12 February 2007

Global Warming Gold

Making journalists and the public believe strongly in something that is unlikely, is not difficult. And making money while doing so makes it worth the time and trouble.

“The track record of any kind of long-distance prediction is really bad, but everyone’s still really interested in it. It’s sort of a way of picturing the future. But we can’t make long-term predictions of the economy, and we can’t make long-term predictions of the climate,” Dr. Orrell said in an interview. After all, he said, scientists cannot even write the equation of a cloud, let alone make a workable model of the climate.

Formerly of University College London, Dr. Orrell is best known among scientists for arguing that the failures of weather forecasting are not due to chaotic effects — as in the butterfly that causes the hurricane — but to errors of modelling. He sees the same problems in the predictions of the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which he calls “extremely vague,” and says there is no scientific reason to think the climate is more predictable than the weather.

“Models will cheerfully boil away all the water in the oceans or cover the world in ice, even with pre-industrial levels of Co2,” he writes in Apollo’s Arrow . And so scientists use theoretical concepts like “flux adjustments” to make the models agree with reality. When models about the future climate are in agreement, “it says more about the self-regulating group psychology of the modelling community than it does about global warming and the economy.

Wassily Leontief, Nobel prize winner for modeling, said this about the limits of models. "We move from more or less plausible but really arbitrary assumptions, to elegantly demonstrated but irrelevant conclusions." Exactly. Assume continued warming as in the last three decades, and you get a warming disaster. Assume more episodes of global cooling, and you get a cooling disaster.

...the global warming movement has now become a multi-billion dollar enterprise with thousands of jobs and millions in funding for NGOs and think-tanks, top jobs and prizes for scientists, and huge media coverage for predictions of disaster.

The vested interests in the global warming theory are now as strong, rich and politically influential as the biggest multinationals.

Al Gore is making very good money on this deal. Not a bad scam, if you can pull it off.

Labels: ,

Bookmark and Share


Blogger Fat Knowledge said...


Question for you.

Is the intent of your postings on global warming to try and convince people that are open minded and believe in science that global warming isn't occurring as the IPCC says it is and that the US shouldn't implement things like carbon taxes that would reduce fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions?

Because, if it is, I am your ideal person to try and convince. If you give me good evidence, I will change my mind. But, when I read your postings they do little to change my opinion.

If you would like to know what it would take to change my mind, or why the posts as they are currently written don't move my needle, let me know and I would be happy to share.

If you aren't interested, or if you have some other intent for your posts, I completely understand that. I will just skip the global warming posts and move on to the interesting health, genetics and futurism posts that I enjoy on your blog.

Tuesday, 13 February, 2007  
Blogger al fin said...

mping: Thanks for your comment.

The only intent of my posts on any topic, including climate, is to provoke thought. The links that are provided within the articles and on the sidebar are meant to provide sources for further reading, for the curious.

While I do not try to convince anyone--since my self-esteem does not depend on others having the same opinions as I do--I am always interested in why persons hold certain opinions. I enjoy reading Fatknowledge blog, and cannot help but notice your own posts on climate. I assume that your own motivations for posting what you do are similar to my own.

If a posting can simply make someone curious--even a little bit--who had previously been complacent or indifferent, then I would consider this blog to be accomplishing its task, for them.

I may go a week or more without posting on climate, or I may post several climate posts in a week. My near term intentions for my climate posts, are to spell out some of the significant monetary interests tied into the current unwarranted hyper-focus on anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

I receive emails suggesting that I post more on one topic or another, and less on some topics. I take these opinions under advisement. It is my intent to provide ideas and opinions that are not available on most other blogs, commentaries, and news outlets--if I can.

Wednesday, 14 February, 2007  

Post a Comment

“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts