preferring to stay in North Africa as their fertility (in North Africa) are near replacement and sometimes lower.
The population growth in the M.E. have forced them to spend so much money in food subsides to keep the population from becoming hungry and angry. And the money is running out.

Their window of opportunity id closing fast, as the window of opportunity of the Soviets closed.

The rising Asia is their bigger danger. Chinese want eat will and have the money to continue to eat. Arabs and Muslims have it not.

Tuesday, 08 February, 2011  

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