06 February 2009

When Will the Muslim "Youth Bulge" Pass So The World Will Be More Peaceful?

As Spengler points out at ATimes, Muslims are not contributing very much to the modern world except religious violence and intolerance. This violence grows naturally out of the "youth bulge," the demographic spike of sexually repressed young people living in an extreme shame vs. honour culture, which can be best tracked by the "median age" statistic. Young males of limited intelligence are particularly prone to violence, and as you can see from the above graph, Islamic countries are currently swimming in young males (and females), with an average IQ of 85.
Successful cultures produce people whose contributions resonate through the world - scientists, poets, musicians, entrepreneurs, or philosophers. Just one great individual can transform a nation, by setting an example for ambitious youth. Thanks to the composer Jan Sibelius, Finland with just 5 million people became a force in the world of classical music. But woe unto cultures whence comes no contribution to the rest of humanity. Where are the Muslim scientists, novelists, entrepreneurs, athletes and musicians?

...Most Muslims want to better their lives, as Obama said, but their lives are getting worse rather than better, and nothing they know can make things better. In theory, there might be a future state of the world in which the Islamic world could live in peace and prosperity, but today's Muslims cannot get there from here. _ATimes
It is interesting to compare median age with total fertility rate. If the country's vital statistics are reliable, then the median age statistic should be fairly reliable. The total fertility rate, on the other hand, is an estimate of expected fertility which is subject to a bit of manipulation and guesswork. What does one make of Iran, for example, with a relatively low median age (25.8) AND a relatively low TFR (2.1) for the third world? It is one thing for a country such as Japan with a median age of 44 and a fertility rate of 1.28 to be declared "demographically decreasing." A significant number of women aged 44 are already infertile. I consider the same declaration to be extremely premature for Iran or any other Muslim country. Japan is approaching the "point of no return", after which it will be extremely difficult to avoid a population implosion (without massive immigration), regardless of the wishes of the government or the people. Iran's fertility, on the other hand, could change at the drop of a mullah (or the entire gang of mad mullahs).

The chart from the Spengler article is attributed to UN projections. Unfortunately, if one is familiar with other UN projections, eg the IPCC climate projections, it is extremely difficult to put much reliance upon UN numbers.

Too many people make the assumption that the fertility curves (and affluent modernity) of the third world will magically begin to track the affluence and demographic implosion of the western world. There is very little reason to believe such a thing, except the failure to think outside of one's own culture. In many cultures, a new affluence is a good excuse to grow large families.

In the west, several concomitant trends came together in the 1960s to trigger the subsequent decline in births. The rise of widespread affluence, the abandonment of religion, the technology of contraception, the legalisation of widespread abortion, the explosion of females in higher education and the professions, the ascendancy of radical feminism and with its angry disapproval of stay-at-home moms, the widespread postponing of marriage, a legal "war against fathers" that made men second-class citizens in the divorce court which discouraged men from marrying at all, and a culture of psychological neotenisation creating an abundance of "never-grow-up" Peter Pans and Cinderellas. In what cultures of the world is the same confluence of factors likely to occur as quickly as in the west and Japan?

Muslim countries -- whether rich or poor -- are generally religious and conservative. The method of child-raising creates insular minds, and cultures that look inward in a monotonous manner. Creativity is almost non-existent, technology and the sciences are moribund. High IQ youth have to escape to the west for education and escape from the stifling atmosphere back home. Fortunate is that youth who can truly escape physically, mentally, and spiritually. He is the exception. The cruel culture of shame vs. honour instilled in the child's mind too often reveals itself decades later in the grown man.

There is only one way to be sure the Muslim youth bulge violence is well behind us. More on that later.

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Blogger kurt9 said...

Your graph leaves out one data point that should be considered, Pakistan. Unlike the other Muslim countries with large populations, Pakistan's median age is not increasing. It also has 175 million people.

Pakistan will be the largest source of Islamic trouble in the coming decades.

Friday, 06 February, 2009  
Blogger al fin said...

That sounds about right.


Saturday, 07 February, 2009  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're missing Afghanistan as well. The overall population is of course much smaller than in Pakistan, but the tfr is among the highest in the world.

I do think it's reasonable to assume that most developing countries will see reductions in their fertility rates in the coming decades if for no other reason than increased access to contraception. A lot of people don't want 10 kids, but have them because they don't really have a choice (unless you consider abortion in the third world a good choice, which clearly many do not).

How fast and how far fertility declines will depend on what the governments do. I think most governments will want to reign in explosive population growth, if for no other reason than to ensure stability (and their own place at the top).

Monday, 09 February, 2009  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What I think you don't compute in the projection is the economic factor: poor people starve and starving people have a lower number of children.
Without the "white man" that burden himself with the task to feed them, the third worlders will eventually starve.

Iran is going out the bulge very fast. The population, after 30 years of religious dictatorship is devaluing the religion any day more. If they are not able to satisfy the need of home for the youngs, the youngs will not be able to marry and have children.

All the islaic states are in big troubles. Then the demography is spelling doom to them as it spell doom to us. But we can become old and rich, they will become old and poor. Their societies are under the very big threat of destabilization by economic, demographic and social factors.

What is need is a starter. As soon as the oil will be supplante by other energy sources, the revenues needed to keep up the governments will fade, and with them their ability to wage Jihad and Da'wa.

Then, we could compute the fact that they will be able to play with dungerous equipments. Like sex selecting technology. If they will be force to have less children, many will want a male first. So they will unbalance their demography much more.

And then, if mortaly menaced, even the Westerns could put their moral scruples aside and use the technology without restrain in war of extermination. If you dominate the sky, it is simple to put UAV programmed to fire to any and all humans on the enemy airspace, negating any possibility of life.

Monday, 09 February, 2009  

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