06 May 2008

Atlantic and Pacific Oceans Entering Cool Phase

...the key to long-term prediction is in the workings of the ocean, which has 99.9% of the heat capacity of Earth's fluids. It is the heart of the climate "beast"..._WoodsHole
To understand the climate of Earth, one must look at the oceans, the master of Earth's heat content. The image above illustrates the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in its cooling phase. Not until the past few years have climate scientists possessed the tools--such as the Argos buoy system and advanced satellites like Jason--to begin to understand what the wider ocean is actually doing.
Understanding the ocean's effect on climate took a quantum leap forward in 2003 when the first of 3,000 new automated ocean buoys were deployed, a significant improvement over earlier buoys that took their measurements mostly at the ocean's surface.

The new buoys, known as Argos, drift along the world's oceans at a depth of about 6,000 feet constantly monitoring the temperature, salinity, and speed of ocean currents. Every 10 days or so a bladder inflates, bringing them to the surface as they take their readings at various depths.

Once on the surface, they transmit their readings to satellites that retransmit them to land-based computers.

The Argos buoys have disappointed global warming alarmists in that they have failed to detect any signs of imminent climate change. As Dr. Josh Willis noted in an interview with National Public Radio, "there has been a very slight cooling" over the buoy's five years of observation. __IBD
In fact, warming alarmists have been disappointed in most of the recent scientific findings regarding climate. You might say that the better the observations, the more disappointed warming alarmists become. How much happier the alarmists would be if we could just stick to climate models, which have predictions that stretch out hundreds of years.
The new Jason oceanographic satellite shows that 2007 was a “cool” La Nina year—but Jason also says something more important is at work: The much larger and more persistent Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has turned into its cool phase, telling us to expect moderately lower global temperatures until 2030 or so. __Source
With the PDO turning cool and the AMO turning cool, we begin to worry that cooler weather could adversely affect food crops. And that is precisely what is happening across the Northern Hemisphere. A world food supply that is already stressed by China's growing, voracious appetite for animal meat, is becoming more stressed by cooler weather that is shortening growing seasons.

We are also facing an uncertain solarcycle24, which may represent one more additional cooling factor facing Earth's climate.
If the Earth’s climate is dominated by variations in Solar luminosity and magnetic field strength as is believed by some, then that would mean cooling.

And that would be a global disaster as deserts expand, storms increase, glaciers expand and wipe out towns and villages in places like Switzerland and Nepal, a shorter growing season with more variability in precipitation, an increase in the number of droughts and failed harvests leading to mass starvation in certain regions. __SolarScience
You should understand that a cold Earth is a much less tolerant place than a warm Earth. If the sun decides to go quiet and slow, the Earth's hungry will grow much hungrier. And while a warm prosperous Earth may tolerate the superficial vacuity of Al Gore, Arianna Huffington, and the current crop of US presidential candidates, a cold and starving Earth will see them as pampered and arrogant fools.

H/T Tom Nelson, IceCap, and Green Watch
Update: This candid look at climate models from Skeptic Magazine is a good example of the growing phenomenon of reputable scientists finally feeling safe enough to begin speaking out.
H/T Random Nuclear Strikes via Tom Nelson


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Blogger CarlBrannen said...

You might find this article of interest: Peter Harris, An Urgent Signal for the Coming Ice Age.

I'm not in a position to pass judgement on this, but I do recall the fears of a new ice age back when I was young. I would think we could cure it by simply putting more soot into the air.

Wednesday, 07 May, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

It is a fascinating line of reasoning. I suspect we will have little more warning of a killer ice age than we will have of a killer asteroid or comet heading our way.

We simply need to become better at dealing with problems. Right now we don't know enough about climate to intervene on a large scale. The only good thing you can say about Al Gore's "solution" is that climatically it is completely ineffective for either good or bad (with the problem that it will be economically devastating).

While our society appears to be running away from competence and rationality, the need for competence and rationality has never been greater.

Wednesday, 07 May, 2008  

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