China: Land of the Insane?

Mental illness has now overtaken heart disease and cancer as the biggest burden on the Chinese health system, according to the World Health Organisation, affecting seven per cent of the population. Telegraph_via_Impactlab

China's national mental health center director suggests that over 100 million mentally ill persons call China their home. Most of these likely suffer from anxiety, depression, phobias, and panic disorder. But China has a sizable population of schizophrenics, and other psychotics. And China is not prepared to deal with the problem.

In a nation of world-class pollution, homelessness, unemployment, and the massive internal displacement of hundreds of millions of people, it should not be a surprise that China's mental health environment is less than optimal. Unfortunately, there is no indication that China's government will ever be up to the task -- so the problem is likely to only grow worse with time.

There are only 4,000 qualified psychiatrists and a further 15,000 doctors working in psychiatric hospitals to serve China's vast population. "There are no psychiatry, psychology or psychotherapy students in medical school. You need to qualify as a doctor first, and then subscribe to a course in mental treatment," she said.

As a result, she said the true number of mentally ill could be far higher. "My own estimate is that one-third of the students I was at university with now have some form of mental illness," she said. _Telegraph

Despite its facade of socioeconomic robustness, China faces many severe internal instabilities. Much of China's society and industry is economically and infrastructurally unsound. And while much of the world now looks to China as a rock of stability in an increasingly untrustworthy Obamaworld, it would be a good idea to look very closely before committing to what could be a Potemkin facade.

In a population as immense as China's, the amount of naturally occurring human misery will be large. Add to that the human misery caused by pollution of land, water and air, and the human misery caused by massive population displacements and social engineering on a huge scale -- and it may be a wonder that any sanity exists within China at all.

Fear, Anxiety, Depression: One Puzzle Piece

Current therapies for depression and anxiety disorders are less than perfect. When the potential for new and effective therapies for mental health disorders appear, it is cause for hope and scrutiny. Acid Sensing Ion Channel protein (ASIC1a) plays a key role in the experiencing of fear, prolonged anxiety, and depression. Researchers in Iowa have studied this protein for over two years, and earlier demonstrated that disrupting ASIC1a blunts the "fear response" of mice. Now, the Iowa researchers have demonstrated an anti-depressant effect in mice by blocking the ASIC1a protein.

The UI research team found that disrupting ASIC1a -- an ion channel protein found in the brain -- produced an antidepressant-like effect in mice. The effect was similar to that produced by currently available antidepressant drugs, but the team also showed that ASIC1a's effect arose through a new and different biological mechanism. _PO

This approach to the study of anxiety and depression promises to bring about entirely new therapies for these disorders. Several years are likely to pass before ASIC1a-based treatments are on the market, but given the growing costs of mood and anxiety disorders to health care systems around the world, useful leads for researchers to follow can only help.

In the meantime, large numbers of pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments for anxiety and depression are available.

Natural Gas Says: Fracc You Peak Oil!

Brian Westenhaus reports some good energy news from the natural gas front. It involves a method of enhancing natural gas wells called "fraccing", or fracturing rock layers to provide better gas access. North America has abundant natural gas resources -- particularly if you include the methane hydrates of the far North.

...oil and gas service businesses have invented a rock fracturing technique for deep below the surface. Called fracing for short, the technique quite simply uses raw power to force water, sand and specialized chemical solvents, binders and lubricants into the wells so they open and fill cracks that can allow the natural gas to flow out.

...[Along] with methane hydrates and new biomass sources, natural gas has a bright future. There is an existing infrastructure for moving gas; a huge installed base of users and it’s the least contentious fossil carbon fuel. Its pretty good stuff, and the cost to use it isn’t threatened by anyone but the U.S. Congress with its Cap and Trade suicide pact.

There are careers here that will last for decades. Of all the fossil carbon sources natural gas is the least risky for U.S. production of fuels. Oil and particularly coal are in danger with grave consequences in store for consumers as the hysteria over global warming from CO2 continues to drive politics, muckraking ands profiteering by its promoters. Even if Congress abandons the common welfare for the perceptions and subversions of special interests, natural gas will be the least affected. _NewEnergyandFuel

Brian Wang also reports some encouraging energy news: a new technique of oil recovery promises 400 billion more barrels of Alberta oil at a cost of $26 per barrel!

ET Energy's Electro Thermal technology could be used to pump out 600 billion barrels of Alberta's oil sands bitumen. That's more than triple the Alberta government's best guess at what's currently recoverable from the oil sands, and enough to satisfy total global demand for twenty years.

Saudi Arabia has 260 billion barrels of oil reserves, so the additional 421 billion barrels would be close to double the oil in Saudi Arabia.
_NextBigFuture

Cross posted to Al Fin Energy

Obama's Disastrous Debut......Worse to Come

Obama's presidency is off to a blundering and inauspicious start, with daily missteps and the continuing failure to fill important administrative positions. Obama is the second-least popular president in 40 years, after just 100 days. Even George Bush was more popular after his first 100 days.

...five presidents rated higher than Mr. Obama after 100 days in office. Ronald Reagan topped the charts in April 1981 with 67 percent approval. Following the Gipper, in order of popularity, were: Jimmy Carter with 63 percent in 1977; George W. Bush with 62 percent in 2001; Richard Nixon with 61 percent in 1969; and George H.W. Bush with 58 percent in 1989. _Source

Even more than his unprecedented multi-trillion dollar a year deficit spending, and a clear intention to double the national debt during his tenure in office, Obama's personal incompetence shows through in every way to anyone capable of looking. The end result of Obama's total cluelessness about the economy will be the subject of anti-Obama curses for generations to come.

Obama wants the US to be like Europe. But which Europe? The Europe in his fantasies, or the rapidly crumbling memorial to socialist stupidity?

Barak the Clown wants to put persons on trial who did their best to protect the US from muslim terrorists. But is D'oh-bama's thinking on this issue clear? And is the view of the Obama zombies toward Iraq based upon the facts on the ground? Obama's NYC Air Force One low altitude fly-by reflects a certain pre-9/11 thinking that borders on the totally oblivious. Whatever are those idiots thinking?!?!?

Obama has been artificially buoyed by a worshipful press, a corrupt and quasi-criminal labour union movement, the wealth-stripping crony cabal of trial lawyers, a thoroughly indoctrinated and partisan academia, and an odd assortment of bailed-out Wall Street investment bankers and billionaire political activists. Oprah helped a lot, too.

But how long can Clown Prince of the world Barry maintain this artful semblance of popular support, when his personal arrogance and disdain for Americans and their country is on full display? We shall see. There is nothing liberal about D'Oh-bama. There is only a clueless leftist arrogance that has already created a fiscal disaster for the country that is almost beyond recovery for many decades.

More Americans are waking up from the zombie dream daily. The longer it takes to awaken, the harsher will be the hangover. Heed the alarm, or suffer the consequences.

Sure, We Still Kiss the Same Way as Always -- But We Use Protection When We Have Sex

With more than 100 people dead in Mexico and almost 30 infected in the US and Canada, the threat of a flu pandemic is gripping the world. Although there had been hopes that the emergency could be contained to the North American continent, Europe saw its first confirmed case on Monday. _Spiegel

A world-wide panic over swine flu is on, and the news media is primed and ready to pump up the panic to the popping point. Suddenly bird flu is out and swine flu is in? If I were a bird I would think about suing CNN for neglect. Nothing excites journalists so much as people dying unexpectedly.

In the real world, people die of flu, cancer, heart disease, pneumonia, diabetes, accidents, violence ... in large numbers every day -- but in "newsworld" all deaths are unexpected. They have to be unexpected to be news. Several "unexpected" deaths attributed to the same cause will make a newsroom positively giddy for days on end. Especially if the media can paint the cause of death as a threat to viewers and readers. That kind of threat has the makings of panic, and panic sells papers.

With the first case of swine flu confirmed in Europe, the world is gripped by fear of a global pandemic. German newspapers on Monday examine the measures taken to contain the disease and some warn against the spread of panic. _Spiegel

Global markets are down on swine flu fears -- at least partially. Of course, in an Obama depression global markets need little reason to be down. Coincidentally, Felipe Solis, an archeologist in Mexico who recently shook Obama's hand, and spent a great deal of time in close proximity to the narcissist in chief, died of swine flu shortly thereafter.

Panic, damn you! We're the government-media complex. We're here to help you. And we can't really help you unless you are thrashing about helplessly, gripped by an uncontrollable panic. So panic, already!

All Zombies Now

MIT researchers have genetically programmed specific types of cells -- fast spiking interneurons -- in mouse brains to respond to pulses of laser light. The researchers can expose these cells to laser pulses at specific frequencies, causing the cells to produce gamma oscillations.

Gamma waves are fast, high-frequency, rhythmic brain responses that have been shown to spike when higher cognitive processes are engaged. Research in adults and animals suggests that lower levels of gamma power might hinder the brain's ability to efficiently package information into coherent images, thoughts and memories. _Source

The MIT researchers can cause the mouse brains to produce gamma waves "on demand", allowing for much easier study of the phenomenon in animal models of perception, memory, and even "conceptualisation."

The trick for inducing gamma waves was the selective activation of the "fast-spiking" interneurons, named for their characteristic pattern of electrical activity. When these cells were driven with high frequency laser pulses, the illuminated region of cortex started to produce gamma oscillations. "We've shown for the first time that it is possible to induce a specific brain state by activating a specific cell type" says co-author Christopher Moore, associate professor of neuroscience and an investigator in the McGovern Institute. In contrast, no gamma oscillations were induced when the fast-spiking interneurons were activated at low frequencies, or when a different class of neurons was activated.

The authors further showed that these brain rhythms regulate the processing of sensory signals. They found that the brain's response to a tactile stimulus was greater or smaller depending on exactly where the stimulus occurred within the oscillation cycle. "It supports the idea that these synchronous oscillations are important for controlling how we perceive stimuli," says Moore. "Gamma rhythms might serve to make a sound louder, or a visual input brighter, all based on how these patterns regulate brain circuits." _MIT

This merging of expertise from molecular genetics and neuroscience, permitted the production of specially designed mice whose brain activity could be controlled by laser -- to a certain extent -- for study of gamma waves.

Before long, it should be possible to genetically program the brains of humans to respond to certain environmental cues -- light, ultrasound, microwave etc. -- to control behaviours in far more sophisticated ways. The ability to influence gamma waves alone should be sufficient to influence normal perception, conceptualisation, and coherent thought. In other words, persons whose brains were programmed to respond to pulsed energy could be made to appear schizophrenic, or could have their short-term memories blocked at specific times. And a lot more besides.

If you want to be able to force persons to think specific thoughts, or believe particular assertions, you would need to use a sophisticated form of conditioning from behavioural psychology. In fact, these newer tools of "brain control" might very well bring about a startling renaissance in behavioural studies in certain research labs that accept government funding.

The combination of bio-nanotechnology, molecular genetics, stem cell technology, neuroscience, and some even more surprising technologies in cell and molecular biology, are opening the doors of perception and deception wider than ever. Can these technologies be used to accomplish good things? Of course they can and of course they will. But there is always a dark side to every discovery.

But think of this timely application: Who would need to torture someone to divulge information, when they could re-program the person's motivational structure -- leaving his memories intact for voluntary extraction.

Of course, if you were the sort of politician who looks at masses of people, and sees only zombies to be recruited into your personality cult and private army of adulation, this technology might have application to your needs as well.

All zombies now.

More information on MIT study, along with another study from Stanford with parallel findings

Update on the Swiss Blue Brain project (via TechNutNews)

A Lot More Pirates Where Those Came From

Even if all captured pirates were hung from the yardarms, how long would it take to end the problem of piracy on the high seas? Forever! Since more potential pirates are being made every day than would conceivably be hung every year, the piracy problem would never be solved by summary executions.Image SourceSomalia is the source of most of the Indian Ocean pirates who prey on freighters, tankers, cruise ships, and even fishing boats. Some companies have gotten smart and hired well-trained security crews.

Six men in a small, white Zodiac-type boat approached the Msc Melody at about 1730 GMT Saturday and opened fire with automatic weapons, Msc Cruises director Domenico Pellegrino said. They retreated after the security officers returned fire and sprayed them with water hoses. The ship continued its journey with its windows darkened.

"It felt like we were in war," the ships commander, Ciro Pinto, told Italian state radio.

None of the roughly 1,000 passengers and 500 crew members was hurt, Pellegrino said. The passengers were asked to return to their cabins and the external lights on board turned off.

Pellegrino said all Msc cruise ships around the world are staffed with Israeli security agents because they are the best trained.

The attack occurred about 200 miles (325 kilometers) north of the Seychelles, and about 500 miles (800 kilometers) east of Somalia, according to the anti-piracy flotilla headquarters of the Maritime Security Center Horn of Africa. _Yahoo

Image SourceA brief look at Yemen's population pyramid suggests that Yemen may well be the next big source of Indian Ocean pirates. In fact, pirates are already using islands just off the coast of Yemen as forward bases.

When I traveled the Saudi-Yemen border some years back, it was crowded with pickup trucks filled with armed young men, loyal to this sheikh or that, while the presence of the Yemeni government was negligible. Mud-brick battlements hid the encampments of these rebellious sheikhs, some with their own artillery. Estimates of the number of firearms in Yemen vary, but any Yemeni who wants a weapon can get one easily. Meanwhile, groundwater supplies will last no more than a generation or two.

I’ll never forget what a U.S. military expert told me in the capital, Sanaa: “Terrorism is an entrepreneurial activity, and in Yemen you’ve got over 20 million aggressive, commercial-minded, and well-armed people, all extremely hard-working compared with the Saudis next door. It’s the future, and it terrifies the hell out of the government in Riyadh.” The future of teeming, tribal Yemen will go a long way to determining the future of Saudi Arabia. And geography, not ideas, has everything to do with it. _RobertKaplan_via_ComingAnarchy

The "zones of lawlessness" are growing ever wider -- propelled by the demographic explosion of the third world, and abetted by the demographic implosion of the first world. Now that Barak Obama is the leader of the western world, the defenses are down and the gates are thrown wide open. The machinery of freedom and the marketplace begins to rust of neglect. Third world entropy swarms the half-built barricades.

How Much Farther Down Can the Sun Slide?

Go to Watts Up With That for more background information. Compare the plot for the current minimum with the plot for the previous solar minimum in 1996. Why are the two plots so different? No one knows.

Modern satellites and scientific instruments for studying the sun have only been around for a short time, historically. It is still too early to say how the developing minimum ranks alongside historical minimums such as the Dalton or the Maunder.

The sun is too far away to tax, so most governments pay little attention to its comings and goings, its lapses and its waxes. But there is a lot of money to be made from faux climate catastrophes and from carbon hysteria. Cap and trade, carbon tax, fines and penalties out the gazoo. Create a boogeyman out of plant food to scare the kids and zombies. Anything to sell papers. Anything to get elected. Anything to shift the center of power from the marketplace to the reich.

Update 27 April 2009: More on sun - climate link

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/the-missing-sunspots-is-this-the-big-chill-1674630.html

http://climateresearchnews.com/2009/04/quiet-sun-who-saw-it-coming/

The Last Bubble to Pop? The Education Bubble

From the video above:

From the 1950s until 1991, the University of Pennsylvania, Harvard, MIT, Princeton, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, and Yale formed the Overlap Group, through which they shared data on applicants. This allowed them to artificially inflate tuition and eliminate merit-based financial aid by circumventing competition. A Dartmouth official said that had it not followed the Overlap Group, "we would effectively be out of the Ivy League, and this would have a serious impact on our applicant pool."

Thus, tuition rises.
Forty-seven universities have built billion-dollar endowments, while doubling their average tuition from 1995 to 2005. The average US public college tuition rose 35% between 2001 and 2006, while private college tuition rose 11%. Instruction has only received 21% of inflation-adjusted college spending per student since 1976. Overall, only Switzerland spends more per student from elementary school through college than the US. Although 97% of Americans with children expect their eldest to attend college, 26% have less than $5000 saved for this. Hence, half of college graduates spend 8% of their income on student loans. Those with graduate degrees spend 13.5%. To make matters worse, college graduates' real incomes fell 5.2% from 2000 to 2004, as high school graduates' incomes rose 1.6%. Now, only 44% of parents think the value of a college education is worth the cost. As a matter of fact, a 1999 study found no income difference between graduates of selective universities and those who won acceptance to comparable schools but chose less-selective ones.

