Biomass to Petroleum Equivalent Gold: National Science Foundation Report

Oil has become the new gold in the modern world economy. The US National Science Foundation has discovered what Al Fin has been telling readers: there is gold in biocrude and biofuels.

1. * First, green hydrocarbon fuels are essentially the same as those currently derived from petroleum, except that they are made from biomass. Therefore, it will not be necessary to modify existing infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, engines) and hydrocarbon biorefining processes can be tied into the fuel production systems of existing petroleum refineries.
2. * Second, biomass-based hydrocarbon fuels are energy equivalent to fuels derived from petroleum. In contrast to the lower energy density of E85 flex fuel, there will be no penalty in gas mileage with biomass-based hydrocarbon fuels.
3. * Third, hydrocarbons produced from lignocellulosic biomass are immiscible in water; they self-separate, which eliminates the need for an expensive, energy-consuming distillation step.
4. * Fourth, biomass based hydrocarbon fuels are produced at high temperatures, which allows for faster conversion reactions in smaller reactors. Thus, processing units can be placed close to the biomass source or even transported on truck trailers.
5. * Fifth, the amount of water needed for processing hydrocarbon fuels from biomass can be greatly reduced, compared with the dilute sugar solutions to which enzymes are constrained. This is because organic or heterogeneous catalysts work well in concentrated water solutions or even in the absence of water if ionic liquids are used.
6. * Finally, heterogeneous catalysts are inherently recyclable. So they can be used over the course of months and even years, which significantly reduces costs compared to biological catalysts. The elimination of energy-intensive distillation, the higher reaction rates, and the much smaller process footprints can also lead to lower biofuel costs than are possible using currently available biological pathways for producing cellulosic ethanol.

[Here are the six areas of concentration in the NSF report]

1. * Selective thermal processing of lignocellulosic biomass to produce liquid fuels (bio-oils) in distributed biorefineries.
2. * Utilization of petroleum refining technology for conversion of biomass-derived oxygenates within existing petroleum refineries.
3. * Hydrocarbon production by liquid phase processing of sugars to a heretofore “sleeping giant” intermediate, hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF), followed by HMF conversion to “green” diesel and jet fuel.
4. * Process intensification for diesel and gasoline production from synthesis gas (CO and H2) by Fisher-Tropsch synthesis (FTS), which dramatically decreases the economically viable size compared to traditional FTS processes with petroleum derived feedstocks.
5. * Conceptual design of biorefining processes in conjunction with experimental studies at the beginning of research projects to allow rapid development of commercial biofuel technologies.
6. * Design of recyclable, highly active and selective heterogeneous catalysts for biofuel production using advanced nanotechnology, synthesis methods and quantum chemical calculations.___NSF(PDF)___via__Biopact

According to the NSF report, petroleum-equivalent biofuels can be made for the equivalent of US $15 a barrel!

This is energy dynamite, virtually unknown in the mass media--although well known to readers of Al Fin. While bloggers and journalists on all sides of any conceivable debate have joined together in condemning "biofuels", the real story has gone virtually untold. I recommend a close reading of the above linked documents, for anyone who wishes to be in a position to take advantage of the new "gold rush".

We can hope that now that the NSF has given its "official blessing" to this new potential economic oil boom, the media, academia, and mainstream science reporting will finally catch on to what has been happening. After all, most modern people have been psychologically neotenised and academically lobotomised by normal modern upbringing and education. We cannot expect them to be able to think for themselves.
;-)

Promising Nuclear Energy: An Important Bridge Into the Unlimited Energy Future

Nuclear fission offers an economical, low-pollution, highly efficient CHP energy path into a future where prices for oil and gas are uncertain. Nuclear power is reliable baseload power--unlike wind and photovoltaic which can fail due to weather (as in Texas). Within the next few decades, we will have reliable large-scale geothermal, large-scale utility energy storage for renewables, large-scale biofuels and synthetic fuels (Venter), and perhaps large-scale nuclear fusion. But until then, nuclear fission provides the bridge.

Two of my favourite blogger-Brians, Brian Wang, and Brian Westenhaus, have once again posted on an important topic at roughly the same point in time.

Brian Westenhaus looked at multiple nuclear options yesterday.

China ordered four Westinghouse AP 1000s, which should kick off a reduction in per plant costs, but the manufacturing capacity at Westinghouse might limit the benefit. South Africa’s Pebble Bed Modular Reactor is expected to offer a new step in safety, economics and proliferation resistance.

Today the leader must be the Westinghouse AP 1000 with several design certifications in hand now. The design offers the lowest installed cost projections of the current group at $1200 per kilowatt and a 36-month construction schedule. Those numbers would put power on the grid below US$0.035/kWh. That’s cheap power.___NewEnergyandFuel

Only two days before, Brian Wang looked at an even larger array of nuclear options:

A larger US design, the Modular Helium Reactor (MHR , formerly the GT-MHR), will be built as modules of up to 600 MWt. In its electrical application each would directly drive a gas turbine at 47% thermal efficiency, giving 280 MWe. It can also be used for hydrogen production (100,000 t/yr claimed) and other high temperature process heat applications. Half the core is replaced every 18 months. Burn-up is up to 220 GWd/t, and coolant outlet temperature is 850°C with a target of 1000°C.

The Westinghouse AP-1000 has received several design certifications. Overnight capital costs are projected at $1200 per kilowatt and modular design will reduce construction time to 36 months. The 1100 MWe AP-1000 generating costs are expected to be below US$ 3.5 cents/kWh and its has a 60 year operating life.

Another US-origin but international project which is a few years behind the AP-1000 is the International Reactor Innovative & Secure (IRIS). IRIS is a modular 335 MWe pressurised water reactor with integral steam generators and primary coolant system all within the pressure vessel.

...The Remote-Site Modular Helium Reactor (RS-MHR) of 10-25 MWe has been proposed by General Atomics. The fuel would be 20% enriched and refuelling interval would be 6-8 years.

Another full-size HTR design is Areva's Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) being put forward by Areva NP. It is based on the MHR and has also involved Fuji. Reference design is 600 MW (thermal) with prismatic block fuel like the MHR. HTRs can potentially use thorium-based fuels, such as HEU or LEU with Th, U-233 with Th, and Pu with Th.___NextBigFuture

Anyone interested in the future of nuclear power should go to both of the articles above and check out the figures and the links.

The modular helium reator (MHR) seems to offer scalable, safe ("meltdown-proof") power suitable for remote locations requiring reliable, plentiful heat and power (CHP).

Conventional, low-temperature nuclear plants operate at about 32% thermal efficiency. GT-MHR power plants can achieve thermal efficiencies of close to 50% now, and even higher efficiencies in the future.

• 50% more electrical power from the same number of fissions.

• Dramatically lower high-level radioactive waste per unit of energy – today’s reactors produce 50% more high-level waste than will the GT-MHR.

• Much less thermal discharge to the environment. Plants can use air cooling, which allows for more flexible siting options.___Source

A competing technology to such modular reactors as MHR, is the "nuclear battery" approach, which is also suitable for CHP--combined heat and power.

Here is more on small nuclear reactors.

Modular, scalable, safe, reliable nuclear reactors are suitable for many locations. More on that topic later.

Greenhouse Global Warming? Informed Skepticism Wisest Course

It has almost become something of a joke when some "global warming" conference has to be cancelled because of a snowstorm or bitterly cold weather.

But stampedes and hysteria are no joke -- and creating stampedes and hysteria has become a major activity of those hyping a global warming "crisis."

They mobilize like-minded people from a variety of occupations, call them all "scientists" and then claim that "all" the experts agree on a global warming crisis.

Their biggest argument is that there is no argument.

A whole cottage industry has sprung up among people who get grants, government agencies who get appropriations, politicians who get publicity and the perpetually indignant who get something new to be indignant about. It gives teachers something to talk about in school instead of teaching.

Those who bother to check the facts often find that not all those who are called scientists are really scientists and not all of those who are scientists are specialists in climate. But who bothers to check facts these days?__Source

There are a number of reasons, besides the graphic divergence pictured above, to suspect that the High Orthodoxy of Climate Change has taken in large numbers of opportunists and the gullible. For instance, cyclic ocean oscillations can have a huge impact on multi-decadal climate trends, but GCMs cannot accurately capture them.

