06 May 2010

China Crash Imminent; All Currencies Doomed but Gold

Here is a Marc Faber discussion with Bloomberg on the European debt crisis, the China bubble, and the state of commodities and currencies of the world. H/T SeekingAlpha
As regular readers of Al Fin know, this blog considers much of China's recent economic growth to be largely smoke and mirrors, and sleight of hand -- on top of its bubble-like nature. China did not take the opportunity to reform its corrupt system of banking and state-owned enterprises when it had the chance. Instead China went on a building and buying spree in an attempt to prop up the economic numbers, and to prevent popular unrest from the massive unemployment that would logically be taking place in China at this time otherwise.

But without overseas buyers and investors, the Chinese economy will face a significant adjustment, as values are more carefully scrutinised. Europe is in no condition to resume its former buying spree, and the US is getting progressively bogged down in a quasi-permanent Obama - Pelosi quagmire.

As the Dow Jones IA swooped below 10,000 at one point today, the divergent movement of oil vs. gold was quite striking. Gold moved sharply upward, while oil moved swiftly downward. Consider it a preview of coming attractions, perhaps.


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Blogger gtg723y said...

One must consider that gold and now silver may be a new bubble as people get frightened and attempt to put their money somewhere; which only further illustrates the house of cards that is the international economy.

Tuesday, 11 May, 2010  
Blogger al fin said...


We saw hedge funds and pension funds in 2008 trying to use oil as a safe haven -- despite having been warned by Al Fin not to do it! It didn't work out well for them.

Gold is a little different. There is a little bit of "gold fever" in everyone, I suspect.

Never underestimate the potential for the intentional dilution of a currency's value by political leaders.

Tuesday, 11 May, 2010  

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