07 January 2009

Is Demographics Destiny?

Yes, demographics, that relentless maker and breaker of civilizations. From the fall of the Roman and the Mayan empires to the Black Death to the colonization of the New World and the youth-driven revolutions of the 20th century, demographic trends have played a decisive role in precipitating many of the great invasions, political upheavals, migrations and environmental catastrophes of history. By the 2020s, an ominous new conjuncture of these trends will once again threaten massive disruption. _SacBee
It is difficult to predict anything, but particularly the future. Demographic change is one thing that lends itself to prediction more than many other types of change. I would like to use Israel as an example of the west, and the Kingdom of Hatred -- greater Arabia -- as an example of the demographic threat the west faces.
Demography..... offers the recipe for such a dissolution [of Israel]. The birth rates for Israeli Arabs are among the highest in the world, with 4 or 5 children per family (as opposed to the 2 or 3 children per family among Israeli Jews). _NYT
Within ten years, arabs will be the majority population between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. Within twenty years, arabs will be the majority even within tiny Israel proper. The writing is on the wall for Israel (and Europe). The question is how it will all unfold.
The Greater Middle East [ed: and soon Europe] hangs on a thread: it could either explode into direct warfare between Israel and Iran, or it could evolve for the better after the Teheran regime is undermined by public opinion, triggered at least initially by continued low oil prices......there are cataclysms to come, and the real battle for the soul of the region may be fought in Iran itself. Atlantic _
The western world is imploding. The vacuum created by low birthrates from Russia to Europe to Japan invites immigration of uneducated and essentially untrainable workers from areas of poverty and low IQ.
Meanwhile, with the demand for low-wage labor rising, immigration (assuming no rise over today's rate) will double the percentage of Muslims in France and triple it in Germany. By 2030, Amsterdam, Marseille, Birmingham and Cologne are likely to be majority Muslim.

In Europe, the demographic ebb tide will deepen the crisis of confidence reflected in such best-selling books as "France is Falling," by Nicolas Baverez; "Can Germany Be Saved?" by Hans-Werner Sinn; or "The Last Days of Europe," by Walter Laqueur.

The media in Europe are already rife with dolorous stories about the closing of schools and maternity wards, the abandonment of rural towns and the lawlessness of immigrant youths in large cities. A recent cover of Der Spiegel shows a baby hoisting 16 old Germans on a barbell with the caption: "The Last German — On the Way to an Old People's Republic." In Japan, the government half-seriously projects the date at which there will be only one Japanese citizen left alive. _SacBee
Watch what happens to Israel carefully, because Israel's turn is first, and Israel is the most vigilant and prepared of all western nations. Israel is determined to survive, but will that same determination evolve into a determination to die well instead of badly? The demographics is bad enough, but when such demographics is combined with the apocalyptic fanaticism of the Iranian suicide bomb regime, hope for favourable change is difficult to sustain.

First Israel, then Europe may be next in line. Do not underestimate the huge "moral lift" that the conquest of Israel will give to the worldwide Islamic supremacist tsunami. Who can Europe call on to help? The United Nations? Pardon me while I laugh at my own absurd joke. Perhaps Europe can appeal to multicultural principles, talk some reason face to face with the onslaught of fanatical demography?

Maybe Europe will attempt to bargain, to bribe leaders, to soften the jihadi resolve with the comforts of the affluent west? Yes, that is exactly what Europe has been attempting for decades, and it is not working out very well. A constant influx of fertile first cousin brides from the old country, and a social isolation of new immigrants, creates a psychological and ideological wall of isolation between Europe's past and its future.

Israel is struggling against demographic destiny. Europe lacks the will to struggle. Israel rages against the long night of fanaticism and the death of reason. Europe looks the other way and hopes the end will be quick.