... remarkably high SOI averages as seen recently and now in February also took place in the past during periods of global cooling as late in the 19th century and in the 50’s and the 70’s as the PDO experimented a negative phase. This strong La Niña event and the behavior of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation may hint the beginning of a new negative phase of the PDO, but is too early to tell and it could be another false indicator as seen in 1999 and 2000. The same could be said about global cooling. The recent trend of global temperature (read Anthony Watts's excellent tracking) can be a brief lapse in the curve of global warming or may indicate the beginning of a long term cooling trend. I entirely agree with WOOD-TV Craig James’ opinion (read more) that this can be "just a noise in the upward trend or is it the start of a downward trend in temperatures". The famous and very competent meteorologist from Grand Rapids tells "it is a little too early to be proclaiming that global warming has ended" and it sounds reasonable to me, but at the same time it is very nice to see that natural forcing and not manmade global warming is driving our planet temperature.___Source__via_NCMediaWatch

Unlike the true believers who flock to the Climate High Orthodoxy, intelligent people reserve the right to be skeptical and to keep an open mind as the data accumulates.

In fact, it is starting to look as if the Climate Orthodoxy's massive media deluge is beginning to backfire.

“Mass media efforts to raise American public concern about climate change - such as Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth and the ‘scientific consensus’ media drumbeat - ironically may be having just the opposite effect, according to a new study appearing in the scientific journal Risk Analysis.”___Source

People are naturally curious, and skeptical. When certain ideas are pounded into their heads so unrelentingly, the more intelligent ones begin to wonder about the reasons for the militant attacks on their senses. Arguments for catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) are wearing thin, as they are repeated ad nauseum without satisfactory evidential support. Such growing discontent among the brighter and more skeptical members of the public makes them more likely to consider alternative explanations for climate phenomena.

Despite much evidence relating climatic changes on Earth to solar variability, a physical mechanism responsible for this is still poorly known. A possible link connecting solar activity and climate variations is related to cosmic rays and the physical-chemical changes they produce in the atmosphere. Here we review experimental evidence and theoretical grounds for this rela tion. The cosmic ray – climate link seems to be a plausible climate driver which effectively operates on different time scales, but its exact mechanism and relative importance still remain open questions.____Source

The High Orthodoxy of Climate has the advantage of the media, political, and academic high ground. The Orthodoxy can maintain multi-billion dollar media barrages for the indefinite future. With that kind of public relations and big media firepower, you would think that the skeptics would be "drowned out" and "obliterated" by now. But that would be ignorning the "new media," the internet. The High Orthodoxy may be fighting this century's war with the last century's weapons.

Certainly with intelligent and informed climate discussion as one finds here, here, here, and here, it is unlikely that the Orthodoxy will be able to shut down debate in the foreseeable future.

H/T Tom Nelson

First Trillion Dollar Company? Synth-Bio

Yesterday we discussed trillion dollar ($Trillion) industries, and from which industry the first $Trillion company may come from. Consider the goal of Craig Venter's synth-bio research: to replace the entire petrochemical industry! According to Fortune, Venter's company would easily be a $Trillion company if it fulfills Venter's promise.

Geneticist Craig Venter disclosed his potentially world-changing "fourth-generation fuel" project at an elite Technology, Entertainment and Design conference in Monterey, California.

"We have modest goals of replacing the whole petrochemical industry and becoming a major source of energy," Venter told an audience that included global warming fighter Al Gore and Google co-founder Larry Page.

"We think we will have fourth-generation fuels in about 18 months, with CO2 as the fuel stock."

Simple organisms can be genetically re-engineered to produce vaccines or octane-based fuels as waste, according to Venter.

Biofuel alternatives to oil are third-generation. The next step is life forms that feed on CO2 and give off fuel such as methane gas as waste, according to Venter.

"We have 20 million genes which I call the design components of the future," Venter said. "We are limited here only by our imagination."___Source_via_NextEnergy

The problem with creating a $Trillion company is that there will likely be a lot of competitors trying to imitate your success. For most industries, there is only so much market share to go around.

But as I said yesterday, in the future, we are likely to see $Trillion companies the same way we see $Billion companies today. As the norm for large companies and corporations. We merely need to remove the artificial bottlenecks that cause humans to continue thinking "small".

Growing Better Designer IVF Babies?

UK researchers are trying to make having babies by IVF safer and more reliable. In the process, they may end up with healthier embryos.

The new device allows embryos created in the lab to be incubated inside a perforated silicon container inserted into a woman's own womb. After a few days, the capsule is recovered and some embryos are selected for implantation in the womb.

Embryos incubated in the lab must have their growth medium changed every few hours to provide new nutrients and get rid of waste. The new device provides a more natural environment.

The silicon capsule is about 5 millimetres long and less than a millimetre wide. Its walls are perforated with 360 holes, each around 40 microns across. After embryos have been loaded inside, the ends are sealed and the container is connected to a flexible wire that holds the device inside the uterus (see image, lower right). A thread trails through the cervix to allow it to be recovered later on.___NewScientist

In vitro fertilisation is a high-risk procedure for the embryo. Fewer than 50% of implanted embryos survive. The new technique provides the encapsulated embryos with a more natural environment, allowing embryos to develop more normally--leading to more selectively viable pregnancies.

Home Fuel Cells: Dutch Nuon Makes a Move

image source
Dutch energy and utility, Nuon, plans to install home boilers incorporating ceramic fuel cells, for its residential customers. The Dutch company expects to begin supplying this combined heat and power approach to residential customers by 2014.

The deal is contingent on Ceramic Fuel, which is dual-listed on London's Alternative Investment Market, meeting commercial requirements set by Nuon. Ceramic Fuel's legal and commercial manager, Andrew Neilsen, said it needed to improve the durability of the fuel cells, from the current two years to four, to meet Nuon's targets, but was confident this would be met and that production would begin by June 2009.

Ceramic Fuel also announced the construction of a €12.4 million factory in Heinsberg, Germany, with an initial production capacity of 10,000 units per year. The cells emit around 60% less carbon dioxide than traditional combustion generators.

Ceramic Fuel has partnerships with several utilities and power appliance manufacturers, but this is its first major sales agreement. Nuon will distribute the cell, which will be integrated into boilers to allow residential customers to generate electricity and heating in their homes, the company said.

Mr Dow said the technology would enable utilities such as Nuon to lease out the boilers — reducing installation and servicing costs for consumers — in return for fixed-price contracts. This will improve customer retention, a major bugbear for European energy providers.___Source__via_NextEnergy_

Expect to see more such creative energy options provided to residential utility customers as time goes on. Combined heat and power (CHP) is more efficient than providing the services separately. With the efficiencies of fuel cells for generating both heat and power fitted to the residential scale, significant savings for the utility are possible. If you consider the load-leveling capability of home CHP as well, utilities have a lot to gain from such an approach.

On a related note, check out this Forbes.com article looking at the state of the art in battery technology.

Early Childhood Achievement: IQ, EF, ST Memory

What are the relationships between early childhood achievement levels, and IQ, Executive Function (EF), mental speed, and Short-Term Memory? Researchers at Durham University suggest that short-term memory may be more important than IQ, in early childhood underachievers.

Working memory is the ability to hold information in your head and manipulate it mentally. You use this mental workspace when adding up two numbers spoken to you by someone else without being able to use pen and paper or a calculator. Children at school need this memory on a daily basis for a variety of tasks such as following teachers' instructions or remembering sentences they have been asked to write down.

Lead researcher Dr Tracy Alloway from Durham University's School of Education, who, with colleagues, has published widely on the subject, explains further: "Working memory is a bit like a mental jotting pad and how good this is in someone will either ease their path to learning or seriously prevent them from learning.

"From the various large-scale studies we have done, we believe the only way children with poor working memory can go onto achieving academic success is by teaching them how to learn despite their smaller capacity to store information mentally....If the teacher feels significantly concerned about a child's performance in class, he or she can then get the child to do the computerised Automated Working Memory Assessment (AWMA). The tools also suggest ways for teachers to manage the children's working memory loads which will minimise the chances of children failing to complete tasks. Recommendations include repetition of instructions, talking in simple short sentences and breaking down tasks into smaller chunks of information.

Both tools are published by Pearson Assessment. The research that provided the foundation for the AWMA was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and the British Academy.___Source

We have learned that EF can be taught--to some degree--in early childhood. If diminished short-term memory can be partially compensated, as the Durham researchers claim, then two significant limiting factors in life achievement might be amenable to amelioration. Call these interventions "crutches" if you must, but these interventions may just perform a partial "equalization" in life accomplishment that no amount of conventional governmental or educational interventions can accomplish.

The important point is that we have to look at these issues unblinkingly, without the blinders of well-intentioned political correctness. Only by seeing things as they are, can we ever be in a position to intervene in a meaningful way to the benefit of as many possible.