In 1973, the US Supreme Court ruled in Griggs versus Duke Power Co. to forbid general intelligence tests in employment because they create racial "disparate impact." So, educational credentials have served as a mark of intellectual competence. However, employers have reason to doubt this conceit.

SAT scores peaked in 1964. Twenty-two percent of college freshmen need high school-level math. From 1995 to 2005, reading proficiency among Americans with graduate degrees declined from 51% to 41%. A 2006 study found that 20% of students pursuing 4-year degrees had only basic quantitative skills, and half could not perform complex literacy tasks. In the early 1960s, the average college student completed 60 hours of schoolwork per week. In 2003, only 33% of freshman reported 6 or more hours per week. Those doing less than one hour per week doubled over 16 years to 16%. Meanwhile, 47% receive A average grades, compared to 18% in 1968.

Such dubious currency at such a steep cost has yet to impact the plentiful supply. In 1950, 6% of Americans had a college degree. In 2005, 28% had one. The masters degree is the fastest growing, with a 19% increase from 1996 to 2002.

In the words of Dr. Mark Edmundson of the University of Virginia, "It is probably time now to offer a spate of inspiring solutions. . . . Perhaps it would be a good idea to try firing the counselors and sending half the deans back into their classrooms, dismantling the football team and making the stadium into a playground for local kids, emptying the fraternities, and boarding up the student-activities office. Such measures would convey the message that American colleges are not the northern outposts of Club Med."

Al Fin comments:

But American colleges are indeed the temperate clime outposts of Club Med. More famous for binge parties, hooking up, athletic stars who are flunking with criminal records, grade inflation, and a punitive indoctrination into inquisitorial pre-scientific political correctness.

If you are a parent, spending hard earned, hard saved income to send your child to one of these play pens for psychological neotenates, you may wish to consider the mismatch between your good intentions and your actions.

30 Top Resources for Non-Pharmacological Therapies for Depression

Guest post by Kat Sanders

Depression is not something that we can take lightly; it may start out as a mild form of sadness, but if left untreated or unmanaged, it could turn into a full blown mental disorder that causes more complications than you can handle. Rather than resort to drugs to treat depression (they come with a host of side effects and are sometimes addictive), you could try these top resources for non-pharmacological therapies for depression. A word of warning - these are not meant as professional advice, so consult your doctor before you stop your medication or try something new.

There are various alternative methods of treating depression, and some of them are:

Psychotherapy: this is a method that uses cognitive behavior therapy and other coping strategies to help deal with their problem. A few sites that have good information on psychotherapy are:

• About.Com s Depression and Psychotherapy page


• Psych Central s resources on psychotherapy


• Psychotherapy Resources offers depression help in North Carolina and in general


• Patient.Co.UK has information on psychotherapy and related resources in the United Kingdom


• Psychotherapy.Net links to articles and interviews with qualified therapists who deal with depression on a daily basis.


• Anxiety Insights offers information and news on psychotherapy, depression and related topics.

Light Therapy: is used to help people who suffer from depression because of living in houses where there’s not enough natural light and in places where sunlight is missing for the major part of the year. It involves being bathed in artificial light for at least half an hour each day. Below are a few sites that offer comprehensive information and resources about this therapeutic method.

• Light Therapy Australia contains access to resources on light therapy down under and in general.



• Light Therapy Products lists products that help you cope with and prevent depression that’s induced by a lack of natural light


• Holistic Online s light therapy page contains information on this disorder


• Pscyeducation.Org tells you more about light therapy


• Mayo Clinic’s pages on light therapy and seasonal affective disorder (SAD) offer you more information on these conditions



• Full Spectrum Solutions offers links to products that help prevent SAD and suggestions and ideas for full spectrum lighting

Aerobic Exercise: Cardio workouts that get your heart beating have been proven to be mood enhancers and are thus a great cure for depression. Regular exercise releases endorphins and other feel good chemicals that keep you in good spirits the natural and healthy way. Some sites that offer quality resources on exercising and beating depression are:

• Mental Health UK lets you access resources on health and exercising


• Hub Pages tells you how exercise keeps depression away


• Buzzle.Com features an article on depression, exercise and stress


• Natural Cures for Depression shows you how to beat depression using exercise



• Articles Base has various articles on exercise and depression


• The Uplift Program offers products to help you chase away the blues by exercising

Supplements: From time immemorial, people have been using herbs and other natural substances to treat depression and other mental disorders. A few sites that offer information on supplemental treatment for depression are:

• Helium.Com tells you what you need to know before you use herbal supplements to treat depression


• I Love India offers a list of herbs that help in treating depression


• Native Remedies tell you how various herbs work in helping you cope with depression



• Buzzle.Com provides two great articles on how to treat depression with herbs and why you can depend on them to beat depression away


• Treat Depression Naturally offers you tips on the herbs that work in treating depression


• EHow.Com offers advice on using herbs to help with depression

Foods: Some foods are known to be great mood enhancers because of the chemicals they contain, like chocolate. If you want more information on foods that boost mood and help people who are depressed, check out the below list:

• Natural News offers a list of food groups that help beat depression



• Search Warp tells you why certain foods help enhance your mood and chase away depression


• Ezine Articles offers information about foods that are supposed to keep you upbeat


• Jared Story tells you why food therapy is good for treating depression


• Ayush Veda also tells you why you must eat certain foods to keep your spirits up



• Web MD offers a list of foods that help beat winter depression

By-line:

This article is written by Kat Sanders, who regularly blogs on the topic of MRI technologist schools at her blog MRI Tech's Health Blog. She welcomes your comments and questions at her email address: katsanders25@gmail.com.

High Above the Bloody Streets Below

Welcome to the future, where city streets are war zones between drug gangs and sectarian militias. A world whose cities are like Beirut of the 1980s, where the sounds of firefights, car bombs, and bloody martyrdom greet one's ears more commonly than sounds of birds singing or children playing.Financially and morally depleted by the Obama administration of the early 2000s, the United States had lost its ability to keep trade routes safe, or to ride herd on trans-national criminal organisations and religious terrorist groups. At street level, it has become a free-for-all, worldwide. People of means began looking for higher ground.

The world's elites decided to create cities in the sky, in an attempt to escape the cheapness of human life on the streets below. By paying "protection fees" to street-level gangs and militias, the sky-cities' street level foundations and ground access were protected, for the most part. The last sky city to be brought down by the gangs was in Singapore of 2049. Subsequent brutal reprisals against the streets of Singapore by the triad owners of the felled Sky City left most of the island freehold uninhabitable to this day.

The rise of China as world hegemon in the early 2020s paved the way for expansion of third world corruption to Europe, North America, and Oceania -- regions formerly supportive of property rights and rule of law. Finally, as China itself fragmented into warring factions in the late 2020s, the entire world became a place without law. The teeming masses of the third world discovered that the developed world lacked the will to defend its borders. Soon there was no distinction between third world and first world.

Crime lords and militia leaders have no use for space launches, so every year another irreplaceable satellite falls flaming back to Earth. During the 2030s, nuclear arsenals finally fell into the hands of the gangs, and a few short nuclear wars quickly thinned the ranks of would-be nuclear terrorists and warriors. Several warheads turned out to be duds, and a few thousand self-styled nuclear submariners took residence in Davy Jones' locker. They lacked the competence to safely pilot the aging sea monsters -- particularly the Russian death traps.

As the skies of the world once again grow dingy with coal and wood smoke, all pretense of protecting the water and air of the planet are abandoned. Any species that cannot fend for themselves will suffer the fate of the dodo. Rain forests are slashed and burned, and huge pit mines gouge the surface of every continent and large island. This is the rapidly poisoning world that the many leftist environmental movements of the late 20th and early 21st centuries made possible, through their quasi-terrorist tactics against the world of law -- a world that was quickly shrinking under their noses. It took only an Obama presidency and the lack of any credible opposition for the "Greens" to finish off human economic freedoms and any chance for a clean prosperity that might carry men to the stars.

And so the wealthy few -- many of them crime lords themselves -- huddle in the uncertain safety of the sky cities. Listening to the bombs and gunfire far below. Forgetting how close the world had come to climbing out of the primitivity of lower human nature -- but now mired in the stinking, choking future of perpetual sectarian and criminal warfare.

H/T Inhabitat and Time

The Unbearable Irrelevance of University

Last fall, David Wiley stood in front of a room full of professors and university administrators and delivered a prediction that made them squirm: "Your institutions will be irrelevant by 2020." DN

Universities cannot help themselves. They grow more irrelevant with each passing day, and soon everyone will understand the pointlessness of attending university for any reason except for professional (medical, dental etc), engineering, or scientific training.

Higher education doesn't reflect the life that students are living, he says. In that life, information is available on demand, files are shared, and the world is mobile and connected. Today's colleges, on the other hand, are typically "tethered, isolated, generic, and closed," he says....

....Wiley is an amiable firebrand who helped launch the nation's "open content" movement a decade ago while he was getting his Ph.D. at BYU. Like the "open source" software movement that preceded it, open content makes it easy for authors, teachers and others to sign licensing agreements to freely share their copyrighted materials.

At its core, the open education movement and the larger open content, copyleft movement has "a fundamental belief that knowledge is a public good and should be fully shared," explains Catherine Casserly, senior partner with the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching. Wiley, she says, is viewed in the open education realm as an imaginative innovator who is always thinking of new applications for disseminating knowledge to the many instead of keeping it "locked up" for the benefit of the few......

......Wiley sees a future where textbooks could always be downloaded for free, easily edited to meet the needs of the teacher and students. The average college textbook today costs between $100 and $150, he notes, so there's a kind of "arms race" constantly going on in which students figure out how to share textbooks or buy used ones, and publishers try to make the books obsolete every 18 months.

Wiley helped start Flat World Knowledge, which creates peer-reviewed textbooks that can be downloaded for free, or bought as paperbacks for $30. He also is the founder of the Utah Open High School, which debuts next fall. It, too, will use open content materials, and will provide an online education for 125 students. _DN_via_Technovelgy

So far, Flat World Knowledge has a small selection of textbooks. Textbook Revolution has a wider selection of categories and particulars. But give them time.

Free online lectures are proliferating on YouTube, Google Video, and several other online venues. See Lecture Fox, or this list for more. But these open courseware resources are just the beginning. Free textbooks and lectures can only get you so far. You also need some form of certification of knowledge or proficiency.

In addition, certain university courses require intensive laboratory training, often with supervision. Many of the sciences, professions, and engineering / technology disciplines cannot be mastered without well-supervised hands-on training. For that type of learning to go "open source", a way of simulating expensive lab experiential training online -- or via sophisticated interactive software -- will be needed.

Open source universities may need to borrow a trick from homeschooling, and create an "open source cooperative" that provides sophisticated simulation equipment too expensive for individual students to afford. In fact, combining "de-centralised simulation" facilities with independent testing and certification facilities makes a great deal of sense, in terms of allowing small communities to provide wide-spectrum highly sophisticated educational experiences to their citizens.

Realistically, a sophisticated system of education capable of training competent lifelong learners for the future, will not be free. But it's clear that modern universities have priced themselves out of the future for most of tomorrow's learners. And too, becoming fascist indoctrination centers for zomboid political correctness hasn't helped the case of universities.

Once people really start catching on, the collapse of the university system should happen quickly. When that happens, more useful alternatives will need to be in place. Who will be the Bill Gates of the next phase of education?

Sun to Earth: Look, Still No Spots!

Compared to all the spots in 2001 (on the left), our 2009 sun (on the right) looks quite nude. Is it just a coincidence that the Earth is experiencing global cooling at this time? Despite all the dire predictions of dying reefs, melting icecaps, and worldwide droughts, the reefs and icecaps keep coming back from cyclical downturns. Antarctic sea ice is growing so fast that it threatens to create a cooling feedback effect in the Southern Hemisphere. It is important to understand that Antarctic sea ice has an order of magnitude greater effect on Earth's heat balance than Arctic sea ice.

What does the spotless sun portend for our near-future climate?

.....This was a period in the Little Ice Age when sunspots became very rare, as noted by observers of the era. During one 30-year period within the Maunder Minimum, astronomers recorded only about 50 sunspots. Although a simplistic correlation is rightly contested, the Maunder Minimum thus appears to coincide with the middle - and the severest part - of the Little Ice Age.

Moreover, a second time a cycle was delayed like our current ‘Solar Cycle 24’ occurred during the so-called Dalton Minimum, an especially cold period that lasted several decades from 1790. Northern winters became ferocious: in particular, the rout of Napoleon’s Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots.

Thus, what currently is happening to the average temperature of the Earth’s surface? Since at least 2001, it has been falling, and dramatically so during the last two years. _Source

The connection between sunspots and Terran climate is not direct, but is rather mediated by energy fluxes and particle "winds" interacting with the Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, with the likely involvement of extra-galactic cosmic rays to boot. Ocean oscillations are a more proximate manifest determinant of climate control.

H/T Tom Nelson

How Do You Like These "Future-Proof" Jobs?

Popular Mechanics presents the following list of 10 "Future-Proof" jobs. If you are looking for a first, second, or third career, you might consider one of them as a possible way to survive the Obama depression.

1. Undersea Welder

Wet welders work in offshore oil fields as deep as 400 feet, building and repairing undersea infrastructure......Arc welding underwater with electrodes carrying 185 amps might seem unwise, but deep-diving wet welders do it every day. They build and repair pipelines and oil platforms—in January 2009 there were 313 new bids worth $484 million in the western Gulf of Mexico alone. Dusty Harrison, placement director for a Florida school called the Commercial Diving Academy, says, “There’s no telling how much work there is,” thanks to a decade of hurricanes and a boom in oil exploration. During the Gulf ’s hurricane season, some welders work in West Africa and Asia.

How to Do It: Oil companies hire dive outfits with welders certified by the Association of Commercial Diving Educators. Schools such as the Commercial Diving Academy and New Jersey’s Divers Academy International have four- to five-month certification courses. Swimming ability and a high school diploma are prerequisites; scuba diving isn’t.

Earning Potential: Right out of school, you’ll pull in $17 to $20 an hour. “After two and a half or three years, that typically doubles,” Harrison says.

2. Zero-Energy Home Architect

Some houses now being built make as much energy as they consume. They rely on equipment such as solar cells to generate power, while using efficient design to keep consumption down. Michelle Kaufmann, an architect in Oakland, Calif., is bringing the zero-energy idea and other forms of sustainable design to prefab houses such as her mkLotus, a small, one-bedroom home. (Kaufmann worked for architecture legend Frank Gehry before founding her own firm in 2002.) Kermit Baker, an economist for the American Institute of Architects (AIA), says, “Sustainability and architecture are now intertwined.” In a recent AIA survey, architects reported that 47 percent of their clients in 2008 used green building elements. Despite the housing slump, Kaufmann says her 15-person staff is swamped: “We have more projects than ever before.”

How to Do It: Earn a master’s from one of the 61 U.S. architecture programs that offer classes with a green bent. (Yale has a joint degree in architecture and environmental management.)

Earning Potential: Nationally, staff architects earn about $45,000 to $100,000. Architects who own their firms can make much more.

3. Combined Heat and Power Mechanic
Jim Bondi is an old-school electrician who embraces new-school energy production. After eight years working on projects that included solar installations, he joined Pennsylvania-based E-Finity, designing combined heat and power (CHP) plants. A CHP unit saves energy by burning fuel to produce electricity and using the excess heat for climate control and producing hot water. “With the nation’s rising energy demand and the increase in environmental stewardship, CHP is an economic and environmental no-brainer,” Bondi says. The Department of Energy hopes the industry will grow enough to add a million workers by 2030.

How to Do It: CHP suppliers provide training. Electricians and mechanics with experience on jet and helicopter engines, which are similar to CHP turbines, find their skills are a natural fit.

Earning Potential: Salaries are $30,000 out of the gate; they top out at $75,000.

4. Energy Engineer
When the Coronado naval base in San Diego wanted to shrink its energy consumption, it turned to the consulting firm Tetra Tech, whose energy-efficiency staff has grown sixtyfold in the past decade. “The naval base is like a small city, with office buildings, a supermarket, bowling alleys,” says Linda Hunter, a Tetra Tech energy engineer who was brought in to boost efficiency on the base and its two aircraft carriers. Energy engineers may recommend new air-conditioning equipment or solar-powered streetlights, or they may design entire renewable-energy systems, such as harnessing methane from a landfill to generate electricity.