There may be hope of a demographic resurgence in many parts of the world.
Many fast-modernizing countries where fertility has fallen very recently and very steeply will experience an ominous resurgence of youth in the 2020s. It's a law of demography that when a population boom is followed by a bust, it causes a ripple effect, with a gradually fading cycle of echo booms and busts. In the 2010s, a bust generation will be coming of age in much of Latin America, South Asia and the Muslim world. But by the 2020s, an echo boom will follow — dashing economic expectations, swelling the ranks of the unemployed and perhaps fueling political violence, ethnic strife and religious extremism.

These echo booms will be especially large in Pakistan and Iran. In Pakistan, the number of young people in the volatile 15- to 24-year-old age bracket will contract by 3 percent in the 2010s, then leap upward by 20 percent in the 2020s. In Iran, the youth boomerang will be even larger: minus 31 percent in the 2010s and plus 30 percent in the 2020s. These echo booms will be occurring in countries whose social fabric is already strained by rapid development. One teeters on the brink of chaos; the other aspires to regional hegemony. One already has nuclear weapons, and the other seems likely to obtain them. _SacBee
Great. An echo population boomerang in Pakistan and Iran? Just what we needed. More fanatical followers of the jihadi onslaught.

Which of the modern world empires will be positioned to challenge this tsunami of fanaticism and unreason? China is building its energy supplies with a vengeance, in apparent preparation for something of import. India is likewise trying, but it has its own demographic problems within and without its own borders.

The Anglosphere is currently under the sway of a sick and suicidal ideology of energy Luddism, of Dieoff.orgiasm. The Anglosphere is not preparing for the future, but is instead preparing to follow the fate of a sick and dying Europe. Despite a sick leadership, a large number of stubborn and curmudgeonly throwbacks to an earlier time of desperate survival still exist in pockets of the Anglosphere -- even in pockets of Europe. The board is still in play.

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Blogger neil craig said...

If somebody develops some mechanism of stopping, or even reversing, aging the western world would revert to low natural growth. What we do about immigration is a different matter & only Japan seems to have the necessary will, or possibly merely sufficiently surrounded by sea, to keep immigration at effective zero.

I think it quite likely somebody will be able to stop the aging clock, indeed that the only reason it isn't getting as much funding as "HIV-AIDS" research is fear that it can be done.

The social problems will be enormous but what exactly they will be will depend on how expensive the treatment is & whether it reverses aging or merely leaves a large number of physically old people. Since mass production of anyrhing without expensive inputs can be done at a low unit cost I suspect, at least in the longer term, the anti-aging pill will be pretty cheap.

Ending aging wouldn't affect the fast growing countries proportionately so much, because their problem is births not deaths. Nonetheless standing room only in Gaza is not impossible.

Wednesday, 07 January, 2009  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Many M.E. countries have replacement level fertility just now. In facts, their share of immigrants in Europe is falling fast (Turkey, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Iran). Others, with higher fertility rate, are nonetheless seeing falling birthrates. A few are falling so fast that I wonder what's happening. Probably postponements of the first birth and reducing number of children/woman.

Also, immigration will be slowed by the bad economy.

This imply that immigration will continue but a slower pace. So the impact of immigrants in the EU will be smaller than someone thinks.

The real problems are from the immigrant (Muslims) populations already present in Europe and their higher birthrate than the original population. This, also, is a bit exaggerate. Their fertility rate is converging fast with the fertility rate of the original population. The habitat force the demography of all groups.
The groups that have an higher birthrate stay poor and their female look for better partners (wealthier, more civilized) in the following generations.
To add to this, the M.E. migrants are less healthy than the general populations (inbreed and bad habits).

I suppose that, in the 2010-2020 periods, we will see big tensions and clash between the Muslims and the others (original population and other migrants) in Europe.
When the Muslims will show their true colors, the Leftist will reject them (they will not tolerate someone menacing their power) and will show them their true colors (not very tolerant and loving).

If the Muslims are able to take control of a piece of land, they will be cut out from commerce and subject to hostility. Given the climate (cooling probably) their chance to adapt is slim. Given the technological superiority of the original populations the probability they survive is also very slim.

Tuesday, 13 January, 2009  

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