Jumping the Curb: Educating at Warp Speed

It is very difficult to believe in a "singularity" when government school systems are so dysfunctional and counter-productive. Jack Uldrich suggests ways to change all that--ways to jump the educational curb.

For example, innovative teachers are now using Curriki—an open source curriculum development tool—to continually modify their curriculum with the latest information.

Other cash-strapped school districts are considering following the example of Insight Schools in Oregon which educated 600 students last year with an all-digital curriculum—and they did it for a cost of $4,500 per student. The program now has a waiting list of 3000 students.

...educators in Japan are now using video technology to both engage students and help them learn better. In early studies, schools using DS Nintendo to teach writing and vocabulary have noted that 80 percent of the students using the technology have mastered junior-high-level competence in English. This compared with only 15 percent under the standard method....programs such as LanguageLab.com are exploring how virtual reality sites such as SecondLife can help students learn languages better by creating more realistic situations in which they can interact with native speakers.

...The field of education is ripe with opportunity and technology offers the educational community an exciting opportunity to do its job better and more effectively.___Source_via_futureblogger

Check out Uldrich's links to learn a bit more about the future of education. If the obstructionists in the government education departments, the teachers' unions, the school boards, and the university schools of education would step back, relinquish a bit of control, and get the *^&% out of the way(!), the future of education just might be enabled by innovative minds working in the creative marketplace of ideas.

Trillion Dollar Enterprises

Image Source

They are talking about trillion dollar companies over at exciting, brand-new community blog Future Blogger.

The 10 Most Likely $1,000,000,000,000 Industries

1. Artificial Intelligence: Any system that can outsmart the smartest businessman stands a great chance to accumulate enormous value for its owner. Ray Kurzweil has already devised an evolutionary program that does very well at picking stocks. Dick Pelletier points out that this is already a $21 billion industry . With Google, Microsoft and myriad promising start-ups converging on a viable AI, would you bet against this industry?

2. Space Mining: For the for time in history, space is about to open wide to private enterprises. The first company to figure out how to cheaply bring back large quantities of rare metals like uranium, platinum and gold will cash in. But there will be plenty of competition angling to carve up market share and the corresponding asteroids.

3. Human Genetics: Recent stem cell breakthroughs are turning the unimaginable into reality. We’re already selecting embryos for favorable characteristics. Organ cloning looks like a not-too-far-off reality. Barring complications, regulation, and an ethical backlash, the twin prospects of life extension and genetic enhancement will surely get the credits flowing.

4. Non-Human Genetics: We’ve already made glow-in-the-dark goldfish, grown ears from the backs of mice, and possibly created the first ever artificial life form. What custom creatures, designer pets and efficient new beasts of burden are just around the corner?

5. Super-Massive Solar Farms: As efficient solar cells continue to drop in price, somebody’s bound to put them to good use in a big way. The question is, will large industrial solar farms located in desolate, sunny areas pay off big, or will a decentralized model involving millions of private residents win the day. In both cases a central company that combines manufacturing and maintenance would stand to make a great deal of cashola. Of course, the Japanese national effort to install solar cells in space and then beam back the energy could trump both approaches.

6. Robotics: IRobot’s Roombas are storming the living rooms of the world. Farms and factories increasingly rely on industrial robotics. Honda’s robot can identify and navigate stairs with ease. Toyota envisions itself as a robotics rather than a car company in the future. The right robots at the right price could make their owners and manufacturers a great deal of money.

7. New-Fangled, Profitable Social Networks: MySpace, Facebook and LinkedIn have attained multi-billion dollar valuations despite the fact that they are difficult to monetize. At some point, somebody’s going to figure out how to rally together a group of people into a super-company or mini-nation, as Philip Rosedale of Second Life labels it, that can more deliberately generate enormous value. Widening bandwidth, advances in processing power, the proliferation of video capture, new content processing models, advanced advertising models, and breakthrough semantic applications are just some of the near-term advances that could significantly increase the value of social networks and their parent companies.

8. Mirror Worlds: Google, Microsoft, Yahoo and numerous others are all busily working on Earth platforms that represent major efficiencies for diverse fields like transportation, real estate, and city planning. As these digital environments get richer, more real-time and merge with social networks, related content and business applications could cause their value to skyrocket.

9. Reliable Traffic Control Networks: As robots, self-driving cars, and short-range aerial vehicles proliferate, they’re going to need a kick-ass and ultra-reliable traffic regulation system to help them , and us, co-exist. Such systems will be critical to unlocking the the economic promise of these technologies and will therefore fetch large sums from the companies, cities and nations that require it.

10. Nano-Fabrication: It’s already possible to print human tissue and carbon nanotubes. The company that produces a reasonably priced molecular assembler will enable the alchemist’s dream of: a machine that can spit out a variety of matter in different shapes and sizes.___FutureBlogger

That is a fascinating list of potential trillion dollar fields. Space mining and space-based energy are bound to hit the $Trillion mark fairly quickly, once seriously engaged. We should make the distinction between $Trillion companies, and $Trillion industries. The sheer scale of global enterprise means that banking, finance, insurance, energy,and investment industries are already over the $Trillion mark, among others.

$Trillion companies are another story. The first $Trillion company may very well be a hum-drum retailer, banking/insurance/financial conglomerate, or industrial supplier based in China or India--where growing markets are already huge and due to grow much more.

But the first "mega-$Trillion" company is likely to be the first one to break into the "open-ended revolutionary" areas of human endeavour. Out of the top ten list above, provided by Vis, "Artificial Intelligence", "Nanofabrication" and "Space Mining" (or space enterprise, including space-based energy) have the explosive potential to take off in a blinding fashion. Those are areas where "all bets are off" once they hit the payload.

Once such an industry is truly launched, it may not take long for $Trillion level companies are the norm, and $Billion level companies are seen as mere $Million level companies are seen today--small business.

Some readers may be puzzled at the contrast between the optimism of this posting, and the pessimism of the previous posts. The answer is simple. Anyone who wants to truly see the future, has to be able to contemplate multiple visions, and play them against each other.

The top ten list above contains entries that may be seen as a bit flippant at best, and naive at worst. It should not be judged too harshly, since projecting the future necessarily involves a type of "brainstorming" or "braindumping." You put the ideas out there and see what happens. Hopefully, the feedback you get will be mainly constructive.

Never Be the Same Again

Technology empowers those who master its use. The more advanced the technology, the greater the power granted to its masters. Nanotech, biotech, robotics, and advanced electronics bring the costs of widespread violence, mayhem, and terror down within the reach of a lot more people.

Professor Sharkey, who is famously known for his roles as chief judge on the TV series Robot Wars and as onscreen expert for the BBC´s TechnoGames, said: "The trouble is that we can't really put the genie back in the bottle. Once the new weapons are out there, they will be fairly easy to copy. How long is it going to be before the terrorists get in on the act?"

"With the current prices of robot construction falling dramatically and the availability of ready-made components for the amateur market, it wouldn't require a lot of skill to make autonomous robot weapons."___Source

Image Source

Biotech terror will likewise grow from the bioweapons programs of nations such as Russia, China, Iran, etc., and become more widely available as the tools of biotechnology become less expensive and more easily obtained. The same is true for chemical weapons and nanotech weapons.

Nanotechnology will be widely used by both legitimate authorities and criminal/terror groups for multiple purposes. As both stationary and mobile stealth sensor networks, nano-devices offer unprecedented information gathering capability. Molecular assemblers, once available, would allow rapid assembly of nano-weapon devices as well as larger weapons systems and devices.

Currently, westerners enjoy freedoms of movement and action unprecedented in the history of the Earth. At this time, significant violence and oppression are geographically limited to specific areas of the third world, or to specific cities or sections of cities in the advanced world. Most westerners feel free to travel anywhere from cross town to cross planet, without feeling too concerned about their personal safety.

Such a situation cannot last much longer. Within every western country, significant minorities of people nurse feelings of victimisation, along with violent revenge fantasies. The fact that such disturbed individuals have heretofore lacked the means to perpetrate their vengeance upon the majority has done nothing to dampen the intensity of these violent urges. As technologies which can easily be perverted to violent ends become more readily available, such malcontents will more often carry out their dreams of revenge.

Currently, individuals can carry weapons into the workplace, the school building, the shopping mall--and kill a handful or two of unfortunate victims. In the near future, such aggrieved individuals will be able to use more advanced technologies to cause the deaths of dozens, or hundreds of individuals--with less risk to themselves.