How to Do It: Earn a degree in chemical, mechanical, electrical or civil engineering—or a newer specialty called energy resources engineering. A Certified Energy Manager (CEM) certification is useful; it demands expertise in subjects like indoor air quality codes and standards, thermal energy storage systems and energy economics.

Earning Potential: Salaries start in the $50,000 range; with a master’s, you’ll get bumped up to around $70,000. Managers can pull in more than $100,000.

5. Digital Detective

Red teamers focused on digital security are hired to hack into computer systems to uncover vulnerabilities. The Department of Homeland Security plans to quadruple its cyber-security staff this year. Mark Mateski, a red teamer and the managing editor of Red Team Journal, says, “You’ll find a lot of red teamers working in war gaming and cyber security in the government-contracting world.” Even bigger growth may be coming in the private sector: “If your business’s survival depends on cyber security, you’re going to start looking for unconventional answers,” he says.

How to Do It: Programming skills are a must; a degree in computer science is helpful in landing a job. The Center for Cyber Defenders Program at New Mexico’s Sandia National Laboratories offers specific red-team training.

Earning Potential: $60,000 to start on the government and government-contract side; six-figure salaries are common in the private sector.

6. 3D Sports Tech

Many fans already say they get a better view of sports events watching TV than sitting near the action, but 3D cements the argument. At least, that’s the view of Steve Schklair, CEO of Burbank-based 3ality Digital Systems, a company specializing in 3D technology and production. “If you’ve got a camera down low next to the green and the golfer is putting uphill, you can actually see the roll of the green while he’s putting,” he says. Ray Hannisian, the company’s lead stereographer, uses software running complex sets of algorithms to fine-tune and synchronize the depth readings of as many as 10 cameras during events. The technology raised its profile during this year’s national college football championships, which 3ality shot and broadcast live to 63 movie theaters in January. Such broadcasts will soon be coming to a living room near you: American consumers have already bought 1.4 million 3D-compatible televisions, and every major electronics manufacturer is now producing such sets. Of course, the best-known 3D arena remains moviemaking. More than a dozen 3D movies are scheduled for release in 2009.

How to Do It: You can master 3D still photography on your own using a program like HumanEyes Capture 3D Software. Also, take classes in digital videography (art schools and university film programs offer them), then look for a job as a 2D cameraman. “With digital technology, you can learn a lot about 3D while you’re actually shooting,” Hannisian says.

Earning Potential: Salaries start at $50,000 and can go as high as $150,000 for television work. For the elite earners in 3D movie production, Schklair says, “There is no limit.”

7. Wind Explorer

Siting a wind farm takes engineering chops, anemometers, GPS skills and, sometimes, zinc oxide on your nose.

When civil and environmental engineer Mathias Craig arrived in Nicaragua in 2004, he found a stretch of Caribbean coastline where transportation consisted of horses and boats and there wasn’t a single light bulb. “It was like the Wild West 200 years ago,” he says. As founders of the nonprofit Blue Energy Group, Craig and his brother organized volunteers to build wind turbines to catch the Caribbean trade winds and supply several com-munities with electricity. Hugh Piggott, a Scotland-based wind-energy pioneer, has worked on similar projects in Zimbabwe, Peru and Sri Lanka. “One of the places wind energy is expanding most rapidly is the developing world,” he says. “The number of people in the world who don’t have utility power is actually increasing.” That’s because the population in many regions is growing faster than grid lines and new power plants can be constructed. Craig and his staff of 32 have already installed nine turbines in Nicaragua. They’ve also scouted sites in West Africa, and they’re in talks to expand into Honduras and Guatemala.

How to Do It: Texas Tech University’s Wind Science and Engineering Research Center offers a summer internship for undergrads and has one of the country’s few Ph.D. programs in the field. However, it’s possible to jump in without an advanced degree. Piggott teaches turbine-building seminars worldwide; Blue Energy has an apprenticeship program in Nicaragua.

Earning Potential: Nonprofit firms based in developing countries pay from $1000 to $4000 per month. Annual salaries in the U.S. currently range from $35,000 to $55,000.

8. Fabricator of Carbon-Fiber Spaceships and Planes

“We’re like the shipbuilders of the modern era,” Reuben Garcia says. As head composite fabricator at XCOR, an aerospace company in Mojave, Calif., Garcia is deeply engaged in the race to make ships capable of carrying tourists into space. Garcia and his team take the plans drawn by XCOR’s engineers and make them real, using lightweight carbon composites similar to the materials used everywhere from Formula One race cars to high-end fishing rods. Composite structures are built up layer by layer, and Garcia’s high-tech creations are shaped largely with such low-tech tools as squeegees filled with epoxy resin. XCOR, which plans to conduct test flights to space by 2011, is situated in a tiny town that has become a hotbed for spaceship and small-airplane construction. “You can walk into any of the 20 or so companies here and have a job in an hour,” says Jon Sharp, owner of Nemesis Air Racing, which builds racing planes.

How to Do It: Many companies will train newbies. However, community colleges can offer a head start with introductory courses in composite fabrication.

Earning Potential: Pay starts low but can climb to $20 per hour. Managers who go on to earn engineering degrees can make up to $100,000 a year.

9. Battery Engineer

Will Gardner was a freshly minted college graduate with a degree in mechanical engineering when he was hired by Duracell. “I had no idea what a battery company could want with a mechanical engineer,” Gardner says, but he was drawn to the field, which combines elements of electrical engineering, chemistry, materials science and, yes, mechanical engineering. “You need to know something about each of them in order to succeed,” he says. Today, Gardner leads a team that designs, builds and tests batteries for hybrid electric cars at A123 Systems, a fast-growing firm based in Watertown, Mass. A123’s clients include Chrysler, GM and automotive upstarts Think and Better Place, and the company’s staff has jumped from 150 to 2000 in the past three years. Ann Marie Sastry, who directs the University of Michigan’s master’s program in energy systems engineering, says, “The DNA of the automobile is changing, which means the composition of the workforce has to change.” Sastry also runs her own battery company, called Sakti3. “We’re hiring,” she says. “It’s a great time to be a battery guy.”

How to Do It: A bachelor’s in math, materials science or engineering is essential. Sastry’s program is very highly regarded: “Students are getting jobs even before they finish their studies,” she says.

Earning Potential: To start, $50,000 to $60,000; at the senior level, $95,000.

10. Independent Video-Game Designer

It took Kyle Gabler just four days to come up with the concept for his first video game, and, frankly, it didn’t seem like a blockbuster waiting to happen: The protagonists are gobs of goo. But in the growing world of independent game design, execution is key—and Gabler created a look that has drawn comparisons to filmmaker Tim Burton, supporting a story filled with intrigue and humor. The prototype became an indie hit, and in October 2008 Gabler launched the Nintendo Wii game World of Goo (above). In an era of sequels (a dozen Medal of Honor games, eight iterations of Grand Theft Auto), the industry needs fresh ideas—and supplying them has traditionally been a designer’s main job. But as Simon Carless, publisher of the industry website Gamasutra and a former lead designer, says, “Now designers also need practical skills. You need to be able to make the game.”

How to Do It: More than 200 schools offer game-design degrees, including the Art Institute of Portland, which graduates students with a B.S. in Visual and Game Programming. But consumer tech is so good now that you may be able to go it alone. “You can make stuff in your bedroom that’s as good as what people are making professionally,” Carless says. Art, music and coding skills are all critical. _PopularMechanics

The only problem with some of the green jobs coming into prominence is the fact that for every job created, approximately 2.3 conventional jobs are lost. It is a conundrum for Obama -- or it would be if he ever gave it some thought, understood what the word "conundrum" meant, and had the mental capacity to think beyond simplistic jingoism.

Anyway, there are a few job categories to consider for new job seekers. I am always on the lookout for lists of new things -- including new types of jobs. If you run across one, please let me know.

Why the Future Belongs to the Penguin

Anyone who has read Kurt Vonnegut's novel "Galapagos" will understand that humans have a lot of devolving to do. By the time we devolve to the level of human neo-seals, we should be ready to greet the upwardly evolving penguin on relatively equal terms -- for a short time. But soon afterward, penguins will leave devolving aquatic humans behind as they continue their upward evolution -- with the assistance of bionic penguins and penguin flying robots that will perform tasks that natural penguins find difficult.

You see, the makers of the Terminator franchise have it all wrong. The future does not belong to humanoid robots. Sorry. It's penguins all the way down the line.

H/T Gizmodo

Adopt a Chimpanzee, Send it to the Best Schools, And Discover How Genes Affect IQ

The story of what made us human is probably not going to focus on changes in our protein building blocks but rather on how evolution assembled these blocks in new ways by changing when and where in the body different genes turn on and off. Experimental and computational studies now under way in thousands of labs around the world promise to elucidate what is going on in the 98.5 percent of our genome that does not code for proteins. It is looking less and less like junk every day. _SciAm

The truth is, anyone with the least scientific judgment accepts that the genes affect IQ (and EF, executive function). Different breeding populations of primates have evolved differently -- from the inside out. "As within, so without", as they say. But then, you already knew that.

So we know that humans and chimps are different -- genetically, morphologically, and behaviourally. What is the "difference that makes the difference" between chimps and humans?

The human brain is well known to differ considerably from the chimpanzee brain in terms of size, organization and complexity, among other traits. Yet the developmental and evolutionary mechanisms underlying the characteristics that set the human brain apart are poorly understood. HAR1 had the potential to illuminate this most mysterious aspect of human biology.

..... until humans came along, HAR1 evolved extremely slowly. In chickens and chimps—whose lineages diverged some 300 million years ago—only two of the 118 bases differ, compared with 18 differences between humans and chimps, whose lineages diverged far more recently. The fact that HAR1 was essentially frozen in time through hundreds of millions of years indicates that it does something very important; that it then underwent abrupt revision in humans suggests that this function was significantly modified in our lineage.

.....HAR1 is active in a type of neuron that plays a key role in the pattern and layout of the developing cerebral cortex, the wrinkled outermost brain layer. When things go wrong in these neurons, the result may be a severe, often deadly, congenital disorder known as lissencephaly (“smooth brain”), in which the cortex lacks its characteristic folds and exhibits a markedly reduced surface area. Malfunctions in these same neurons are also linked to the onset of schizophrenia in adulthood. HAR1 is thus active at the right time and place to be instrumental in the formation of a healthy cortex....

Beyond having a remarkable evolutionary history, HAR1 is special because it does not encode a protein. For decades, molecular biology research focused almost exclusively on genes that specify proteins, the basic building blocks of cells. But thanks to the Human Genome Project, which sequenced our own genome, scientists now know that protein-coding genes make up just 1.5 percent of our DNA. The other 98.5 percent—sometimes referred to as junk DNA—contains regulatory sequences that tell other genes when to turn on and off and genes encoding RNA that does not get translated into a protein, as well as a lot of DNA having purposes scientists are only beginning to understand.

.....It might seem surprising that no one paid attention to these amazing 118 bases of the human genome earlier. But in the absence of technology for readily comparing whole genomes, researchers had no way of knowing that HAR1 was more than just another piece of junk DNA.

Language Clues
Whole-genome comparisons in other species have also provided another crucial insight into why humans and chimps can be so different despite being much alike in their genomes. In recent years the genomes of thousands of species (mostly microbes) have been sequenced. It turns out that where DNA substitutions occur in the genome—rather than how many changes arise overall—can matter a great deal. In other words, you do not need to change very much of the genome to make a new species. The way to evolve a human from a chimp-human ancestor is not to speed the ticking of the molecular clock as a whole. Rather the secret is to have rapid change occur in sites where those changes make an important difference in an organism’s functioning.

HAR1 is certainly such a place. So, too, is the FOXP2 gene, which contains another of the fast-changing sequences I identified and is known to be involved in speech. _SciAm

Of course, none of the sub-species of humans -- the semi-isolated breeding populations -- are as different from the other human populations as all chimpanzees are different from all humans. At the same time, no one truly understands human gene expression well enough to say which differences between human populations are potentially important, and which are not. Likewise, a significant amount of interbreeding between formerly isolated breeding populations takes place in modern societies such as those in the US, the UK, Canada, and Australia. These "natural experiments" in inter-mixing between formerly isolated populations should provide an unbiased science with a number of "natural experiments", perhaps revealing a "dose-response" gradient to genetic effects.

The best approach to the science of genetic influences on behaviour and intelligence would be to pursue the topic as seriously as the Manhattan Project was pursued in WWII. The goal is the discovery of methods that allow humans to become more intelligent. It is a far more important goal than life extension. Who wants to live forever in the middle of an Idiocracy? Not I. Of course, once we are more intelligent, life extension becomes a more important goal, and more achievable.

The popular leftist denial of important genetic behavioural and intelligence differences between populations is the equavalent of shooting oneself in the head to relieve a headache. In the name of a faux "equality" that never existed, leftist zomboids in academy, government, and the media prevent the type of understanding that is required to eventually allow anyone who wishes to become more intelligent. A better example of idiocracy is hard to find.

Intelligence and Genes: The Inconvenient Truth

Researchers have found that people with high intelligence scores tend to have certain regions of the cortex that are larger than average. Shaw expects that some of those patterns will turn out to be the result of the environment. But these regions of the cortex tend to be the same size in twins, indicating that genes are responsible for some of the difference as well.

In recent years, scientists have also published a number of studies in which they claim to have found distinctive patterns of brain functioning in people who score high on intelligence tests. Recently Haier and Rex Eugene Jung of the University of New Mexico surveyed 37 studies examining regional brain size or activity to look for an overall pattern to their results. As Plomin would have predicted, Haier and Jung found no one “intelligence spot” in the brain. Instead they identified a number of significant regions scattered around the cortex. Other studies have implicated each of these regions in different kinds of cognition. “It looks like intelligence is built on these fundamental cognitive processes, like attention and memory, and maybe language ability,” Haier says.

Along with describing the gray matter tissue that makes up the cortex, these studies also find the signature of intelligence in the white matter that links distant parts of the cortex to one another. People with high intelligence tend to have tracts of white matter that are more organized than other people. “The white matter is like the wiring,” Haier says. “If you think about it, you know, intelligence really requires processing power and speed; the white matter would give it the speed; the gray matter would give it the processing power.” _Intelligence In Genes SciAm

Despite the growing body of evidence linking genes and intelligence, there will always be cranks and still more cranks who cannot let go of their attachment to blank slate pretensions to knowledge. But evolution and genuine science care nothing for these political objections. If allowed to work, science and the truth will eventually out.

The genes are able to influence a person's intelligence via several distinct means. From the time that African pygmies split genetically from their African neighbors, 50,000 years ago, humans have been splitting genetic branches from the homo sapiens trunk. As distinct breeding populations separated, they adapted to their differing environments through natural selection. Natural selection can make important changes in human populations much more quickly than we previously believed -- sometimes after only hundreds of years.

Different populations of humans can have distinctly different genetic records, which reflect the vastly different experiences that the distinct populations passed through over the tens of thousands of years since they split from the main trunk. Science understands this, although political correctness continues to hysterically deny the obvious -- turning educated persons who might otherwise make reasonable scientists, into blathering cranks.

Russian scientists showed in the 1990s that a strong selection pressure (picking out and breeding only the tamest fox pups in each generation) created what was — in behavior as well as body — essentially a new species in just 30 generations. That would correspond to about 750 years for humans. Humans may never have experienced such a strong selection pressure for such a long period, but they surely experienced many weaker selection pressures that lasted far longer, and for which some heritable personality traits were more adaptive than others. It stands to reason that local populations (not continent-wide "races") adapted to local circumstances by a process known as "co-evolution" in which genes and cultural elements change over time and mutually influence each other. The best documented example of this process is the co-evolution of genetic mutations that maintain the ability to fully digest lactose in adulthood with the cultural innovation of keeping cattle and drinking their milk. This process has happened several times in the last 10,000 years, not to whole "races" but to tribes or larger groups that domesticated cattle.

Recent "sweeps" of the genome across human populations show that hundreds of genes have been changing during the last 5-10 millennia in response to local selection pressures. (See papers by Benjamin Voight, Scott Williamson, and Bruce Lahn). No new mental modules can be created from scratch in a few millennia, but slight tweaks to existing mechanisms can happen quickly, and small genetic changes can have big behavioral effects, as with those Russian foxes. We must therefore begin looking beyond the Pleistocene and turn our attention to the Holocene era as well – the last 10,000 years. This was the period after the spread of agriculture during which the pace of genetic change sped up in response to the enormous increase in the variety of ways that humans earned their living, formed larger coalitions, fought wars, and competed for resources and mates. _Edge.org

Indeed. The last 10,000 years have exerted enormous evolutionary pressure upon the various distinct breeding populations of Earth. Of course, some populations that existed in more remote areas of the world, may have evaded most of these evolutionary stresses -- until now. That, of course, is the rub. That is why leftist cranks must continue to deny what is directly in front of their noses. The inconvenient truth of intelligence and genes.

Sometimes Evolution Can Work Quickly

Psychologists and educational researchers have pegged their [Ashkenazi's] average IQ at 107.5 to 115. That's only modestly higher than the overall European average of 100, but the gap is large enough to produce a huge difference in the proportion of geniuses. When a group's average IQ is 100, the percentage of people above 140 is 0.4%; when the average is 110, the genius rate is 2.3%.

Though Jews make up less than 3% of the U.S. population, they have won more than 25% of the Nobel Prizes awarded to American scientists since 1950, account for 20% of this country's chief executives and make up 22% of Ivy League students, the pair write. _LAT

IQ is important, it is real, and it is largely determined by a person's genes (working together with his environment). It is important to the political left for IQ to be unrelated to a person's genes. Since the political left dominates academia, the media, and most governments of the developed world, the plain truth about genes and IQ is often studiously ignored, papered over, and denied belligerently (but without evidence).

But whenever science is allowed to work without political interference, it discovers some fascinating things. For instance, the fact that natural selection can make some very important changes in a small breeding population of humans over the course of hundreds or a few thousands of years.

Jews first came to Europe in the 8th and 9th centuries, long before they were known for intellectual prowess, Cochran and Harpending say. They worked as traders before taking financial jobs made available by Christians who were forbidden by the Church from charging interest. By 1100, local registries listed most Ashkenazi Jews as lenders.

That set the stage for natural selection to do its work, Cochran and Harpending theorized. Jews didn't intermarry, keeping their gene pool closed. They were subjected to periodic persecution, which kept the population from outgrowing its professional niche.

According to the theory, the smartest individuals made the most money, and the wealthiest families had the most surviving children. The genes of the most intelligent Jews spread most, slowly raising the average IQ of the entire group.

Over 40 generations -- roughly 1,000 years -- an increase of just 0.3 points per generation would have added up to a cumulative advantage of 12 points, Cochran and Harpending theorized. Some of their other models projected a benefit of 16 to 20 IQ points. _LAT

Consider it a natural experiment in eugenics, with a very big payoff for humanity as a whole. Trickle down eugenics, if you will, where the benefits flowing from the scientific discovery and commercial enterprise of highly intelligent persons are propagated to society at large via western civilisation's slow enlightenment.

The coexistence of high rates of disease genes with high rates of genius within this population might be considered unfortunate. It is important for researchers to learn how to separate the beneficial effects of the genes from the disease-causing effects as soon as possible. But in a "politically correct" world of blindered leftists, who will fund the research?

It would be easy to test the theory, said Steven Pinker, a Harvard cognition researcher: "See if carriers of the Ashkenazi-typical genetic mutations score higher on IQ tests than their noncarrier siblings."

Cochran and Harpending readily acknowledge the need for such experiments. But they have no plans to do them. They say their role as theorists is to generate hypotheses that others can test.

"One criticism about our paper is 'It can't mean anything because they didn't do any new experiments,' " Cochran said. "OK, then I guess Einstein's papers didn't mean anything either." _LAT

The left is frightened of what scientists might find, should they be allowed to proceed with research that seeks out links between genes and intelligence. They have constructed a nice neat habitat of denial which suits their tastes. Card construction is not durable -- particularly with foundations of sand -- but it can last quite a long time with all the clown's horses and all the clown's men propping it up. Failure to prop up would mean loss of ideological purity, leading to an inevitable exile into outer darkness.

Natural History of Ashkenazi Intelligence (PDF) Cochran, Hardy, Harpending

The 10.000 Year Explosion by Greg Cochran and Henry Harpending Official Website

Order The 10,000 Year Explosion at Amazon.com

That Will be $80 Trillion -- Cash or Charge?

It's impossible to know the government's real liabilities right now, thanks to all of the off-balance sheet items and quasi-governmental insurance groups. But you can make a rough estimate...

Let's say $20 trillion for the on-balance sheet spending. Another roughly $50 trillion is coming for unfunded entitlement programs, and probably another $10 trillion for all of the various guarantees to PBGC, FDIC, and Fannie/Freddie. That gets us to something around $80 trillion by 2019 – and my estimate is likely too conservative by a large percentage because it assumes tax revenues can grow substantially. _Source

That is just the government butcher's bill. In the private sector, things are not looking so hot, either, thanks to labour unions and their killer "defined pensions." Time for Americans to come back to reality. No one can guarantee your future, your secure retirement. Particularly now that the Obama / Pelosi reich have taken a wrecking ball to the US economy. The sooner you learn that you are on your own, the better.

I submit that people who think defined-benefit pensions – any other type of “guaranteed” retirement plan -- are the solution to the country's retirement insecurity are not seeing the whole picture. What we have learned from defined-benefit pensions, and Social Security, is that it’s very difficult to keep them solvent, either due to the difficulty in forecasting the future or to the ease of kicking the hard choices down the road. Either way, the result is that such programs have to be shored up later, often at the expense of those who are still working.

Perhaps the real lesson is that the retirement of the future will be "guaranteed" (note the quotes) only for people who save and learn like mad. _MotleyFool

You may never have to "go John Galt", but if you take the time to be sure that you could do so if you had to, you might rest a bit easier at night.

The economy is broken, and with Obama, the government is broken. Your future security is up to you now.

Forget Stem Cells! Switch Cell Types by Simply Changing the Messenger RNA

"What's new about this approach is that we didn't have to make the host cell pluripotent, that is the ability to develop into any of three major tissue types, we can directly convert from one cell type to another, without the intermediate step," explains Eberwine. _Physorg

This sounds much too easy to be true, so it probably won't be that simple. But something interesting is happening when you can turn a neuron into an astrocyte simply by injecting astrocytic mRNA into the neuron.

By simply flooding one cell type, a nerve cell, with the an abundance of a specific type of messenger RNA (mRNA) from another cell type, the investigators changed a neuron into an astrocyte-like cell, a star-shaped brain cell that helps to maintain the blood-brain barrier, regulates the chemical environment around cells, responds to injury, and releases regulatory substances.

James Eberwine, PhD, Elmer Holmes Bobst Professor of Pharmacology, Junhyong Kim, PhD, Edmund J. and Louise W. Kahn Term Endowed Professor of Biology and first author Jai-Yoon Sul, PhD, Assistant Professor of Pharmacology, and colleagues report their findings online this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. This approach offers the possibility for a new type of cell-based therapy for neurodegenerative and other diseases.

"In some ways, this is akin to what a virus does," explains Eberwine, "When a virus infects a cell it affects the host cell genome and the RNAs that it can make." By putting the RNA of one cell type, in the correct amounts, into another cell type, we were able to change its function."

"This research overturns the notion that all cells are permanently hardwired with little ability to change their physiology," notes Sul. _PO

This is just the beginning, of course. With better tools for manipulating the molecules of life inside living tissues and cells, the learning shifts into warp speed.

Soon, artificially created viruses will be performing these tasks like tiny nanobots, driving cell and tissue development in animals, plants, large-scale tissue vats, etc. It is time for biology to start getting a little respect.

Stand By to Repel Boarders! 10 Hi Tech Ways

"Standard maritime doctrine is that crews should not resist once boarders are on deck," he says. "The [Somali] pirates are really just after the ransom money, so it's best to keep things as calm as possible." _Source

In today's politically correct world, using deadly force to repel pirates is simply not done -- at least in polite international maritime company. That means that politically correct captains and crew must find non-lethal means to repel unwelcome guests on the high seas. Here are a few:

Fire hoses. The simplest way to repel boarders is to train high-pressure hoses on them. Spraying them straight down the sides of the ship at bad guys trying to climb aboard usually works. But there's a catch — if there's more baddies standing in the speedboats aiming guns at the crew, then you have to give up.

Remote-controlled fire hoses. To get around that logistical problem, several companies market high-pressure water cannons that can wash pirates overboard without exposing anyone to enemy fire.

Molotov cocktails. If ships' crews aren't given weapons, they can always make their own. In December, Somali pirates shadowed the Zhenhua 4, a Chinese cargo ship, for days, giving its crew ample time to prepare a stockpile of Molotov cocktails using empty beer bottles.

The baddies got on board, but the crew used the homemade bombs and fire hoses to fend them off for six hours, enough time for Malaysian Navy helicopters to show up and scare the pirates away.

Sonic weapons. In November 2005, the cruise ship Seabourn Spirit in the western Indian Ocean fended off pirate speedboats, partly by blasting them with an long range acoustic device (LRAD), which is designed to cause painful level of sound up to 300 meters away. (The Seabourn Spirit also ran over one of the speedboats.)

Slippery foam. Boat decks are wet places. Somali pirates are often barefoot. Hence the need for what the acronym-happy Marine Corps calls its Mobility Denial System (MDS), also known as Non-Lethal Slippery Foam (NLSF) or Anti-Traction Material (ATM).

Basically, it's water, drilling-mud additive (used for boreholes) and a flocculent, an electrically charged suspension of solids that makes liquids even more slippery. No one's actually deployed this stuff yet, but a few serious squirts would send pirates sliding around helplessly like happy penguins on an ice floe.

Rubber bullets. Riot police typically fire non-lethal projectiles from real guns, which wouldn't be allowed on many ships. But high-powered air guns could fire plastic or rubber bullets almost as easily, causing pain if not serious injury to boarders hit in the torso or limbs. Head shots could cause injury or even death, however, and there's always the chance they could be used in a mutiny.

Electric fencing. At least one company sells a high-voltage fence that sticks horizontally outward from a ship's sides, zapping any would-be boarders like so many wayward cattle.

"Only a few [ships have that] so far," says Quick. "I don't know if it's worked or not. In the long run, nothing will against a persistent group of pirates."

Nets. In the same way that police lay out nail strips to stop speeding cars, ships could launch small nets into the water to entangle the propellers of the pirate speedboats. The Coast Guard and the Dept. of Defense are testing these by dropping these from helicopters, but it's possible smaller versions could be launched from the stern of a cargo ship using the sort of catapults that launch clay pigeons in skeet shooting.

Blinding weapons. Airline pilots already deal with jokers who shine laser pointers into the cockpits of landing planes. Pirates might have to face the Dazzle Gun, a futuristic-looking laser rifle designed by the Air Force that temporarily blinds adversaries who get too close to bases and personnel.

The pain ray. The Air Force had fun a couple of year ago bringing reporters to a test facility at Moody Air Force base in Georgia and zapping them with the Active Denial System, a truck-mounted weapon that focuses a tight beam of electromagnetic waves on your skin.

Basically, it's like sticking your hand in a microwave oven. It's nonlethal and very painful. There's a smaller version as well that's effective up to 500 yards, which might work against pirates coming up to a ship. _FoxNews

A final, top-secret method of repelling pirates is related to the blinding weapons mentioned above. A highly trained maritime model, such as the one pictured to the left, will use a secret tooth-whitening agent [advertisement] prior to every voyage. As soon as pirates approach the ship, the model will release a dazzling smile, temporarily blinding the pirates and allowing the ship and crew to escape. Amazingly enough, the method works in either direct sunlight or overcast -- even at night. All that is required is for a small LED-style flashlight to be directed at the maritime model's highly whitened teeth.

Free Treasure Trove of Rational Self-Education

F.A. Hayek Interviewed By John O'Sullivan from FEE on Vimeo
The best education is the one you provide for yourself. The Internet is proving to be an invaluable provider of educational materials. Thanks to SimoleonSense blog, I recently discovered the FEE (Foundation for Economic Education) channel of videos on Vimeo. These videos come from the venerable nonprofit educational foundation, FEE, located in Irvington, NY. Books published and distributed by FEE were pivotal in the breakthrough educational period of Al Fin, as he made the important transition from natural born sheep to radical contrarian.

I should remind you that there will be no natural-born sheep among next level humans. And needless to say, there will be no Obama zombies -- who are infinitely less capable of thinking for themselves than natural-born sheep.

The power structures of the world are intent on keeping as many persons in the helpless, brain-dead state as possible. It is what your upbringing and education -- not to mention your socialisation among your peers -- has conditioned you to be. Only a "strong move to the light" will allow you to pull yourself clear of the bog of mindlessness in which most of humanity is mired. The light of reason, that is.

FEE is only one tool out of many, but it is an extremely useful and valuable tool. Pick it up, and use it well.

Shadow Economy to the Rescue?

Even in developed countries like the United States, as much as 10 percent is in the so-called shadow economy. But when times are hard, the figure can rise to as much as 40 percent. In times of crisis, people are very creative in looking for ways and means of making both ends meet. _MT

By the time Americans tally all of the local, state, and federal taxes they must pay, they might easily find that they are paying over 60% of their hard-won income to the bottomless pit of an insatiable bureaucracy. The cleverer ones may very well begin to consider alternatives.

The size of the shadow economy varies from region to region. In northern Europe and Scandinavia it represents between 10 and 18 percent of official GDP. In Mediterranean countries such as Portugal and Italy, the sector makes up 20 to 25 percent.

Many former Communist EU countries have shadow sectors in the Mediterranean range. But in Estonia, Latvia, Romania and Bulgaria the estimate clocks in at 36 to 39 percent.

The figures for EU neighbours can be much higher. In Belarus and Moldova, around half of economic activity bypasses the state. In Ukraine, about 57 percent. In Georgia, 68 percent.

The existence of a shadow economy up to the 25 percent mark can improve ordinary people's quality of life, the Austrian academic believes. _BW

Certainly the use of barter will increase. Bolder communities will explore the use of alternative currencies, although in the current quasi-fascist environment one must be very cautious of the IRS, Homeland Security, BATF, and other corrupt and hyper-zealous units of the Obama / Pelosi reich.

Corruption within the US government is growing, perhaps eventually to rival corruption levels in the third world. Should the O / P reich continue to ravage the productive sectors of the economy for much longer, the damage will no doubt be deep and irrevocable.

Consider the ways in which you can protect yourselves and your loved ones from the governmental wrecking ball. Your clear thinking and timely actions may prevent the worst of what is coming.

As the Sun Weakens, the Earth Cools

You may be aware that the sun is in a deep solar minimum, with an ultra-low sunspot count. Besides sunspot number, the sun is behaving strangely in other ways.

"Lately, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have become very slow, so slow that they have to be dragged away from the sun by the solar wind," says researcher Angelos Vourlidas of the Naval Research Lab. Here is an example from April 11th:

Each second in the SOHO animation corresponds to an hour or more of real time. "The speed of the CME was only 240 km/s," says Vourlidas. "The solar wind speed is about 300 km/s, so the CME is actually being dragged."

Vourlidas has examined thousands of CMEs recorded by SOHO over the past 13 years, and he's rarely seen such plodding explosions. In active times, CMEs can blast away from the sun faster than 1000 km/s. Even during the solar minimum of 1996, CMEs often revved up to 500 or 600 km/s. "Almost all the CMEs we've seen since the end of April 2008, however, are very slow, less than 300 km/s."

Is this just another way of saying "the sun is very quiet?" Or do slow-motion CMEs represent a new and interesting phenomena? The jury is still out. One thing is clear: solar minimum is more interesting than we thought. _spaceweather_via_FreshBilge

Meanwhile, back on Earth, the climate is getting distinctly colder. March 2009 was the coldest March this millenium, and April is on track to be even colder compared to other Aprils.

The sun is in a deep slumber. Arctic sea ice is growing ever thicker since 2007, and Antarctic sea ice extent is growing alarmingly. More reputable scientists are disputing the IPCC's myopic anti-scientific fascism.

More up to the minute news about the dismantling of the faux crisis of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) here and here.