Consider all the computer hackers of the world (mostly Russia and China, but also in your hometown), who would do so much more damage if they only had greater reach. Consider the breakdown of government and commerce due to widespread failure of computer networks, financial networks, utility control networks, flight control networks, and so forth. Soon, the advantage may shift from the defense to the offense, with a simple breakthrough or two.

There is no need for Peak Oil, no need for Catastrophic Climate Change, no need for Islamic Nuclear Terror. Just a few advanced computing algorithms operating on some custom hardware. Or a suitcase full of stealth nano-weapons released into a water supply or skyscrapers' air supply.

The US is the world leader in scientific and technological research, but US labs are full of spies and potential spies. Secrets are difficult to keep in the US, with most other nations of the world--including putative allies of the US--trying to snatch whatever secrets they can. But as more technology and science originates within labs in China, and other emerging powers, the US and Europe have no analogous spy networks set up to warn them of potentially dangerous breakthroughs. The first hint of a problem may be the abrupt collapse of every building in NYC more than three stories tall.

The point is that informed individuals should be prepared for such a shift in reality well before it occurs. Just as Californians need to be prepared for earthquakes, Kansans and Oklahomans should be prepared for tornadoes, Alaskans should be prepared for blizzards and extreme cold, and individuals living along the Gulf of Mexico or the southern US Atlantic coast need to be prepared for hurricanes.

Civilisation rests upon the organisation of civil affairs, basic infrastructure. But nothing is easier to disrupt in the new era of tech-enabled terrorism, than basic civil infrastructure. There is no need for a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural disaster. Infrastructure breakdown can be its own disaster.

Think about it. Expect it. Count on it. And be prepared.

Sponsored by the Society for Creative Apocalyptology®

Europe, UK: Brain Drain in Science, Medicine

Europe and the UK are suffering from a growing stampede of educated professionals, scientists, and technical specialists out of the region.

Record numbers of Britons are leaving - many of them doctors, teachers and engineers - in the biggest exodus for almost 50 years.

Skilled professionals, including doctors, are leaving the UK in record numbers Over a quarter of qualified professionals who have moved abroad had health or education qualifications

There are now 3.247 million British-born people living abroad, of whom more than 1.1 million are highly-skilled university graduates, say the researchers.

More than three quarters of these professionals have settled abroad for more than 10 years, according to the study by the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

No other nation is losing so many qualified people, it points out. Britain has now lost more than one in 10 of its most skilled citizens, while overall only Mexico has had more people emigrate.

The figures, based on official records from more than 220 countries, will alarm Gordon Brown as tens of thousands of pounds of taxpayers' money is spent on educating graduates. The cost of training a junior doctor, for example, is £250,000.

The most popular destinations are English-speaking countries such as Australia, America, Canada and New Zealand and holiday areas including France and Spain.

Almost 60 per cent of those leaving take jobs, although hundreds of thousands of retired people live abroad.___Telegraph

Feedback on this issue from Telegraph readers can be found here. Many informed blog comments on the same article can be found here. North Americans may find it difficult to understand why so many Europeans are so eager to leave. Particularly leftist North Americans, who so badly want to reproduce Western Europe within the borders of North America.

Unfortunately, there are many good reasons for Europeans and Britons to leave their home countries, as the comments linked to above will demonstrate. I see two overwhelming themes dominating the reasons behind this brain drain.

• 1. Out of control immigration into Europe by uneducated, undisciplined, intolerant newcomers, leading to higher violent crime and property crime rates.
• 2. Excessive taxation and regulation of the productive classes to benefit the non-productive, quasi-parasitic classes (including many of the new immigrants).

The trend will only accelerate with time and continued immigration of violent and religiously intolerant, unassimilable newcomers. When you lose residents at the high end of education and income, and gain residents at the lowest end of education and income--in fact gaining criminals and welfare dependents--then the long-term prospects look grim. It is no wonder that European women are reproducing at only half the replacement levels.Bonus image from Noodle Food demonstrates the flow of emigrant MDs between the four countries: the UK, the US, Canada, and Australia. It is important to realise that although the flow of MDs goes both ways between each pair of countries, there is a distinct lopsidedness there. The desirability rankings, based upon the emigration:immigration ratio, go like this:

1. US
2. Canada
3. Australia
4. UK

The MDs are mostly leaving the UK, and eventually mostly ending up in the US. It would be helpful to have similar information regarding other medical professionals, scientists, teachers, engineers, IT professionals, etc. who are emigrating from the UK and Europe.

The Biomass Promise

Biomass energy promises to change many of the rules the energy world has been operating on for over a century. For rural areas, centralised production and distribution of liquid fuels and electric power by mega-energy corporations, will begin giving way to smaller, de-centralised producers and refiners--closer to the end-consumer.

Brazil and India are at the forefront of this energy revolution.

The Brazilian government has unveiled a multi-billion dollar anti-poverty program to provide jobs, electricity and infrastructures in the poorest, rural parts of the country. Bioenergy and biofuels are a key part of the plan, because the sector offers major opportunities for rural development and poverty alleviation. Biofuels create jobs for the country's vast rural populations, improve incomes and livelihoods, and help boost local access to energy. Modern energy is key to health and development, which is why rural electrification is seen as a priority.___Biopact

India has been at the forefront of the utilisation of Jatropha biodiesel village scale agriculture. The small scale approach has worked for many Indian villages, and promises to bring many more villages into the electricity and communications age. But some in the upper reaches of Indian national government, are looking at going big-time in biofuels. They are considering using GM biotech:

"Biotech can solve bio-fuel needs of the world...India, the second biggest producer of sugar, is likely to gain," James said.

Mayee said India is working towards getting technology for developing GM sugarcane with better ethanol output from Brazil.___Checkbiotech

My advice to India is to stick to small and medium scale projects. Trying to outcompete Brazil in cane ethanol is the last thing India should be trying to do. That is obsolete, last century thinking.In the US, West Virginia is a perennially impoverished state. It is also a US state looking closely at using biomass to reduce its dependence on foreign liquid fossil fuels.

The most common biomass resources are residues - agricultural wastes (corn stalks, cereal straws, sugarcane), forest waste (sawdust, pulp waste from paper mills, wood chips) and municipal solid waste (paper towels, newspaper, cardboard and yard waste). These residues make West Virginia, and other U.S. states with strong timber or agricultural industries, the perfect place to develop these homegrown fuels.___Source

Unfortunately, West Virginia's government appears to be another bureaucracy that is stuck on the idea of bio-ethanol as the be-all and end-all of bio-energy. That is the type of "hick thinking" that could keep West Virginia in the impoverished grouping.Converting bio-mass (including waste and garbage) into electricity is the smartest approach to bio-energy. One company that would be worth including in your stock portfolio is Renegy (NASDAQ: RNGY).

Budd Zuckerman, president of Genesis Select, stated, "Renegy is well positioned to address a growing demand for clean, sustainable power, and to lead the biomass to electricity segment of the renewable energy industry in North America. Its first biomass plant is scheduled to come online in the second quarter of 2008 to supply electrical power to Arizona's two leading utility companies. Renegy has also identified and begun to explore multiple additional biomass to electricity project opportunities totaling more than one gigawatt...of power output. In addition to operating a growing portfolio of renewable energy facilities that convert organic waste into electrical power, Renegy has built a world-class fuel aggregation infrastructure and a solid fuel procurement strategy to harvest, collect and transport wood waste material to power existing and future biomass plants.___Source

What is the overall energy promise of biomass? Theoretically, over 90% of world energy needs could be met by sustainable bio-energy.

Initially, the easiest promise to fulfill is at the local level. Regional crops and bio-residues can be matched to appropriate technology bioreactors and small-scale power plants to produce liquid fuels (biodiesel, bio-alcohols, biocrude), gas fuels (methanol), and electricity.

For the larger scale promise, it will take time to grow the infrastructure to rival the enormous infrastructure devoted to petroleum, coal, and gas. But it will be done, incrementally. As long as petro-fuel prices remain high (above US $70/barrel) the development of the infrastructure for bio-energy will continue, and accelerate.

Image credit to zero.no, fes.ng, and World Bank

Cuba is not a Place for Good Socialists

Neil Clark went to Havana looking for the socialist paradise he had always heard it would be. By the time he left, he was happy just to get out alive!

All the people whose views we respect had said that the Caribbean island was a progressive model whose policies on education and healthcare ought to be copied throughout the world. We went there last April desperately wanting to like the place — after all, if George W. Bush and other right-wing nasties hated Cuba so much, then the country must be on the right tracks.