Still Waiting for Space Solar Power, 40 Years On

Back in 1968 Peter Glaser detailed an ambitious plan for energy independence, using solar power from orbiting photovoltaic arrays. The technology for large-scale solar panel manufacture wasn't ready for anthing that ambitious back then, although heavy space launch infrastructure was in much better shape. Regardless, the idea is being resurrected by a startup company:

Now Solaren Corporation, a startup based in Manhattan Beach, CA, is trying to get the idea off the ground. It's working with the California utility Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), which intends to enter into a power-purchase agreement with the company. If the agreement is approved by regulators, starting in 2016, the utility will purchase 200 megawatts of power from Solaren at an undisclosed price--that is, if the startup can get a system into space and working by then. The company has already selected a site in California for the receiving station; it hasn't said exactly where, but it will be close to a PG&E substation and won't require long-distance transmission lines.

Solaren hasn't released many details about the system. CEO Gary Spirnak says that it's conceptually the same as communications satellite technology: it uses solar panels to generate electricity, which gets sent to Earth in the form of radio waves, which are received by antennas on Earth. In a Q & A published by PG&E, he said that the design is "a significant departure from past efforts," so it will be economically feasible. The first system will reportedly be able to generate 1,000 megawatts--about the size of many conventional power plants. The company will need to raise billions of dollars to construct the plant. Right now, it only has 10 employees. _TechReview

More information at Next Big Future, and at New Energy and Fuel

From Al Fin Energy

One Family Goes John Galt

He hunts deer and turkeys. Instead of buying books and going to movies, they visit the library weekly. For Christmas, they got canning gear so they can preserve the food they grow.

"The earn, spend, earn era has come to an end for us," he says on truenorthfound.blogspot.com, their blog. "The idea of living a fuller, more satisfying life seems simple to us now. ... Money, cash, credit, maybe they don't matter. Maybe, just maybe, it is those things that impede our ability to be truly happy."...They stopped using credit cards and they're trying to build up savings. "I'm working harder than ever," Patrick says, "but it's more satisfying work and ... it's much easier to sleep at night." _USAToday

It seems to be easy for tenured government-dependent clowns and incompetents to laugh at the "flyover country fools" who actually work for a living, obey the rules, and pay their taxes on April 15 -- so the tenured clowns can live it up and laugh at the "tea baggers." But mainstream freeloaders of one corrupt bureaucracy or another should have been paying attention instead of just laughing at the protestors. The people holding those signs are ordinary people who never considered protesting until now. Something drove them to that point of decision. And now they are considering a lot more options than simple protest. Many of them are considering cutting back on their economic activity. Cutting waaaaaaayyy back! As in John Galt back. Call it the "Obama effect."

Hard times are creating economic survivalists such as the Wojtowicz family who are paring expenses by becoming more self-sufficient.

Reviving "almost lost" skills and preparing for tough days make people feel more in control, says Charlotte Richert, consumer sciences educator for Oklahoma State University's Extension Service in Tulsa County.

Karen Gulliver, MBA program chair at Argosy University in Eagan, Minn., expects the movement to grow as the sour economy forces people to reassess priorities. People are asking, "Do I really want to be 100% vulnerable with no self-sufficiency skills if something happens?" she says.

Some signs of the trend:

•Stockpiling. When the stock market drops, orders surge for freeze-dried food, survival kits and emergency supplies, says Nitro-Pak president Harry Weyandt. One best seller: a $3,375 food reserve that feeds four people for three months.

•Gardening. Sales of vegetable seeds and transplants are up 30% from 2008 at W. Atlee Burpee, the USA's largest seed company. The National Gardening Association says 7 million more households will grow food this year than in 2008 — a 19% rise. A book on building root cellars is the top seller at Johnny's Selected Seeds in Winslow, Maine, supervisor Joann Matuzas says.

•Canning. Jarden Corp. says sales of its Ball and Kerr canning and preserving products are up more than 30% from 2008. Sonya Staffan, owner of The Jam and Jelly Lady commercial cannery in Lebanon, Ohio, is offering twice as many classes this year.

•Sewing. More people are learning to sew so they can mend clothes and make home décor, says Rachel Cohen, spokeswoman for SVP Worldwide, owner of sewing-products makers Singer and Husqvarna Viking.

•Relocating. Steve Saltman, general manager of LandAndFarm.com, a national real estate company, says more customers want to "live simply in a less-expensive place." Jonathan Rawles of SurvivalRealty.com says more people moving to rural areas "are specifically worried about economic and social instability." _USAT

This is gradual self-extraction from the mainstream economy. A form of stealth "John Galt-ing" that is unlikely to be broadly noticed until it has penetrated deeply into the productive population. There will be many levels of economic dropping-out before this Obama depression runs its course, and before much of the freeloading class is unceremoniously dumped on their asses. Obama himself -- and a large proportion of his zombie horde -- lacks the personal heft to ever comprehend what is happening. His brain-rotted following is quite large, so a rapid return to sanity is unlikely.

But if those who can, won't (at least not in the open where the tax collectors can see), eventually those who can't are going to have to either make concessions or do without. Interesting times. There are limits to what government borrowing, lightspeed printing presses, and Obamanamanomics can do when the wheels of commerce are starting to fall off the machine.

The Only Hope for Democracy is for the People to Wake Up and Act In Their Own Interests

Update 17 April 2009: PJTV provides multimedia coverage from dozens of sites of Tea Party Celebratory Protests. Over 500,000 persons attended the celebrations in the US alone.
Update: Multiple links to Tea Party coverage w/ comments from multiple points of view. It seems the map below grossly underestimates the number of cities, towns, and communities that hosted Tea Party celebratory protests today.It has been a long time since regular working Americans could find a cause that would get them to pack up the babies, grab the old ladies, and have everyone go to the protest. Today's tax day Tea Party protests are likely to be atypically calm and peaceful, compared to your average left-wing moneybags organised angry spittle bussed in outing. Not that your clueless leftist agitproper is likely to let the opportunity go to waste:

The Left’s response to Tax Day Tea Party events has been pure Saul Alinsky Rules for Radicals: Ridicule. But in the Chicago socialist’s day, the tool kit did not include embedding bogus newsie posers at opposition events. Beware such chicanery today. From DKos via MM:

“Tomorrow, my husband and I will be venturing into the wilds disguised as a news crew to do some in person interviewers with teabaggers here in Rhode Island (if we can find any) … We’re going to ask open ended questions that seem to have a slight conservative bent to (hopefully) get them to open up and just start ranting. Then, we take any examples of racism, hatred, ignorance, and stupidity that we catch on camera and make a little movie out of it. Probably a YouTube special. Here’s the list we have so far

* What are you celebrating (The Boston Tea Party), and can you explain its historical relevance? [We're hoping to get some hilarious flubs from this one]

* Do you approve of Michael Steele’s plan to expand the GOP through a “hip-hop urban-suburban marketing strategy”? [hoping to get some juicy racist stuff from this question]

* (as an intentional misunderstanding/follow up, presuming that someone complains about wasteful government spending) “So you disapprove of your tax dollars going to the Iraq War?” [should elicit some confusion]

Anyways, it’s a start… but I’d love to have some suggestions for questions that sound fine, but should prompt an outpouring of crazy.” _TaxDayTeaParty

Anything to get the old bags out of the house, I always say. There will no doubt be a lot of selective editing going on, but this time there will be plenty of unedited video from many cameras, so that we can all judge what really happened. Not like the political interviews by CBS or ABC news in the past election, where everything that didn't fit with the message was left on the cutting-room floor.

The Obama / Pelosi reich may very well be the Waterloo of the US news and entertainment media. They worked so hard to gain control of "the message." But just like Ceausescu or Mussolini, things eventually fall apart. This may be the age to see it happen.

Democracy is worthless unless the people have genuine choices and genuine options for redress of grievances. The modern US political system does not provide either.

Obama's Glass

Image SourceRemember, no matter how many of your windows get broken by thrown bricks, Obama's Glass always stands ready to repair and replace. A warranty to that effect comes with every brick.

A glass company like no other, because there is no other. There can be only The One.

Slower Economy Puts Drag on Rocket Races

The Rocket Racing League has been forced to delay the start of its racing season due to a slower economy and early design flaws in the rockets themselves. But plans are still on for a two-rocket demo at this September's Reno Air Races. More ambitious plans for a race to sub-orbital space had to be postponed even further due to technological and economic concerns.

Last year, the league demonstrated its first-generation racer, equipped with engines from California-based XCOR Aerospace, at the AirVenture show in Oshkosh. This year's time line calls for two Armadillo-powered planes to fly at September's Reno Air Races. "We're going to put on a pretty good show there," Whitelaw said.

Additional demonstration flights may take place after that, but full-blown rocket races with prizes may have to wait until 2011, Whitelaw said. "It's really a matter of waiting for the economy to sort itself out," he said.

....In the meantime, XCOR Aerospace is plugging along on its plans to get its Lynx Mark 1 rocket plane into the test-flight phase by next year. XCOR's CEO, Jeff Greason, told me that the engineering test vehicle was under construction and the rocket engines are undergoing testing.

Greason acknowledged that raising money for rocket ventures was tough in the current economic environment. But then again, he added, "I haven't ever noticed when it was easy."

Although Greason has never announced that there's enough money in the bank to get the Lynx off the ground, XCOR just keeps going, and going, and going. That's thanks in large part to its stealthy ability to leverage the know-how gained through a variety of contracts - including its now-done deal with the Rocket Racing League. _CosmicLog

Sooner or later, we will have rocket races. Atmospheric, sub-orbital, and to the moon. To infinity and beyond may require more advanced technology.

Robots Will Farm and Log the Future

The six-legged robotic logger featured in the above video is just the beginning of the infiltration of robots into logging and farming. Maintaining healthy forests and healthy crops is a lot of work. Physically demanding and often menial, these chores are almost perfectly designed for a robot's strengths.

The successful development of [agricultural] robots could potentially bring a two-fold advantage to modern agricultural techniques. Firstly, the specificity with which robots work – the ability to deliver nutrients directly to the plant on an as-need basis – could greatly reduce the amount of resources and money spent on crop maintenance. Second, the ability to harvest specialty crops could significantly lower the amount of time and back-breaking labor associated with picking fruits and vegetables

“Agriculture contributes a lot of damage to the land, the soil, the water and environment,” Rus explained. “So if we can figure out a way of using robots and automation to deliver nutrients to plants – pesticides, fertilizers, water when it’s needed – instead of sort of mass spreading them, then we hope we would have an impact on the environment.” _RedOrbit

This development is inevitable, particularly with the coming of biofuels from agricultural and forestry waste. Robots can be perfectly equipped to gather, compress, and otherwise densify agricultural and forestry waste biomass. After preliminary on-site densification, waste biomass can be economically transported to local and regional pre-processing and processing plants for conversion into various forms of portable energy such as torrefied biomass, pyrolysis oils, syngas, biomass cubes and pellets, etc. Or the compacted biomass may be co-fired with coal to produce electricity.

Eveything depends upon the economical collection and densification of the waste biomass on-site. Robots -- perhaps solar-powered robots -- are potentially perfect for the task.

Cross-posted on Al Fin Energy

Genetic Diversity Where None Was Expected

Most scientists had believed until recently that silent mutations had no effect on an organism. Thanks to researchers at the Univesity of Pennsylvania, we have learned that "silent mutations" -- although they do not change the encoded protein product of the gene -- can change the quantity of the encoded protein that is produced.

The silent mutations changed the amount of fluorescent protein by as much as 250-fold, without changing the properties of the protein. Codon bias, the probability that one codon of three adjacent nucleotides will code for one amino acid over another, was previously thought to be the cause for protein expression variance, but it did not correlate with gene expression in these experiments.

"At first we were stumped," Plotkin said. "How were the silent mutations influencing protein levels? Eventually, we looked at mRNA structure and discovered that this was the underlying mechanism." MedNewsToday

The number of ways that humans can vary by gene expression, yet still possess almost identical genomes on superficial inspection, is immense and growing larger.

Non-coding RNAs are a large part of the reason why. "Junk DNA" that isn't really junk. The surface of gene expression and gene switching is barely being scratched, and now we find yet another source of subtle variation in gene expression.

These are exciting times for geneticists and for anyone with an interest in gene expression, and potential gene therapies.

Timothy McVeigh is Alive and Well on a Canadian Organic Chicken Farm, Plotting the Destruction of All Modern Civilisation

Be sure to check out this CBC special report on Peak Oil Doomers. The peak oil movement is well sprinkled with extremists who are not only preparing for a collapse of civilisation, but are actively working to bring it about. The catastrophic global warming movement also attracts its share of intellectuals who have a soft spot in their heart for violent radicalism.

In fact, wherever one looks in the mainstream faux environmental movement, one will find poorly concealed sympathies for the use of violence to bring about revolutionary change in the economic systems of regions, countries, and the world. One might be forgiven for thinking that the entire faux environmental front is just a cover for its many intellectuals who harbour a desire to see a violent overthrow of the established order.

The CBC is too often like the BBC in its coddling and encouragement of these marginals. A more critical investigation of this phenomenon might have reflected better on the organisation.

Science Evolves and Changes Naturally w/ Time

Every science should be viewed as temporary. The sciences are constantly accumulating new information and new data which must be reconciled with "established" science, and incorporated where possible. Sometimes established science must be discarded like a soiled diaper in the light of new information. Science is not about "facts", after all, but rather a way of reasoning.

Science is an evolving discipline. Various fields are constantly being born while others are dying away. For example, 20 years ago, quantum computing was a mere twinkle in its founders' eyes as was proteomics a mere ten years ago. And in the same time scale, a large part of chemistry has morphed in nanotechnology.

...Communities regularly merge and create new groups of ideas. That's to be expected if the anecdotal evidence is anything to go by but they find some more interesting phenomena too.

For example, communities that are more willing to reinvent themselves tend to be the ones that have most impact per paper. But it also shows that communities with higher impact per paper tend be shorter-lived. _TechnologyReview

When political and financial interests exert excessive influence on science, it loses its natural evolutionary vitality and becomes set in bureaucratic concrete. This is clearly happening in the field of climate modeling and the carbon hysteria establishment. Sadly, the Obama administration is injecting politics into the scientific process at unprecedented levels since the days of Stalin. It is unclear whether the already weakened US economy can withstand this level of top-down interference -- particularly when the end result is energy starvation and a strong artificial upward pressure on energy prices. (political peak oil)

Sciences are born, sciences merge, split, and sciences die. That is the nature of healthy evolution in the world of contested ideas. Greedy and corrupt politicians and financiers cannot help interfering with the process. We must save what can be saved from the mash and do what we can. It should be enough.

Intelligence is Not an Algorithm

Algorithms involve several forms of abstraction. First, an algorithm consists of clear specifications for what should be performed in each step, but not necessarily clear specifications for how. In essence, an algorithm takes a problem specifying what should be achieved and breaks it into smaller problems with simpler requirements for what should be achieved. An algorithm should specify steps simple enough that what becomes identical to how as far as the person or machine executing the algorithm is concerned. _NewAtlantis

Anyone who has programmed computers understands the central role of algorithms to modern computing. An algorithm is a sequence (often involving iteration and/or recursion) of steps for converting an input into a useful output. Coming up with just the right algorithm to do a job often requires a high level of intelligence. Intelligence --> Good algorithm. Unfortunately, it does not work in reverse: Good algorithm --> Intelligence.

Properly understood, the first question underlying the AI debate is: Can the properties of the mind be completely described on their own terms as an algorithm? Recall that an algorithm has a definite start and end state and consists of a set of well-defined rules for transitioning from start state to end state. As we have already seen, it was the explicit early claim of AI proponents that the answer to this question was yes: the properties of the mind, they believed, could be expressed algorithmically (or “procedurally,” to use a more general term). But the AI project has thus far failed to prove this answer, and AI researchers seem to have understood this failure without acknowledging it.

...Once the unlikelihood of procedurally describing the mind at a high level is accepted, the issue becomes whether the mind can be replicated at some lower level in order to recreate the high level, raising the next important question: Are the layers of physical systems, and thus the layers of the mind and brain, separable in the same way as the layers of the computer?...it is correct to explain computers in terms of separable layers, since that is how they are designed. Physical systems, on the other hand, are not designed at all. They exist prior to human intent; we separate them into layers as a method of understanding their behavior. Psychology and physics, for example, can each be used to answer a distinct set of questions about a single physical system—the brain. We rely on hierarchies to explain physical systems, but we actually engineer hierarchies into computers.

...What is the basic functional unit of the mind? If the mind were a computer, it would be possible to completely describe its behavior as a procedure. That procedure would have to use certain basic operations, which are executed by some functional unit of the brain. The early hypothesis of AI was that this question was essentially irrelevant since the mind’s operations could be described at such a high level that the underlying hardware was inconsequential. Researchers today eschew such a large-scale approach, instead working under the assumption that the mind, like a computer program, might be a collection of modules, and so we can replicate the modules and eventually piece them back together—which is why research projects today focus on very specific subsystems of intelligence and learning.

...The unit of the mind typically targeted for replication is the neuron, and the assumption has thus been that the neuron is the basic functional unit of the mind. The neuron has been considered a prime candidate because it appears to have much in common with modules of computer systems: It has an electrical signal, and it has input and output for that signal in the form of dendrites and axons. It seems like it would be relatively straightforward, then, to replicate the neuron’s input-output function on a computer, scan the electrical signals of a person’s brain, and boot up that person’s mind on a suitably powerful computer.

...Every indication is that, rather than a neatly separable hierarchy like a computer, the mind is a tangled hierarchy of organization and causation. Changes in the mind cause changes in the brain, and vice versa. To successfully replicate the brain in order to simulate the mind, it will be necessary to replicate every level of the brain that affects and is affected by the mind.

...The fact that the mind is a machine just as much as anything else in the universe is a machine tells us nothing interesting about the mind. If the strong AI project is to be redefined as the task of duplicating the mind at a very low level, it may indeed prove possible—but the result will be something far short of the original goal of AI.

If we achieve artificial intelligence without really understanding anything about intelligence itself—without separating it into layers, decomposing it into modules and subsystems—then we will have no idea how to control it. We will not be able to shape it, improve upon it, or apply it to anything useful. Without having understood and replicated specific mental properties on their own terms, we will not be able to abstract them away—or, as the transhumanists hope, to digitize abilities and experiences, and thus upload and download them in order to transfer our consciousnesses into virtual worlds and enter into the minds of others. _NewAtlantis_via_SimoleonSense

Be sure to read the rest at the link above. I have been interested in artificial intelligence since the early 1990s, and was initially quite optimistic about the prospects for the creation of an intelligent machine brain. Over the years, as I learned more about both machines and the brain, I have modified my expectations quite significantly.

I have become far more interested in questions of human cognition -- and how cognition in humans might be improved -- than in the development of intelligent machines. Questions having to do with the difference between rationality and intelligence, or understanding what makes super-intelligent people tick, are far more engaging to me than hearing about which robot was best able to imitate human facial expression or body movement.

Needless to say, every aspect of human intelligence, from the genetic, tothe molecular, to the neuronal, to the cortical columnar level and up, will come under scrutiny repeatedly in the quest for a fuller understanding of how the mind works -- and how it might be made to work better.

You can be sure that politicians and their enablers want to know how to pull your strings. Some of us, on the other hand, would rather everyone learn to pull his own strings -- and what it means to do so.

Intelligence is not an algorithm, but good algorithms will prove extremely helpful in the quest for intelligence -- and everything complex that we attempt. It is likely that most of us will eventually carry algorithmic co-processors that function as cognitive aids and augments. We will probably find it difficult to function at our highest levels without them.

H/T SimoleonSense

Consent is the Death of the Mind

Science is based upon dissent and heresy. When a person consents to surrender his reason to a consensus of other "minds", his own brain begins to atrophy. That is how scientists can maintain the edge of their rationality -- through constant dissent. With consent comes the death of reason.

World-renowned Australian geologist, Ian Plimer, is publishing a magnum opus, Heaven and Earth. The 500 page book has 2311 footnotes, and is based upon 40 years of research and experience in Earth Sciences. Professor Plimer pulls no punches and does not tolerate fools.

Much of what we have read about climate change, he argues, is rubbish, especially the computer modelling on which much current scientific opinion is based, which he describes as "primitive". Errors and distortions in computer modelling will be exposed in time. (As if on cue, the United Nations' peak scientific body on climate change was obliged to make an embarrassing admission last week that some of its computers models were wrong.)....

....If we look at the last 6 million years, the Earth was warmer than it is now for 3 million years. The ice caps of the Arctic, Antarctica and Greenland are geologically unusual. Polar ice has only been present for less than 20 per cent of geological time. What follows is an intense compression of the book's 500 pages and all their provocative arguments and conclusions:

Is dangerous warming occurring? No.

Is the temperature range observed in the 20th century outside the range of normal variability? No.

The Earth's climate is driven by the receipt and redistribution of solar energy. Despite this crucial relationship, the sun tends to be brushed aside as the most important driver of climate. Calculations on supercomputers are primitive compared with the complex dynamism of the Earth's climate and ignore the crucial relationship between climate and solar energy.

"To reduce modern climate change to one variable, CO2, or a small proportion of one variable - human-induced CO2 - is not science. To try to predict the future based on just one variable (CO2) in extraordinarily complex natural systems is folly. Yet when astronomers have the temerity to show that climate is driven by solar activities rather than CO2 emissions, they are dismissed as dinosaurs undertaking the methods of old-fashioned science."

Over time, the history of CO2 content in the atmosphere has been far higher than at present for most of time. Atmospheric CO2 follows temperature rise. It does not create a temperature rise. CO2 is not a pollutant. Global warming and a high CO2 content bring prosperity and longer life.

The hypothesis that human activity can create global warming is extraordinary because it is contrary to validated knowledge from solar physics, astronomy, history, archaeology and geology. "But evidence no longer matters. And any contrary work published in peer-reviewed journals is just ignored. We are told that the science on human-induced global warming is settled. Yet the claim by some scientists that the threat of human-induced global warming is 90 per cent certain (or even 99 per cent) is a figure of speech. It has no mathematical or evidential basis."

Observations in nature differ markedly from the results generated by nearly two dozen computer-generated climate models. These climate models exaggerate the effects of human CO2 emissions into the atmosphere because few of the natural variables are considered. Natural systems are far more complex than computer models.

The setting up by the UN of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1988 gave an opportunity to make global warming the main theme of environmental groups. "The IPCC process is related to environmental activism, politics and opportunism. It is unrelated to science. Current zeal around human-induced climate change is comparable to the certainty professed by Creationists or religious fundamentalists." _SidneyMorningHerald

The entire enterprise of the climate catastrophe orthodoxy is based upon groupthink, and the maintaining of groupthink discipline. Like the party discipline of Maoist China or Stalinist USSR, the liberal uses of purges and figurative exile are necessary to maintain the illusion of infallibility.

Intelligent people can be caught in the trap of groupthink -- particularly if their livelihoods are involved. But persons who are both intelligent and conscientious will avoid groupthink consensus like the plague. Because it is a plague, manifested by widespread brain rot. Those who would preserve their brains and avoid zombie-hood, will avoid the brain rot of consent. It is to them, that Plimer appeals.

H/T Tom Nelson

Reality Poses Annoying Distraction for Obama

The Reuters headline put it this way: “Pirates Pose Annoying Distraction For Obama.” _Steyn

It is not only pirates that pose an annoying distraction for the clown president. The whole world distracts most annoyingly from the main attraction on the stage, The One, Dear Leader, Messiah for Life.

As it happens, Somali piracy is not a distraction, but a glimpse of the world the day after tomorrow. In my book America Alone, I quote Robert D. Kaplan referring to the lawless fringes of the map as “Indian Territory.” It’s a droll jest but a misleading one, since the very phrase presumes that the badlands will one day be brought within the bounds of the ordered world. In fact, a lot of today’s badlands were relatively ordered not so long ago, and many of them are getting badder and badder by the day.

...According to Chatham House in London, Somali pirates made about $30 million in ransom and booty last year. Thirty mil goes a long way in Somalia, making piracy a very attractive proposition. It’s also a low-risk one. Once upon a time we killed and captured pirates. _Steyn

It is all just so much bother, for Dear Leader. He would much prefer to travel the world giving speeches before large and adoring crowds. The world will get better, just give him time. The world is already a much better place for the Obamas and friends, for George Soros, Goldman Sachs, the Chicago mafia, and the entire web of "Friends and Sponsors of Lord Barry." This year the blossoms bloom brighter, songbirds sing sweeter, and grass grows greener, thanks to The One.

We certainly do not need crews of scurvy pirates distracting from the message, now, do we? Certainly not!

"Bow down and praise The One
Give Him your money and your guns
Build Him a country that makes His Wife proud!
Lord Barry, heal the bitter ones....."

Bush the Gray, Obama the Red

There is a direct connection between the graph above and the map below. The graph above is the optimistic, wishful-thinking view of where Obama is taking America. Deeply into debt, but perhaps total catastrophe can be avoided. A more battle hardened viewpoint might state that it is precisely the total catastrophe toward which Obama is aiming. No matter. Intentional or not, catastrophe is the end result of the real fiscal and monetary trajectory of the clueless clown president.

Which is why the Tea Party movement is springing up in towns, hamlets, boroughs, and municipalities across the country. This is a grassroots movement that doesn't depend upon the ill-gotten $ billions of George Soros and his gang of economic demolition specialists. The leftist-dominated news media has studiously ignored the nationwide phenomenon, but not leftist minions such as moveon.org and other groupthinking agitprop organisations. They intend to crash the party on April 15 -- TAX DAY!!! Below are a few of the locations where Tea Party protests are scheduled to occur on tax day. If you attend one, be on the lookout for moveon.org etc. agents provocateur.These agents provocateur will be aiming for a disruption that will play well to the national media -- something to serve as a symbol of disdain at which the Katie Courics and Charlie Gibsons of the media can smirk from a distance -- objective and above the fray, as always. As if.

Certainly Obama will not back down from his radical core ideas. He has been waiting his whole life to carry them out, and now that he is so close what can possibly stop him? Watch for yourself, or attend personally. Be sure to carry a video camera and keep a video journal of the fun.

Living In "The Dollhouse" For Real

"Dollhouse" is an American television drama series set in modern day Los Angeles. The Dollhouse is a subsidiary of a large bioscience corporation that traffics in human lives and human minds. Possessing the power to erase memories and re-program minds with the recorded memories of others, The Dollhouse sends its programmed human mannequins out to fulfill the wishes of very wealthy clients.

The underlying idea -- that human minds can be erased, then re-programmed -- is absurd and likely to remain absurd into the indefinite future. But there is a sense in which The Dollhouse is very real, influencing tens and hundreds of millions of people -- some of whom you probably know. Human minds are being "erased and re-programmed" every day. A little at a time, using subtle psychological techniques at the beck and call of powerful interests.

The existence of this behavioral dream team — which also included best-selling authors Dan Ariely of MIT (Predictably Irrational) and Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein of the University of Chicago (Nudge) as well as Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman of Princeton — has never been publicly disclosed, even though its members gave Obama white papers on messaging, fundraising and rumor control as well as voter mobilization. All their proposals — among them the famous online fundraising lotteries that gave small donors a chance to win face time with Obama — came with footnotes to peer-reviewed academic research. "It was amazing to have these bullet points telling us what to do and the science behind it," Moffo tells TIME. "These guys really know what makes people tick."

President Obama is still relying on behavioral science. But now his Administration is using it to try to transform the country. Because when you know what makes people tick, it's a lot easier to help them change. _Time_via_SimoleonSense

These leftist academics were more than willing to lend their expertise to the Obama campaign -- and to continue to do so. The Obama campaign, after all, never ends.

But Obama was not the beginning of deep mind manipulation of the American public. The same machine that has turned the doubtful campaign of an inexperienced baby senator into the steamrolling movement that knocked America's doors down, has been running wide open for over a decade now.

[Leftists] have created a powerhouse propaganda machine that helped Moveon.org smear a four-star general, promotes endless environmental scares and brags it can place its left wing themes in the nation's leading newspapers.

Fenton Communications pitches for trial lawyers, collectively the largest contributors to the Democrat Party, as well as for the hard line environmental group Greenpeace; Venezuela's socialist leader Hugo Chavez; anti-war demonstrator Cindy Sheehan; and gay and abortion advocates.

...Fenton, as do other [leftist] strategy groups, has a big advantage over their conservative counterparts. When a Fenton executive pitches a story to the New York Times et al., they are treated as a credible source trying to expose corporate or political evil. When a right-leaning PR firm tries to float a story, the [leftist] news media makes them the story: the vast right wing conspiracy trying to destroy an innocent [leftist].

Remember, trial lawyers are among Fenton's biggest clients. In this case, it not only handles their PR. With with the help of its client environmental groups, Fenton handed them a class-action law suit that may reap law firms millions of dollars.

Remember also that trial lawyers as a group are the largest contributors to the Democratic Party. Democratic lawmakers stop virtually every Republican effort to rein in huge jury awards that drive up the cost of health care and put some companies out of business. _HE

It's a great scam, if you don't mind being a complete slime. The left dominates the news media, academia, trial lawyers, labour unions (including teachers' unions and public employees' unions), government bureaucracy at many levels, and most of the arts and entertainment industry.

Unwitting public consumers of the news, of entertainment, and of education - cum - indoctrination ride the constantly turning mind - dump and mind - wipe carousel most of their lives, without ever being any the wiser. Like the hapless inhabitants of the world of George Orwell's "1984", these somnambulists walk through their lives never quite remembering who is at war with whom, or who is an ally and who an enemy.

It is hard to blame them -- these zombies of the modern age. No one ever gave them what they would have needed to resist the dominant themes blowing over them day after day, year after year. And so they sway with the wind, drift with the currents. It is becoming a perfect world for the mind - shapers. The really big money is certainly behind them now.

We are all dolls now.

10 Principles for a Survivable Economy

Nicholas Taleb is best known as the author of "The Black Swan". A black swan is a highly improbable event that can disrupt well laid plans, and send the future into a self destruct cycle. The current financial services crisis -- which Obama is making immeasurably worse -- is an example of what some persons consider a black swan. It is clear that our current political / economic hybrid system is not structured to deal with black swans. Taleb makes a few suggestions on how to improve it, and make it more flexible -- and more capable of surviving. (via SimoleonSense)

1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small.

2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains.

3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus.

4 Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here.

5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity.

6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning

7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”.

8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains.

9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement.

10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. _FinancialTimes_via_SimoleonSense_and_More at ZenPundit.

The Obama-ites in the White House are not “socialists” ( at least not most of them) but there is a great love of liberal-minded technocracy there, and a seemingly boundless self-confidence in the ability of high-minded, upper-middle class, progressive, wonks and lawyers from the “good schools” (or investment houses - in some cases, both) to micromanage not just our lives for us, or even the United States of America but the global economy itself. Sort of a Superempowered Oligarchy of Good Feelings.

The ancient Greeks had a word for that: hubris. More importantly, the Obama-ites are wrong here - adding endless amounts of regulatory complexity is not going to give them the kind of granular control or positive returns that they seek to obtain from the system. Counterintuitively, they should be radically simplifying where and to the degree they safely can instead. _ZenPundit

Zen Pundit has clearly located one of the largest problems with the Obama administration: its precarious dependence upon an arthritic and politically correct Ivy League view of the world which has never had sound applicability -- particularly now. Greedy, corrupt wonks -- legends in their own minds -- have grabbed control of America's pocketbooks and its potent arsenal of technology and knowledge acquisition. Obama himself is even worse, much worse, than the unscrupulous wonks working for him. There is nothing that Obama would not trade away for another fix of adulation.

Russia Is Disappearing! What Will It Mean?

Between 1976 and 1991, the last sixteen years of Soviet power, the country recorded 36 million births. In the sixteen post-Communist years of 1992–2007, there were just 22.3 million, a drop in childbearing of nearly 40 percent from one era to the next. On the other side of the life cycle, a total of 24.6 million deaths were recorded between 1976 and 1991, while in the first sixteen years of the post-Communist period the Russian Federation tallied 34.7 million deaths, a rise of just over 40 percent. The symmetry is striking: in the last sixteen years of the Communist era, births exceeded deaths in Russia by 11.4 million; in the first sixteen years of the post-Soviet era, deaths exceeded births by 12.4 million. _WorldAffairs_via_ArtsLettersDaily

Why focus on Russia's depopulation problem when Japan, Spain, Italy, Germany, and other developed and somewhat developed nations of the world are experiencing the same thing? Because Russia is particularly belligerent toward the entire world -- particularly its neighbors -- and because Russia is actively building more accurate missiles and more durable nuclear warheads. Russia is attempting to develop nanotechnology almost exclusively for its weapons potential. Russia has a potent chemical and biological weapons arsenal. And as evidenced by Russia's particular methods of self - implosion, Russia is only half - civilised, which means that Russia has no particular scruples in how it will use whatever violence projection methods it can develop and maintain.