But we returned home terribly disillusioned. Neither of us had been to a country which was so utterly decrepit.

...The average wage in Cuba is a pitiful $17 a month. The monthly ration which includes 283g of fish, 226g of chicken, ten eggs and 1.8kg of potatoes is barely enough for a fortnight, meaning most Cubans need to work the black market to stay alive. Things that we in Britain take totally for granted — such as toilet paper, toothpaste and pens — are luxury goods in Cuba. I’ll never forget the look of joy from an old lady when I handed her a couple of old marker pens and a coloured pencil.

For Fidel’s chums, life is somewhat easier. Despite its calls for further belt-tightening, the Cuban government last year ordered Series 1, 3 and 5 BMWs for all its ambassadors and a Series 5 model for Raúl Castro, who had taken charge of the country after his brother’s hospitalisation.

The heartbreaking consequences of Cuba’s currency apartheid were bought home to my wife and I on a Saturday afternoon visit to Havana’s Coppelia ‘Ice Cream’ park. To the right of the park gates was a long queue of Cubans who had only Cuban pesos. They have to wait on average two hours every weekend to get their weekly scoop of ice cream. On the left, there was walk-in access to tourists and the lucky locals who had convertible pesos. Fifty years on, the Cuban revolution has turned full circle in a truly Orwellian fashion. Once again the locals find themselves excluded from the best beaches in their country, as they were under Batista. And prostitution, so rife in pre-revolutionary days, is back — the jineteras being the only group of Cubans allowed to enter the new purpose-built resorts.

...The totalitarian nature of Castro’s Cuba is no right-wing myth, but a reality....After the stress of our final day in Cuba, my wife and I were hugely relieved to leave the country. And when we were safely airborne, we both reflected that if any country was in need of a revolution, it was Fidel Castro’s Cuba. ___Source

Go ahead and read the full story of Neil Clark's visit to Havana. Also consider Czech super-model Helena Houdova, who had to hide her digital memory card in her bra, to get visual evidence of Cuba's collapse out of the country. And think about the people who continue to repeat the lies about Castro's "revolution paradise", and consider what these dishonest rumour-bearers are really up to. And while you are thinking about that, think about the same brainless ideologues who mecca'd to Sandinista Nicaragua, and who continue to pilgrimage to Chavez' Venezuela.

These are the type of true believers who will happily make 90% of Earth's human population disappear, if that is what the gods of global warming and peak oil demand. It is an unhappy group of pilgrims, acolytes, disciples, and zombies. Their beliefs far outweigh anything that can be shown to their lying eyes.

The Energy Promised Land?

Daniel Yergin from Cambridge Energy Research Associates recently spoke to the US National Governors Association meeting. His message to the governors was seen as optimistic on the future of energy, a welcome relief from the usual cant of negativism. Yergin suggested that clean energies such as nuclear and hydroelectric would provide most of the alternatives to fossil fuels in the future.

Yergin explained how CERA’s analysis in Crossing the Divide uses a scenarios framework to assess the prospects among the various clean energy technologies and help define key risks and opportunities as companies seek to place their technology bets. The analysis addresses new and conventional energy technologies that can provide energy with a minimal carbon footprint and facilitate greater energy security. These technologies include biofuels, renewable power technologies, carbon capture and storage, nuclear and hydropower.___CERA

As can be seen by Al Fin's recent postings on biomass, biofuels, and CHP, we here at Al Fin are particularly optimistic about the energy future--assuming the basic political and economic climate remains intact. Climate change is more of a religion than a science, but it is a particularly dominant religion in the area of government and foundation financing, and science publication. It is an unfalsifiable religion, however, and realists treat it as such when allowed to speak honestly.

Yergin is an energy realist, like Leonardo Maugeri. Energy realists understand that oil, gas, coal, and unconventional petroleum deposits are still plentiful. New technologies will make them even more accessible and economical than at present.

But even realists like Yergin have to saturate their communications with the cloying suffocation of "climate change" rhetoric. Even years after the discrediting of Naomi Oreskes, such caution is required in order to remain within the mainstream of government and quasi-governmental money flow. As James Watson, Larry Summers and many other scientists, engineers, and other technical people have learned, some things cannot be talked about honestly in public.

H/T Energy Blog

Tissue Scaffold News

Tissue and organ replacement--regenerative medicine--is dependent on new developments in stem cells, growth factors, genetic controls, and tissue scaffolds. One approach to tissue scaffold uses nano-polymers.

David Nisbet from Monash University's Department of Materials Engineering has used existing polymer-based biodegradable fibres, 100 times smaller than a human hair, and re-engineered them to create a unique 3-D scaffold that could potentially allow stem cells to repair damaged nerves in the human body more quickly and effectively.

Mr Nisbet said a combined process of electrospinning and chemical treatment was used to customise the fibre structure, which can then be located within the body.

"The scaffold is injected into the body at the site requiring nerve regeneration. We can embed the stem cells into the scaffold outside the body or once the scaffold is implanted. The nerve cells adhere to the scaffold in the same way ivy grips and weaves through a trellis, forming a bridge in the brain or spinal cord. Over time, the scaffold breaks down and is naturally passed from the body, leaving the newly regenerated nerves intact," Mr Nisbet said.___Source

Certainly polymer based scaffolding can be generated quickly, and modified relatively easily. I will be interested to follow developments from this approach.

A special award was given recently to a Yale researcher involved in tissue scaffold development.

Erin Lavik, an assistant professor of biomedical engineering at Yale, was honored recently by the Connecticut Technology Council as one of their 2008 Women of Innovation....Lavik, who was cited for her academic innovation and leadership, focuses her research on developing new therapeutic approaches for the treatment of spinal cord injury and retinal degeneration.

She begins repair of damaged tissues using biodegradable polymers formed into three-dimensional scaffolds that mimic the structure of the tissue. After chemically modifying the scaffold surfaces, she incorporates growth factors that further create an environment for repair.

By combining neural or retinal stem cells with these environments, she is discovering the cues that promote integration and differentiation of the cells into healthy tissue. In a rodent model of spinal cord injury, the seeded scaffold promoted functional recovery allowing the rats to regain a weight-bearing stride. She also collaborated on an implantable system that can form and stabilize a functional network of fine blood vessels critical for supporting tissues in the body.___Eurekalert

Tissue scaffolds are routinely subjected to a variety of testing, in order the achieve the proper combination of properties of mechanics and permeability.

Deformable scaffolds with specific mechanical properties were made by blending flexible, biodegradable polymers.3,4 Labyrinths of pores with specific shapes and interconnectivity were formed into cube-shaped samples using injection molding and 3D printing.5 These prototypes were then cyclically distorted to varying degrees and in several ways: compressed or twisted, for instance. Micro x-ray imaging followed the movement of a contrast dye through the scaffolds as they were manipulated.___Source

Current scaffold-like products being used in the OR include Apligraf, Alloderm, among a growing list of synthetic tissue graft and scaffold products.

The "inkjet" approach to printing tissue and tissue scaffolds is also an active area of research in regenerative medicine--although not ready for the OR yet. The time is certainly coming, when most human organs and tissues will be replaceable with lab-grown stand-ins. We do not need anything fancy. Just something that works.

Return to Mitochondria

Mitochondria are the powerhouses of the cell. If the mitochondria are not healthy, the cell will not be healthy. Drug researchers are beginning to make the connection between drug candidates and mitochondrial health. This dawning awareness should lead to some startling developments in treatments for degenerative diseases such as diabetes--perhaps even for chronic fatigue syndrome. Researchers should also now be able to better avoid new drugs that cause side effects due to induced mitochondrial dysfunction.

Mootha and his team zeroed in on five basic features of mitochondria activity, looking at how a library of 2,500 chemical compounds affected mitochondrial toxic byproducts (like all “chemical factories” mitochondria produce their own toxic waste), energy levels, speed with which substances pass through these organelles, membrane voltage, and expression of key mitochondrial and nuclear genes. (Mitochondria contain their own genome, consisting of approximately 37 genes in humans.)

“It’s just like taking your car in for an engine diagnostic,” explains Mootha. “The mechanic will probe the battery, the exhaust system, the fan belt, etc., and as a result will then produce a read-out for the entire system. That’s analogous to what we’ve done.”

As a result of these investigations, Mootha and his group produced three major findings.

First, the team discovered a pathway by which the mitochondria and the cell’s nuclear genome communicate with each other. They found this by discovering that certain drugs actually broke communication between these two genomes. By reverse engineering the drugs’ toxic effects, they may be able to reconstruct normal function.