Russia's population is slipping through the cracks of time and space, withering into a long dark winter.

Strikingly, and perhaps paradoxically, Moscow’s leadership is advancing into this uncertain terrain not only with insouciance but with highly ambitious goals. In late 2007, for example, the Kremlin outlined the objective of achieving and maintaining an average annual pace of economic growth in the decades ahead on the order of nearly 7 percent a year: on this path, according to Russian officials, GDP will quadruple in the next two decades, and the Russian Federation will emerge as the world’s fifth largest economy by 2020.

But history offers no examples of a society that has demonstrated sustained material advance in the face of long-term population decline. It seems highly unlikely that such an ambitious agenda can be achieved in the face of Russia’s current demographic crisis. Sooner or later, Russian leadership will have to acknowledge that these daunting long-term developments are shrinking their country’s social and political potential. _WAJ

Westerners need to be concerned about Russia's simultaneous megalomaniacal delusions of grandeur in combination with the striking disappearance of people from the half-western, half-eastern, frontier nation of vodka-HIV-TB, authoritarianism, and strong nihilist undercurrents.

...to date, no European society that has embarked upon the same demographic transition as Russia’s—declining marriage rates with rising divorce; the spread of cohabitation as alternative to marriage; delayed age at marriage and sub-replacement fertility regimens—has reverted to more “traditional” family patterns and higher levels of completed family size. There is no reason to think that in Russia it will be any different.

...Putin’s Kremlin made a fateful bet that natural resources—oil, gas, and other extractive saleable commodities—would be the springboard for the restoration of Moscow’s influence as a great power on the world stage. In this gamble, Russian authorities have mainly ignored the nation’s human resource crisis. During the boom years—Russia’s per capita income roughly doubled between 1998 and 2007—the country’s death rate barely budged. Very much worse may lie ahead. How Russia’s still-unfolding demographic disaster will affect the country’s domestic political situation—and its international security posture—are questions that remain to be answered. _WAJ

A realist will have long since understood that Russia's trajectory is set. The main question is how Russia will handle its death throes. Will it unleash a flight of missiles in a last gasp attempt at leaving a legacy of Russian greatness? Or will it settle quietly into its self-made grave, wrapping its death robe about it for the long sleep?

More likely the former, or any other method of striking out against anyone who may have given slight or offense to Russia. The subtext of envious vengefulness runs deep in the Russian character. With nothing to lose, it is likely the dying nation will attempt to take its enemies with it.

So it is puzzling to watch President Obama toadying to the dying husk of a nation, making obeisance to the threat of violence that Russia represents -- offering to disarm the world hegemon as a gesture of trust to the untrustworthy. One can only hope that such Dear Leaders as Obama will only occupy the world stage for a short time. Such arrogant naifs can only make the underlying chaos immeasurably worse.

Future Focus: Importance of Long Term Goals

"If we are feeling fresh, it's easy to focus on our goals and exert self-control. But when we've already tested the limits of our self-control, it's harder to keep going," the authors explain. "This is when focusing on the big picture helps us to keep our eyes on the goal and push ourselves harder. In contrast, focusing on the immediate situation only emphasizes how we've already maximized the extent of our willpower and hinders self-control." _PO

Childhood is regarded as a time for play, when a focus on immediate gratification is expected. As children approach adolescence, when more adult emotions and gratifications come into focus, children need to learn self-restraint. Adolescents must act without the developed "executive function" of an adult brain. Mature adults are expected to be able to act responsibly and transcend most of the more destructive of the urges for immediate gratification. But increasingly, more and more "adults" lack the ability to postpone or deny themselves pleasures that can hurt them in the long-term.

Human brains incorporate the potential for a wide range of behaviours, involving all time scales of planning and all levels of self-restraint. It is the pre-frontal cortex that provides humans with the ability to envision many possible futures, and to carry out complex intertwined sequences of actions that can create the most desirable future.

Executive functions are the high-level cognitive processes that facilitate new ways of behaving, and optimise one's approach to unfamiliar circumstances.....But we particularly engage such processes when, for instance, we make a plan for the future, or voluntarily switch from one activity to another, or resist temptation; in other words, whenever we do many of the things that allow us to lead independent, purposeful lives. These processes are thought to be supported, at least in part, by structures within the frontal lobes of the brain. _ScienceDirect_via_DericBounds

Several conditions (besides childhood and adolescence) can interfere with a person's ability to utilise the "future focus" of his pre-frontal brain to avoid self-destructive behaviours. Damage to the brain's frontal lobe, surgical pre-frontal lobotomy, or just a drink or two of ethanol -- all of these are well known to interfere with normal executive function and self-control. But simple fatigue, discomfort, or lack of sleep can also interfere with future focus. In addition, lack of good role models in childhood, poor childhood upraising, and a childhood educational and social environment that emphasised immediate gratification over future goals, all lead to societies such as ours, where ever larger numbers of persons, over time, lack basic future orientation and self discipline.

The obesity epidemic is but one symptom of the society-wide deficiencies of functional executive processes. The increasing tendency of voters to choose candidates on the basis of security over freedom is another example of a society rife with adults whose frontal lobes never grew up.

The cure for the problem has to be administered at an early age -- between the ages of 4 and 7 -- to be considered effective. Much of a person's character comes with his genes, but the effect and expression of genes is strongly influenced by environment -- particularly early environment. If parents, teachers, and society in general miss that window of opportunity, too bad for the future.

Their future will tend to be full of obese adults who spend beyond their means, choose childlessness in order to have more time for personal pleasures, and vote for corrupt politicians who promise them ever more security, at the expense of vestigial freedoms and independence. Such a society is easily overrun by more primitive cultures with stronger future orientation.

Gentle Nano-Milkers Safely Take Oil From Algae

Scientists at Ames Lab and Iowa State University have invented tiny "nano-milkers" that extract the oil from algae without harming the microbes. Presumably the algae live to be milked again and again, in a process that may help reduce the cost of biofuel production from agal oil.

The so-called "nanofarming" technology uses sponge-like mesoporous nanoparticles to extract oil from the algae. The process doesn't harm the algae like other methods being developed, which helps reduce both production costs and the production cycle. Once the algal oil is extracted, a separate and proven solid catalyst from Catilin will be used to produce ASTM (American Society for Testing and Materials) and EN certified biodiesel.

The potential of algae for fuel is tremendous as up to 10,000 gallons of oil may be produced on a single acre of land. The DOE estimates that if algae fuel replaced all the petroleum fuel in the United States, it would require only 15,000 square miles, which is a few thousand square miles larger than Maryland. This is less than one-seventh the area devoted to corn production in the United States in 2000. _GenNews

15,000 square miles is 1 1/2 times the area of San Bernardino County in California. In other words, since algae will grow in the desert using wastewater as a growth medium, efficient use of algal biofuels could free up virtually all farmland in the US for other purposes such as growing food.

The best oil seed crops are tropical in nature, putting the US at a disadvantage. But algae is potentially better than any oilseed -- including tropical oilseeds such as Palm and Jatropha. As soon as the technologies of efficient growth, harvest, oil separation, and fuel processing of algae are "perfected" (or made just good enough), the US will be in a position to out-produce virtually any country in the world, in terms of fuels.

Cross-posted at Al Fin Energy

General Motors and Segway? What a Rush!

Update: Brian Wang has also posted on the new Segway - GM collaboration.
When the maker of Corvette teams with the maker of Segway, it is hard to predict what will result. The video above gives you a good idea of the 2 wheel experience of driving the new electric "car."

The 300-pound vehicle runs on a lithium-ion battery that lasts up to 35 miles between rechargings, GM says. It tilts on its wheelbase, balancing on two wheels using “dynamic stabilization” technology similar to that developed for the Segway PT. (Technically the vehicle has six wheels, including two additional “landing-gear” wheels in front and two in back to catch it when it’s not moving.) The “keys” and dashboard controls for the P.U.M.A. apparently reside in an iPhone-like removable wireless device.

“We are excited to be working together to demonstrate a dramatically different approach to urban mobility,” Segway CEO Jim Norrod said in the joint announcement. “The Project P.U.M.A. prototype vehicle embodies this through the combination of advanced technologies that Segway and GM bring to the table to complete the connection between the rider, environment, and others.” _Xconomy

Future city designers may well build roadways dedicated to small electric vehicles and human powered vehicles. City districts that specialise in shops, restaurants, and entertainment would do well to make their areas friendly to small, slow vehicular traffic. They might want to provide plenty of re-charging stations as well.

Creating a New World Takes More Than Words

Image SourceIf you observe modern politicians, academics, intellectuals, and activists long enough, you will get the impression that these loud talkers believe they can change the world with their words alone. They may be right -- in terms of destructive change. But to construct a better world, we will need a better class of activist -- one who can creatively and competently design and build a better world from the nuts and bolts up.

Patri Friedman of the Seasteading Institute may be one of this new breed. He speaks today at the Cato Institute in Washington DC, and provides the lead essay in the current issue of Cato Unbound.

Folk activism broadly corrupts political movements. It leads activists to do too much talking, debating, and proselytizing, and not enough real-world action. We build coalitions of voters to attempt to influence or replace tribal political and intellectual leaders rather than changing system-wide incentives.

...If we are ever going to move beyond philosophizing on barstool and blogs to change the power structures of the world, we must accept that power equilibria have considerable inertia. We cannot shift them with hope and outrage alone — we need carefully calculated action.

...the first steps toward settling a frontier are to come up with a new idea, spread it, and build a coalition of people ready to live it — the same procedure and instinct as folk activism. The difference is the strategy of actually implementing the vision with the number of people one can reasonably enroll, rather than one which requires millions to agree before it can be put into practice.

...Seasteading is my proposal to open the oceans as a new frontier,[6] where we can build new city-states to experiment with new institutions. This dramatically lowers the barrier to entry for forming a new government, because expensive though ocean platforms are, they are still cheap compared to winning a war, an election, or a revolution. A lower barrier to entry means more small-scale experimentation. Also, the unique nature of the fluid ocean surface means that cities can be built in a modular fashion where entire buildings can be detached and floated away. This unprecedented physical mobility will give us the ability to leave a country without leaving our home, increasing competition between governments.

This plan is one of immediate action, not hope or debate. It makes use of the people we have now rather than trying to convert the masses, and avoids entrenched interests by moving to the frontier. Most importantly, it increases jurisdictional competition. It will not just create one new country, but rather an entire ecosystem of countries competing and innovating to attract citizens. Like any market, the process of trial and error will generate solutions we can’t even imagine — but that we know will be better for customers. _CatoUnbound

Read the essay in its entirety at CatoUnbound. Patri includes several excellent reference links in his sources.

It is easy to see that the frontier opportunities that remain: the oceans, the atmosphere, outer space .... will all require a greater degree of personal competence and commitment to colonise than the parts of Earth that are already settled. Persons must be highly motivated to even contemplate moving from safe and secure homes and communities to the wild hazards of the oceans or space.

Dreaming and talking are one thing -- doing is qualitatively different. People who are competent and bold enough to "do" are becoming quite rare in modern, pampered societies of psychological neotenates. The ability to act adroitly and in a timely manner is being bred and indoctrinated out of ever-smaller young generations of westerners.

Friedman's discussion of democracy's failures is extremely pertinent to the problems that free-thinking individuals face. Democracies are essentially helpless when faced with the significant problems of the present and near-future. Anyone who allows himself to become too wrapped up in the democracy without understanding that a "discontinuity" may be required, will be unable to adapt to the exigent change of phase.

Learn to do, not just talk.

H/T Seasteading Institute

New Robot Species On the Way: Update

Japanese roboticists are determined to create a new species of sentient beings on Earth, to replace humans -- at least the humans in Japan. The species prototype, the CB-2 (Child Robot w/ Biomimetic Body) has made astounding progress over the past two years. Osaka University researchers wanted a robot that could learn the same way a child learns to imitate people.

The team is trying to teach the pint-sized android to think like a baby who evaluates its mother's countless facial expressions and "clusters" them into basic categories, such as happiness and sadness.

Asada's project brings together robotics engineers, brain specialists, psychologists and other experts, and is supported by the state-funded Japan Science and Technology Agency.

...In the two years since then, he said, CB2 has taught itself how to walk with the aid of a human and can now move its body through a room quite smoothly, using 51 "muscles" driven by air pressure.

In coming decades, Asada expects science will come up with a "robo species" that has learning abilities somewhere between those of a human and other primate species such as the chimpanzee. _PO

The Japanese are losing their population to a sub-conscious anti-natalism. They will need a large number of robots to assist their rapidly aging population in performing everyday activities. If Japan is unwilling to have children, then robo-children will have to do.

More on Japan's anthropomorphic robots here, here, and here.

And don't think that robots will only be suited for menial and helper tasks. But a word of caution to this brave new robot species: don't get caught up in computer models and theoretical hypotheses and make the same mistake that human scientists are making.

...to obtain a more realistic picture of natural selection, biologists [and all scientists - AF] should pair experimental data with their statistical data whenever possible. Scientists usually do not use experimental data because such experiments can be difficult to conduct and because they are very time-consuming. _http://www.physorg.com/news157648673.html

If robot scientists and economists become as incompetent as human climate modelers and economic modelers, there is no hope for the robot politicians of the future. If robot presidents cannot maintain a firm connection with the real world, we may as well start calling those future robot pols "Robamas!"

Electing a Clueless Clown President May Have Been a Mistake

A combination of wishful thinking and abject stupidity has landed the US (and the world) in a toxic pit of hazard. It is bad enough having an inexperienced, incompetent, and ideologically blindered clown of a president in control. Unfortunately, the US Congress is led by a group of corrupt and unscrupulous quasi-criminals the likes of which has not been seen in well over a century of government corruption in the US. To top it off, everyone that Obama appoints to the executive and to the courts appears to share in these global Obama-style inadequacies and failure to lead responsibly. This will be a very rough 4 years. Even a radical rearrangement of the House of Representatives in 2010 will not be enough to reverse the destruction of Obama's first 6 months, let alone the next two years. Decades will be required to recover from this episode of failure by American voters and media.

Abandoning a Nuclear Deterrent Out of Wishful Thinking

Obama's War On Business

Obama's Recovery Plan Can Only Fail

Obama Prefers the UN to the US

Entering an Obama Dark Age

China's Support for Jihad in Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan



H/T Reverse Spins

Free Online Access to the International Conference on Climate Change: Audio, Video, PDF, PPT

The recent climate conference in NYC was a rare opportunity to hear a more scientific and objective approach to the issue of climate and climate change. The conference sponsors have made many of the talks and papers available online in video, audio, power point, and pdf formats. Below is a mere 2 1/2 hour snip out of the jam-packed two and a half day conference.

4:00 - 5:30 pm Session IV
Track 1: Climatology
Richard Keen - Volcanoes and Climate Change Since 1980: A View from the Moon (PowerPoint) (Listen to Audio)
David Douglass - The Models Still Do Not Agree with the Observations (PowerPoint) (Listen to Audio)
Nir Shaviv - New Solar-Climate Link and Implications for Our Understanding of Climate Change (Listen to Audio)
Track 2: Climatology
Anthony Watts - Weather Station Siting Issues within the USHCN Surface Station Network (Listen to Audio)
Stephen McIntyre - Do We Know that the 1990s Were the Warmest Decade of the Millennium? (PowerPoint) (Listen to Audio)
James J. O'Brien - The Truth about Climate Change in the Southeast United States (PowerPoint) (Listen to Audio) _ProceedingsICCC

Go to the link for audio, video, PDF, and more power point presentations.

Becoming better informed on this issue may save you from falling for yet another Obama / Pelosi scam -- programmed energy starvation. Whether referred to as "cap and trade", "carbon tax", or other euphemisms, it comes down to energy starvation in the name of an invented crisis. Obama zombies do not mind being suckers to their messiah. Thinking humans may feel differently.

Are You Revolutionary? Or Merely Disruptive?

Imagine that you are an emerging technology. What kind of technology are you? Are you a sustaining technology that offers incremental improvements over previous ways of doing the same thing? Are you a disruptive technology that completely overturns the power matrix of a business sector? Or are you a revolutionary technology that creates entire new sectors and causes other sectors to disintegrate? What about nanotechnology? Is nano sustaining, disruptive, or revolutionary?