Second, the team looked at a class of the cholesterol-lowering drugs called statins. Roughly 100 million Americans take statins, and among that group, about 1 million experience muscle cramping and aches. Previous studies suggested that mitochondria were involved, but clinical evidence remained conflicting. Mootha and his colleagues found that three out of the six statins (Fluvastatin, Lovastatin, and Simvastatin) interfered with mitochondria energy levels, as did the blood-pressure drug Propranolol. When combined, the effect was worse.

“It’s likely that a fair number of patients with heart disease are on one of these three statins as well as Propranolol,” says Mootha, “Our cellular studies predict that these patients might be at a higher risk for developing the muscle cramps. Obviously, this is only a hypothesis, but now this is easily testable.”

The third and arguably most clinically relevant finding builds on a paper Mootha coauthored in 2003, a paper that demonstrated how type 2 diabetes was linked to a decrease in the expression of mitochondrial genes. A subsequent and unrelated paper showed a relationship between type 2 diabetes and an increase in mitochondrial toxic byproducts. Mootha’s group decided to query their toolkit and see if there were any drugs that affected both of these functions, drugs that could boost gene expression while reducing mitochondrial waste.

Indeed, they found six compounds that did just that, five of which were known to perturb the cell’s cytoskeleton, that is, the scaffolding that gives a cell its structure.

“Our data shows that when we disrupt the cytoskeleton of the cell, that sends a message to boost the mitochondria, turning on gene expression and dropping the toxic byproducts,” says Mootha. “The connection between the cytoskeleton and mitochondrial gene expression has never been shown before and could be very important to basic cell biology.”

Of the five drugs that did this, one, called Deoxysappanone, is found in green tea and is known to have anti-diabetic effects. Another, called Mebendazole, is used for treating intestinal worm infections. This connection gives a rationale to case reports in which diabetics treated with Mebendazole have described improvements in their glucose levels while on the drug.

The researchers intend to further investigate some of the basic biological questions that this study has raised, foremost being the relationship between the cytoskeleton and mitochondria. They also plan on using this toolkit to develop strategies for restoring normal mitochondrial function in certain metabolic and neurodegenerative conditions where it has broken down.

Nature Biotechnology, February 24, early online edition___Newswise

The connection between mitochondrial health and many other common degenerative diseases--besides diabetes--is there, waiting to be sorted out. Effective treatment for mitochondrial dysfunction is apt to be most widely applicable to a wide range of diseases which were formerly believed to be unrelated to each other.

Hitting the G Spot

Why has it been so hard to find the "G Spot?" My private research in this area led me unfailingly to the elusive location after only limited exploration. I have used my navigational skills in this area without reservation, without mercy.

Named after German gynaecologist Ernst Gräfenberg who first hypothesized its existence in 1950, the G-spot is said to be an area a couple of inches inside the vagina behind the pubic bone.

However a lack of physical evidence led some scientists to dispute that there was any such thing....Dr Jannini took ultrasounds of nine women who said they had vaginal orgasms and 11 who said they did not.

They found the tissue between the vagina and the urethra, thought to contain the G-spot, was thicker in the first group....The zone is rich in blood vessels, glands, muscle fibres and nerves. It also contain the Skene's gland, the so-called "female prostate" - which varies widely between women and which some researchers have suggested plays a role in determining whether women can experience vaginal orgasms.

Dr Jannini accepted his study was too small to help determine what proportion of women has a G-spot, and is planning larger trials to answer that question.___Telegraph

I suspect that the G Spot is the origin of PSAS--persistant sexual arousal syndrome. Although mainstream "sex experts" remain clueless about the source of this condition, a bit of logic would relate PSAS to the G Spot's brain center--and a condition analogous to "phantom limb pain" in amputees. I will not say more about this now, since I believe this clue should be sufficient for the truly interested.

There is also the matter of the mysterious "Venus Butterfly Technique." Unknown to most men and women, the VBT is an elementary sexual technique that should be in the repertoire of every connoisseur of sex. I learned the technique on my own, many years ago, to great advantage. Developing true finesse with the VBT requires an intimate knowledge of female sexual anatomy--both genital and cerebral. Search for clues about the VBT in this post.

When I think you are ready, I will tell you more.

Previously published at Al Fin, You Sexy Thing

What Is Wrong With This Picture?

The nuclear propulsion plant in the ship uses a pressurized water reactor design which has two basic systems: 1. the primary system; and, 2. the secondary system. The primary system circulates ordinary water and consists of the reactor, piping loops, pumps and steam generators. The heat produced in the reactor is transferred to the water under high pressure so it does not boil. The water is pumped through the steam generators and back into the reactor for reheating. In the steam generators, the heat from the water in the primary system is transferred to the secondary system to create steam.

The secondary system is isolated from the primary system so that the water in the two systems does not intermix. In the secondary system, the steam flows from the seam generators to drive the turbine generators, which simply supply the ship with electrictiy, and to the main propulsion turbines, which drive the propeller. After passing through the turbines, the steam is condensed back into water which is fed back to the steam generators by the feed pumps. Thus, both the primary and secondary systems are closed systems where water is recirculated and reused. There is no step in the generation of this power which requires the presence of air or oxygen. This allows the ship to operate completely independent from the earth's atmosphere for extended periods of time.___Source

The US Navy's nuclear needs are helping to drive a worldwide market in small nuclear reactor design. Small nuclear reactors are becoming more economical in operation, more versatile for fitting in various ship designs, and strategically more indispensable in naval operations.

Small and modular nuclear reactor designs are likely to find their way into more installations--both military and civilian--particularly as prices of fossil fuels remain high, and the nuclear designs become safer and more affordable. Ideal locations for small nuclear reactors would include undersea habitats, year-round arctic and antarctic outposts, relatively isolated oil-shale and tar-sands mining operations, dedicated desalination plants, etc. Small scale and modular nuclear electricity and heat fit into a wide variety of industrial and infrastructure needs.

Extra points for spotting the design mistake in the graphic.

Daring to Cross the Waters By Pedal, Sun, Beer, and Wave, 69 Year Old Ken-Ichi Horie

First he pedaled a boat from Hawaii to Okinawa. Then he crossed the Pacific in a solar-powered boat. Next he soloed the Pacific in a catamaran built of beer kegs. Now, he plans to sail from Hawaii to Japan in a novel "wave-powered" boat--in slow motion.

This month, 69-year-old Japanese sailor Ken-ichi Horie will attempt to captain the world’s most advanced wave-powered boat 4,350 miles from Hawaii to Japan. If all goes as planned, he’ll set the first Guinness world record for the longest distance traveled by a wave-powered boat and, along the way, show off the greenest nautical propulsion system since the sail.

A simple spring system enables twin fins beneath the bow of the Suntory to move up and down with the incoming waves and pull the boat forward.
At the heart of the record-setting bid is the Suntory Mermaid II, a three-ton catamaran made of recycled aluminum alloy that turns wave energy into thrust. Two fins mounted side by side beneath the bow move up and down with the incoming waves and generate dolphin-like kicks that propel the boat forward. “Waves are a negative factor for a ship—they slow it down,” says Yutaka Terao, an engineering professor at Tokai University in Japan who designed the boat’s propulsion system. “But the Suntory can transform wave energy into propulsive power regardless of where the wave comes from.”___PopSci

How efficient is the wave-powered mechanism? At first glance, I would have to say "not very." A maximum speed of 5 knots means his journey will take at least 3 months. His electronics and communication will be powered by solar panels. He will also have an emergency outboard engine on board, just in case.

I like the idea of tapping into the wave energy of the sea, to drive a boat. As a proof of concept, it is not a bad adventure. Yet, waves are a tertiary solar effect, derived from a secondary solar effect--the wind. Somehow, I cannot help but think that there is a good reason why ancient seafarers chose sail over wave power for traveling long distances by sea.

USAF Prepares for Coming War with Russia, China

The small wars the US is fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Horn of Africa, and other lesser known locations, are typically small unit wars fought against small units of loosely organised insurgent and terrorist groups. But the nature of the current hot wars fought by the US military says nothing about future conflicts with large nations of growing belligerency, such as China and Russia. The US Air Force (as well as the Army and Navy) must continue to train for conflict against battalion and division level units on land, sea, and in the air. That is where new energy weapons come in.

Boeing will support research, design, development and testing at Air Force Research Laboratory sites at Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, N.M. Specific efforts will include:

• - Working to advance gas, hybrid electric-gas and chemical laser systems, as well as technologies related to high-power fiber lasers, fiber laser pumps, non-linear optics, solid-state lasers and diode-pump lasers.
• - Coordinating, preparing and executing tests of laser effects.
• - Rapid prototyping of directed energy technology, including semiconductor lasers, thin-disk lasers, ultra-short lasers, laser-based infrared countermeasures, and mid-wave and long-wave infrared lasers.
• - Supporting the Laser Center of Excellence, a joint Department of Defense/academic program that partners the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Air Force Research Lab, Air Force Institute of Technology, University of New Mexico and New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology. The Center's efforts include gas, hybrid electric-gas and chemical laser systems.___Source

Other advanced energy weapons include advanced radio frequency and microwave weapons, particle beam technologies, high powered electromagnetic accelerator weapons being developed by the Navy.

The recent direct hit by a ship-launched missile on an errant spy satellite--in orbit--highlights the advanced level of weapons electronics incorporated into US weapons. And that technology was decades old. Imagine the type of weapons being tested in secret labs, waiting in the queue for implementation into actual weapons systems. The high technology of US weapons systems is a nightmare to Russian defense planners, and an exciting spy opportunity for the CCP PLA defense planners.

A School Bus for an Ice Age

If solar signs are being read correctly (PDF), we could very well be in for at least a little ice age, beginning in about a decade--if we are lucky. If we are unlucky, we may be in for more than just a "little" ice age. It all depends upon the brightest deity in our sky--the Sun God. As an atheo-agnostic, I do not actually believe in a Sun God, but it is quite true that humans at this stage in their development can not very well live without the Sun.

Suppose we do have a little ice age. How will we get around from place to place, on all of that ice? The red contraption pictured above may be one answer to the question. Believe it or not, it is used during colder winters as a School Bus, to ferry children living on Madeline Island to their mainland school in lovely Bayfield.

Though the trip offers a breathtaking panorama in a winter-wonderland sort of way, with this part of Lake Superior taking on the look of the grandest, most pristine ice rink the imagination can conjure, the windsled is purely utilitarian.

The 9,000-pound vehicle, propelled by its twin fans and steered by a driver much the way a regular bus would be, is heated and has padded benches with room for about 20 students. Beyond that, there are no luxuries. Loud and bumping along at 18 miles an hour, it hardly qualifies as a thrill ride...Because of the pounding it takes on the ice, the windsled is a high-maintenance machine. It was built in 2000 with a grant of half a million dollars from the federal Department of Transportation.

...The windsled was built by Arnie and Ronald Nelson, brothers who own a local construction business and who operate the sled under contract with La Pointe and the school district. It is kept light on its feet by its forward motion and the way the design disperses its four and a half tons over its 336 square feet.

The Nelsons regularly check the ice for safety. Once it freezes to a depth of greater than 11 inches, as it typically does by mid-to-late winter, the bay is deemed safe for cars and light trucks. A road is then plowed in the top layer of ice, and at that point the students are shuttled across by minivan. The ice road is open to anyone who wants to drive it. And many people do.____ImpactLab

So the ice sled is mainly used when the ice is too thick for boats but too thin for cars and trucks. I have ridden in air boats before, and driven many miles over frozen lakes. But an air-boat ice sled is a bit of a novelty for me.

I suspect that some type of hovercraft--similar to some US Navy vessels I observed in operation--would also be capable of carrying several dozen school kids across many miles of ice and snow. But honestly, when the weather gets too bad, would it not be simpler just to provide a classroom at home?

Whether we are truly headed into an extended duration ice age (lasting for decades at least) or not, it is not a bad idea to consider our options, just in case.

Remember: if the sun does decide to take it easy for a while, we will need to burn more fuel to stay warm. And since our capacity to grow biomass for electricity and fuel will be diminished during a period of weaker sun, we will have to look elsewhere for our sustaining heat and energy. Unless westerners get cracking, building new fission reactor power plants, we will no doubt have to burn more coal. A lot more coal.
The interesting thing to me about Archibald's predictions for an ice age beginning within the decade, is that he is putting his predictions boldly within the near future--where they can be refuted by reality. Contrast that boldness with the weasels at the IPCC, NASA Goddard, etc. who place their catastrophes well into the future. There is no fudging Archibald's theories. If they are wrong, we will soon know it. The CAGW orthodox tautology, on the other hand, can be used to explain virtually any climate whatsoever--short of a genuine ice age.

Promising Biofuels Pact: India and Canada

The tremendous potential of biofuels and biomass are barely understood by policy-makers and planners. But technical experts from Canada and India are collaborating to bring biofuels out of the closet.

India says Saskatchewan University will help it in advanced research into second-generation technologies for biofuels...."Agri residues such as bagasse, wheat straw, sorghum and maize straws, leaf litter and various other plant biomass, which have not been adequately utilized for energy production, provide ample opportunities for use as biofuels," said S.A. Patil, director of the Indian institute.

"We have entered into an agreement with the Saskatchewan University in Canada for four specific projects on biofuels."...He said one project is for the conversion of biomass to ethanol using different technologies such as acid hydrolysis and supercritical carbon dioxide to produce fermentable sugars, which will be converted into ethanol via fermentation. Another project is production of biodiesel from jatropha and other oils using ultrasound technology.

Patil said the other two projects are for the conversion of waste biomass into biogas and fertilizers and for biomass conversion into hydrogen through supercritical water process.___Source__via biopact

Small-scale biorefinery projects promise to bring energy production down to a scale where ordinary entrepreneurs, businesspersons, and labourers can benefit--unlike megascale projects of big oil, big coal, and big nuclear.

“Biorefineries producing not just fuel, but also chemicals and energy can be built throughout the United States, utilizing locally available cellulosic biomass feedstocks. These small-scale projects will use a wide variety of feedstocks and test many different technologies for fuel and coproducts, providing experience and data that can be transferred to full-size, commercial-scale biorefineries....“A recent BIO report, ‘Achieving Sustainable Production of Agricultural Biomass for Biorefinery Feedstock,’ showed that through increased use of no-till agriculture farmers can produce and collect crop residues in an economically and environmentally sustainable way. The report identifies available techniques for sustainable harvesting of agricultural residues – such as corn stover and cereal straws – for use as feedstocks for advance biofuel biorefineries. The report is available at http://bio.org/ind/biofuel/SustainableBiomassReport.pdf.
Source

The aspect of biomass and biofuels that seems to distress so many mega-scale energy analysts--its distributed, non-concentrated nature--is actually a good thing for small scale entrepreneurs, and small-town and small-village workers. Because biomass is so "spread out" over wide geographical areas, it lends itself far better to small-scale, local ventures. Faux environmentalists will fail to understand that feature, whereas true environmentalists who care about local economies, will seize sustainable biomass/biofuels as an important issue to promote.

Peak Oil: Meet PIP

Discovering new oil and gas deposits is expensive and time-consuming. But new exploration technologies are making it easier to find deposits that were almost impossible to find with traditional seismic technology. One of these technologies is PIP: Passive Induced Polarization.

Eldorado Exploration (Pink Sheets:EDEX) announced today that it expects its Passive Induced Polarization “PIP” technology to locate hundreds of undiscovered commercial oil and gas deposits. ‘PIP’ can be used to survey large areas and find large and small targets that traditional 3D Seismic technology used by the major oil and gas companies couldn’t find or were judged cost prohibitive. The potential commercial value of these undiscovered oil and gas reserves if successfully located and drilled is in the billions.

...The process helps eliminate geological prospects that will be dry holes. Strong signals indicate commercial potential of discovering oil and/or gas. No signal or weak readings indicate low probability for a successful find. The cost of evaluating prospects is a small fraction of 3D Seismic and takes much less time. 'PIP' technology takes days instead of months or years for 3-D Seismic.___Source

The amount of oil still in the ground, undiscovered, is no doubt far larger than all the oil that has been extracted or discovered to this time. It would be absurd to assume otherwise, given the miniscule proportion of the Earth's crust that has actually been explored--in any meaningful way.

This year is projected to be an active year for oil exploration and production startups.

The number of start-up oil and gas exploration and production companies in the U.S. is on pace to match the high volume seen in 2007, according to Oil and Gas Investor This Week, the online weekly e-letter of Hart Energy Publishing.

Oil and Gas Investor This Week recently published its annual round-up of 2007 E&P start-ups, showcasing 36 new companies.