The Futurist sees signs that nanotechnology is emerging from an early phase as a sustaining technology into a disruptive phase. This would be a good time for a rip-roaring disruptive technology to emerge. Consider it a form of "slash and burn" agriculture within the industrial, economic, and finance sectors. [Update 6April: Brian Wang's Next Big Future website is one of the best places to keep up on disruptive and revolutionary technologies.]

The Obama administration motto is "never let a good crisis go to waste." The same motto could be applied -- in a more constructive sense -- to free markets. Capitalism involves the constant destruction and creation / evolution of succeeding generations of businesses, technologies, and even the evolution of the means of creation / evolution / destruction. An economic downturn can be an important pivot point that allows a new technology to move quickly from "sustaining" to "disruptive" to "revolutionary." When entrenched interests are temporarily weakened by financial bottlenecks and organisational rearrangements, radically new economic, financial, and technological entities can arise as if out of nowhere.

Disruptive technologies emerge from the chaos that surrounds us and the best thing we could do is to create an environment which stimulates these technologies to come to the fore. We, including our leaders in business and society at large, have to be tolerant of chaos and build strategic capability to solve problems of the future rather than concentrating on today. _Source

It is easy to see that an Obama / fasci-leftist approach to governing does not fit well with the environment of creative disruption described above. Despite marching under the "banner of change", the Obama approach is ultra-conservative at heart. Obama's ties to old corruption, old labour, old faux environmentalism, old "limits to growth", old hyper-centralist governmental philosophies, old mega-statism etc. confines his administration inside a "3-ring circus" of deja vu clownishness. We have seen it all before, and it always fails disastrously.

This is a good time for disruptive --> revolutionary technologies. Many westerners are ready for technologies that will allow them to sidestep the arrogant presidents, the snide bureaucrats, the greedy and corrupt gatekeepers of information, goods, and services. Those who have gotten a taste of freedom are not ready to go back to the Obama / Pelosi reich's way of serfdom. We are becoming burned out on the constant over-hyping of faux catastrophe and disaster which fit too conveniently within the long-range mega-statist political goals of the reich.

So when the technologies of cornucopia begin to appear -- whether via legal channels or not -- more and more ordinary, generally law-abiding citizens will choose to adopt these disruptive and revolutionary technologies.

Such widespread adoption of revolutionary technologies by subpopulations within western countries may not save the economies of the larger socieities. In fact, adoption of revolutionary technologies may hasten these monstrous hybrid and hyper-statist economies to their doom. There will be a lot of hardship accompanying such a downfall of economies, but if a "shadow economy" can be constructed using the new technologies, the way out may grow obvious.

The Obama cult of personality revealed the central vacuity of US media, and cued the public to the untrustworthiness of its information gatekeepers. Most Americans do not care to be Obama zombies, and many of them will resist the powerful forces moving the country toward hyper-statism. This would be an excellent time for emerging technologies of either the distruptive or revolutionary sort.

Mainstream Projections of World IQ Trends

These two charts are based upon the US Census International Database 2003. The projections involve roughly half the drop in global IQ projected by Al Fin's in-house projections. Our projections indicate a 6 point IQ drop from approximately 88 to roughly 82 between now and 2050. Mainstream predictions show a 3 point IQ drop from app. 89 to app. 86. The difference lies in the assumptions made.It is impossible to accurately predict fertility rates and death rates over a time period such as 2000 to 2050 -- which is likely to be extremely tumultuous for large areas of the globe. Whether 2050 will wake up to find a global average IQ in the mid-80s or in the low-80s, the trend toward an Idiocracy is well set.The annotated IQ distribution above illustrates the IQ levels necessary to perform different necessary functions for any modern society. If you mentally shift the curve to the left by 15 points -- 1 standard deviation -- you will understand the implications of a dysgenic shift in terms of available brainpower to perform basic functions. Most third world countries are already at a near - hopeless deficit of human capital. If the brainpower of the developed world shrinks away -- as it is in the middle of doing, who will feed the overpopulated third world and provide its medicines, its machinery, its basic needs?

Global IQ Fourmilab
Gene Expression IQ and Populations
Wikipedia "Dysgenics"

When Will Algal Fuels Be Plentiful and Cheap?

The algae industry is getting there – growing, harvesting, separating and converting to useful oils is nearing completion and the ideas are proving up nicely, which should trigger competition in ideas for the process steps in controlling production costs. _NewEnergyandFuel

Lots of claims have been made over the years for algae energy efficiency: Some experts say each acre given over to algae cultivation could theoretically produce the equivalent of thousands of gallons of oil per year, compared with an estimated yield of 18 to 335 gallons of ethanol per acre for traditional biofuel crops. Others claim that algae-growing systems could be tweaked to yield as much as 100,000 gallons per acre annually. _CosmicLog

There are four important steps in the production of algal biofuels: growing the algae, harvesting the crop, separating the oil, and refining the oil to useful fuels. Each step in the process is the focus of intense study by scientists, engineers, and technologists across the developed world. We have already seen a very significant breakthrough in harvesting and drying of algae.

Technologists tend to overestimate what can be accomplished in two years and underestimate what can be accomplished in ten to twenty years. Algae as biofuel looks more like a ten to twenty year project. DARPA is betting on three to five years, VCs are betting on three to five years, the algae roadmap from DOE takes a decade. _Greentech

A better method of making fuel from algal oil has got a lot of biofuel analysts excited:

"This is the first economical way to produce biodiesel from algae oil," according to lead researcher Ben Wen, Ph.D., vice president of United Environment and Energy LLC, Horseheads, N.Y. "It costs much less than conventional processes because you would need a much smaller factory, there are no water disposal costs, and the process is considerably faster."

A key advantage of this new process, he says, is that it uses a proprietary solid catalyst developed at his company instead of liquid catalysts used by other scientists today. First, the solid catalyst can be used over and over. Second, it allows the continuously flowing production of biodiesel, compared to the method using a liquid catalyst. _WaterandWastewater

A continuous process using solid catalyst is potentially more efficient and productive, compared to batch processing. Also more scalable.

Currently, producing biodiesel from algal oil costs about $20 a gallon. But with all the attention being given each of the multiple steps in the fuel production process, some producers are projecting production costs as low as $1.50 a gallon. If costs drop that low within the next 10 years, algal biodiesel will begin to place an effective ceiling on the costs of petrol diesel. It will take time to scale up production, of course.

IQ by Nation, IQ by Race US, IQ Inherited?

Comparisons of IQ scores between races in the US suggest a 4-way clustering of scores as pictured above. Each racial subgroup appears to present a different distribution -- with significant overlap. The Black - White gap in IQ scores (PDF) has been persistent over time, and across geographical space. Richard Nisbett and James Flynn have tried to make the claim that the heritable aspect of IQ is insignificant, and that Black - White gaps in IQ scores can be eliminated using educational interventions. Neither researcher has been able to make that argument without using a bit of sleight of hand with the data. In the end, the proof is in the scores. If you claim to be able to erase the gap, you should certainly prove your claim. It would be of vast benefit to mankind if that persistent gap could be erased by something as simple as better education. The evidence over time suggests otherwise. Something more will be needed.The global IQ map above suggests that the multiple overlapping IQ distributions in the US population may simply reflect the broader global differences in IQ scores between regions. Certainly if the average Subsaharan African scored 120 on an IQ test, there would be much greater skepticism as to the direction of the Black - White gap as measured in US and Canadian populations.

Why do social scientists such as Flynn and Nisbett go to such lengths to explain away the genetic basis of intelligence, when it should be clear to any well educated person that the best hopes for raising the intelligence of everyone is to get at the basis of human intelligence? There are no reputable intelligence researchers who claim that environment is not critically important in achieving optimal intelligence for all individuals. So why do so many researchers with leftist political sympathies keep trying to claim that the genes are not important in the laying down of every person's brain capacity?

Humanity is currently stuck in a quagmire of stupidity. The crisis is made much worse by political hucksters within academia, media, and government who appear determined to prevent science from understanding the core truths of human intellectual variability. If we allow political correctness to prevent us from learning how to improve everyone's intellectual capacity, we will have probably dealt a death blow to humanity's future.

Current demographic trends suggest that the average IQ of Earth's human population is descending steadily -- from near 90 currently to barely above 80 by 2050. The difference between an average IQ of 90 and an average of 80 is huge, societally speaking. Just as the difference between an average IQ of 100 and an average IQ of 90 is brutally significant in terms of societal outcome.

The zero population growth zealots have been incredibly successful -- within high IQ populations. High IQ populations of the Earth are no longer breeding to replacement rates, although low IQ populations (see map) are more than making up for the anti-natalist outlook of their brighter fellow Terrans. Which means the planetary population is growing, but the average human IQ is dropping. Not a great prospect, all in all.

The Earth can support a far larger human population than currently exists. But not if the average human IQ continues to drop. Unless -- unless the shrinking bright fraction of humans invents super - intelligent machines, before disappearing from the scene. If super - intelligent machines are around to watch out for the dysgenic population of Earth, it really doesn't matter how dumb people become. The machines can construct robots -- call them humanoids -- to watch over the humans, so that they do not hurt themselves or each other. Perhaps the humanoids could also watch over the great apes, to prevent them from all being eaten by humans, and their habitat turned into palm oil plantations.

Seriously, the current anti-scientific atmosphere of political correctness will make it very difficult to solve some of the more pressing problems of the planet. More and more of the planet's resources are being squandered on faux crises that just happen to fit the politically correct frame. The Nisbetts of the world are always hanging about, ready to reassure the PC dogmatists that they were right all along. By doing so, they postpone the hope of finding solutions to the really big problems.

The Sun's Startling Plunge: Deep Solar Minimum Perplexes World's Solar Science

The world's premier solar scientists are confounded by their own failed predictions for cycle 23 and 24. The sun has failed to rise out of its deep minimum that lasted all of 2008 -- in fact, the sun appears to be diving even more deeply into quiet inactivity. What does the sun's deepening quiescence mean for planet Earth -- already almost a decade into a global cooling phase?

The sunspot cycle is behaving a little like the stock market. Just when you think it has hit bottom, it goes even lower.

2008 was a bear. There were no sunspots observed on 266 of the year's 366 days (73 percent). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days. Prompted by these numbers, some observers suggested that the solar cycle had hit bottom in 2008.

Maybe not. Sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower. As of March 31st, there were no sunspots on 78 of the year's 90 days (87 percent).

It adds up to one inescapable conclusion: "We're experiencing a very deep solar minimum," says solar physicist Dean Pesnell of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

"This is the quietest sun we've seen in almost a century," agrees forecaster David Hathaway of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. _SpaceDaily_via_Wattsupwiththat

Put harshly, solar scientists do not understand wtf the sun is doing at this time. Their computer models of the sun are proving less than useful -- just like economists' computer models of the economy and climate science's models of the climate. The modelers' hubris has hoisted them on their own petards.

Given the current cooling phase of global climate, what does it mean that the sun continues to go ever more quiescent over the past 36 months -- since entering the current minimum? It is too early to tell. The sun is setting record recent lows in solar wind pressure, total solar irradiance, and solar radio emissions. There is a correlation between solar activity and global climate, but there are other factors involved -- particularly the effects of ocean heat dynamics along with atmospheric thermal dynamics.

If you are one of those who fell for the Al Gore - James Hansen catastrophic warming scam, don't throw away your home heating devices just yet. Gore and Hansen have achieved notoriety, job security, and not just a little wealth through their little scam. But reality has the last word. It's not nice to fool mother nature.

Arctic Warming? From Black Soot, Not CO2

Remember the sad polar bear from Al Gores Propumentary? It was easy to see in the old bear's eyes that it knew -- IT KNEW!!! -- that it was doomed to drown in the lonely arctic seas. And the wise old bear obviously understood that it was humans that melted the ice. Humans who blasted the atmosphere with CO2 from their central air conditioning, their sports utility vehicles, their incandescent light bulbs. The bear knew.

But in real life things can be a bit different from in the propu-movies. It seems that most of the warming and melting of the arctic comes from black soot -- not CO2. Of the rest, most is due to natural climate cycles.

A pair of researchers from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space (GISS) and Columbia University have found that black carbon is responsible for 50%, or almost 1 °C of the total 1.9 °C increased Arctic warming from 1890 to 2007. The paper by Drew Shindell and Greg Faluvegi of Columbia, published in Nature Geoscience, also notes that most of the Arctic warming—1.48 °C of the 1.9 °C—occurred from 1976 to 2007.

The study is the first to quantify the Arctic’s sensitivity to black carbon emissions from various latitudes, and concludes that the Arctic responds strongly to black carbon emissions from the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, where the emissions and the forcing are greatest. _GCC

Most of this soot comes from China. Since China has built a huge new coal plant every 10 days over the past year or so, there is no sign of slowing down for Chinese soot production. CO2, on the other hand, is a negligible contributor to arctic warming. Between soot and natural weather cycles, roughly 90% of arctic warming can be explained. CO2 may be responsible for under 5% of warming.

The old bear thought he understood, but he had been misled by Al Gore's script writers. Just like millions of school children, and hundreds of thousands of politicians, journalists, and college professors. Of the rest who believe in anthropogenic global warming catastrophe -- gullible fools and zombies -- nothing more needs to be said at this time.

Economics In One Page

via SimoleonSense:

Henry Hazlitt gave us a masterful summary of sound principles in Economics in One Lesson. Could these concepts be reduced to a page?

1. Self-interest....

2. Economic growth....

3. Trade....

4. Competition:....

5. Cooperation:.....

6. Division of labor and comparative advantage.....

7. Dispersion of knowledge:....

8. Profit and loss:....

9. Opportunity cost.....

10. Price theory.....

11. Causality....

12. Uncertainty....

13. Labor economics.....

14. Government controls....

15. Money....

16. Public finance.....
_Source

Mark Skousen provides a short synopsis for each numbered point above -- worth reading his post in its entirety. The basic principles of sound economics are easily learned and relatively simple. Of course if you want to juggle massive and ever expanding economic bubbles, you will need the idiocy of a Krugman or Keynes to guide you -- all the way to the bust.

Bonus: Peter Schiff predicts depression
Marc Faber predicts massive inflation
Jim Rogers predicts massive upswing in commodities prices -- including oil

H/T SimoleonSense

Is the Singularity Near? It All Depends Upon Which Singularity You are Talking About

If you are counting on being bailed out of the "human stupidity quagmire" by a super-intelligent machine, you may have to wait a very long time. A recent New York Times Guest Column looks at the difference between brains and computers, suggesting a reason or two why Ray Kurzweil's time projections to the "singularity" may be wildly wrong.

engineers could learn a thing or two from brain strategies. For example, even the most advanced computers have difficulty telling a dog from a cat, something that can be done at a glance by a toddler — or a cat. We use emotions, the brain’s steersman, to assign value to our experiences and to future possibilities, often allowing us to evaluate potential outcomes efficiently and rapidly when information is uncertain. In general, we bring an extraordinary amount of background information to bear on seemingly simple tasks, allowing us to make inferences that are difficult for machines. _NYT

There is also the problem of power consumption. Since computer power consumption rises explosively with processing speed, a Kurzweilian 2025 "human-equivalent computer" would require a gigawatt of power to function. Imagine if every human being required the dedicated power output of a full-sized nuclear fission reactor, just to function normally!

A very different singularity -- the biosingularity -- is being approached at breakneck acceleration by bioresearchers. For example, researchers can now observe individual cells' responses to various stimuli in real time, using optical microscopy. An immense amount of data will be generated from observation of a mere cell. So don't throw away those computers. We will need them to store, correlate, and make sense of the immense quantity of data being generated.

Here are some more dam-busters:

Mitochondria play a much larger role in normal life processes than we thought.

Near real-time PCR .

Monitoring the epigenetic status of all body tissues .

Better ways to gauge gene expression .

....And many more 2nd order and higher improvements in bio-research.

But don't give up on your dreams of human-equivalent and better machine intelligence. It will happen. First we will need to better understand the "proof of concept" of intelligent machines -- our brains. Researchers working separately at Hebrew University and at Karolinska Institute, are taking different, yet promising approaches to brain modeling and simulation, hoping for breakthroughs in understanding that might lead to bigger breakthroughs, and so on ...

The Biosingularity may just hit us a decade or two before the AI Singularity. That might give us enough time to prepare -- to augment ourselves well enough to survive the emergence of intelligent machines. If we are ready for them when they come, we are more likely to arrive at an amiable understanding with each other.