“The past year saw no shortage of new energy companies, with high equity commitments helping to form new E&Ps and the promise of long-term benefits inspiring an explosion of MLP IPOs. Already, 2008 is looking to continue the previous year's trend,” remarked Stephen Payne, editor of Oil and Gas Investor This Week....Oil and Gas Investor This Week is the most authoritative news source on new financings in North America. Fifty times a year, the e-letter features news on company formations, moves by key industry personnel and comprehensive lists of new financings and insider trading.____Source

The huge untapped petroleum resources that remain in the ground, will be of benefit as a bridge between present non-sustainable energy methods, and the more sustainable energy that humans are just beginning to master. When humans abandon petroleum, it will not be due to peak oil, or the lack of more oil to pump. It will be due to cleaner, sustainable, less expensive fuels that are readily available.

Staircase Library

For those who are intelligent enough to understand the value of books--even in the age of electronic media--there is always the problem of where to put all your books. This is one solution, for the multi-story home. But I like the image more for the ideas it brings to mind than for its particular solution to a problem. via gadgetdna

Attention Earthlings: Submit to the First Carbon Reich -- Prepare to be Assimilated

Behind every revolution, there are groups of people waiting in the wings for the smoke to die down. Waiting to take control and run things the way they have always known things should be run. We are waiting in the wings, because we cannot afford to make our move until it is the right time.

David Shearman praises China’s recent ban on plastc shopping bags, expressing special admiration for its authoritarian quality. “The importance of the decision,” he writes, “lies in the fact that China can do it by edict and close the factories.” “Views like this reveal an ugly and ominous aspect of the political frenzy surrounding global warming,” said Dr. Keith Lockitch, a resident fellow of the Ayn Rand Institute.

“While few global-warming activists are willing--as Shearman is--to come out in favor of openly dictatorial policies, the kinds of laws and regulations that activists do call for will hand a comparably frightening degree of control over our lives to politicians and environmentalist bureaucrats. “In one form or another, every minute of our every day involves the emission of carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas claimed to be the cause of climate change. Every moment we spend running our computers, lighting our homes, powering countless laborsaving appliances, driving to work or school or anywhere else--we are using industrialscale energy to make our lives better. “But global-warming activists want our use of the fossil fuels that provide the major source of that energy to be strictly controlled by the government and severely curtailed, no matter the harm that causes.___Source

A carbon dictatorship would need to control every aspect of your life. What do you do that does not cause the release of CO2 into the atmosphere? Nothing! Every breath you take releases CO2 into the air. What if--wait for it--what if CO2 were not responsible for the lion's share of climate twists and turns, rises and falls? We must not think about that. More importantly, we must not let anyone else think about that.

What is ... interesting is the 2.2° temperature rise from 7.8° in 1696 to 10.0° in 1732. This is a 2.2° rise is 36 years. By comparison, the world has seen a 0.6° rise over the 100 years of the 20th century. That temperature rise in the early 18th century was four times as large and three times as fast as the rise in the 20th century.
The significance of this is that the world can experience very rapid temperature swings all due to natural causes. The temperature peak of 10° in 1732 wasn’t reached again until 1947.__PDFArchibaldSolarCycle2425

CO2 is indisputably a greenhouse gas. But is it the driver of the climate? Or is CO2 merely the driver of the bandwagon of the religio-political "global warming crusade", CAGW? Again, you must never think about things like that.

Anthropogenic warming is real, it is also minuscule...The effect of carbon dioxide on temperature is logarithmic and thus climate sensitivity decreases with increasing concentration. The first 20 ppm of carbon dioxide has a greater temperature effect than the next 400 ppm. The rate of annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the last 30 years has averaged 1.7 ppm. From the current level of 380 ppm, it is projected to rise to 420 ppm by 2030.

The projected 40 ppm increase reduces emission from the stratosphere to space from 279.6 watts/m2 to 279.2 watts/m2. Using the temperature response demonstrated by Idso (1998) of 0.1°C per watt/m2, this difference of 0.4 watts/m2 equates to an increase in atmospheric temperature of 0.04°C.

Increasing the carbon dioxide content by a further 200 ppm to 620 ppm, projected by 2150, results in a further 0.16°C increase in atmospheric temperature.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased the temperature of the atmosphere by 0.1°.__PDFArchibald

If CO2 is not driving the climate, what is? Unfortunately, we do not have time to consider that. No, we must hurry to do something, anything, to halt the rise of CO2 emissions coming from industrial countries. (we can ignore the third world, until we get the first world under control)

We must stop the "climate crimes" by oil companies such as BP--which recently moved into tar sands development And we must transfer hundreds of billions of dollars of ill-gotten capitalist gains from the pockets of capitalists into our own pockets, for safe-keeping. Perhaps we will need to bring out the guillotine--no one knows yet.

Certainly we must weed out the professional heretics--fire them, deny them tenure, destroy their reputations, deny them funding, deny them publication. We must then move against the amateur heretics, who are such a thorn in our side.

The point is, we are the only ones who know what must be done, and have the will to do it. We deserve to be in power.

Image and links H/T Tom Nelson

Space Tugs and Ferries--Getting Real About Space

Up until now, human space launches have been faltering baby-steps. There has been no significant effort to develop an ongoing, versatile space-based infrastructure. So far, it is almost as if humans had no intention of staying in space. That needs to change.

Over at Selenium Boondocks, a recent posting takes an interesting look at Space Tugs and Space Ferries--what they are and what they would do.

In a nutshell, tugs allow you to take all of the most complicated parts of getting people, propellants, and provisions to a station, and offloads it to either the launch vehicle, or to a reusable vehicle that always stays in orbit, doesn't have to reenter, etc. Why lug all of that hardware with you each and every time if you can leave it at the destination. Why require each and every company that wants to launch stuff to a station to then also have to come up with their own prox-ops solution? Solve the problem once, and then you don't have to keep solving it again.

...By having a ferry that operates between LEO and GEO, that has refueling capabilities in LEO, you can launch the largest commercial and government exo-LEO missions without requiring anything bigger than a bottom-of-the-line EELV. In fact, you can even launch manned lunar missions using launchers no bigger than an Atlas V 401 or a Falcon IX...Ferries can be based around either chemical or solar electric propulsion systems. Some cargoes don't mind a slow spiral out through the van Allen belts, and thus can be shipped by the more mass efficient (and hopefully therefore more cost efficient) solar-electric "slow boat". Other cargoes (people, cryogens, and possibly GEO satellites) can be shipped via a much faster chemical ferry. ___SB

If you understand the issues involved--why it is so important to develop these capacities if humans expect to establish a permanent presence in space--you will want to read the entire article, along with the comments.

Imagine if every airliner flying to a city had to taxi down city streets to deliver each passenger to his individual hotel? No, you say, there are taxis and rental cars for that purpose. Exactly! Each vehicle is specialised for particular purposes.

That is what is needed in space. Tugs to receive and deliver cargo and passenger vehicles, and place them reliably into docking. Ferries to transfer satellites to higher orbits, or to transfer passengers and cargo to habitats and stations in other orbits.

Until this minimal infrastructure is developed, one can not truly say that humans are serious about space.

miRNAs and Brain Neurodegenerative Disease

Parkinson's, Alzheimer's--neurodegenerative diseases that cause enormous disability and suffering. New findings in micro-RNA (miRNA) may provide researchers with more therapeutic targets, to combat the neurodegeneration caused by these and other brain diseases.

Micro-RNAs are a hot topic in almost every field of molecular biology right now; we’ve discussed them before here in the context of buffering age-related changes in gene expression. These novel regulatory molecules may also play a critical role in neurodegenerative disease, as described in this conference proceedings review by Pete Nelson and co-workers:

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) in Neurodegenerative Diseases

Aging-related neurodegenerative diseases (NDs) are the culmination of many different genetic and environmental influences. Prior studies have shown that RNAs are pathologically altered during the inexorable course of some NDs. Recent evidence suggests that microRNAs (miRNAs) may be a contributing factor in neurodegeneration. miRNAs are brain-enriched, small (22 nucleotides) non-coding RNAs that participate in mRNA translational regulation. Although discovered in the framework of worm development, miRNAs are now appreciated to play a dynamic role in many mammalian brain-related biochemical pathways, including neuroplasticity and stress responses. Research about miRNAs in the context of neurodegeneration is accumulating rapidly, and the goal of this review is to provide perspective for these new data that may be helpful to specialists in either field. An overview is provided about the normal functions for miRNAs, including some of the newer concepts related to the human brain. Recently published studies pertaining to the roles of miRNAs in NDs––including Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease and triplet repeat disorders—are described.___Ouroborus

Noncoding RNAs perform many epigenetic and regulatory functions. This relatively new field within genetics is providing a lot of discoveries and new potential therapeutic options.

Update: This recent SEED article by Philip Ball reveals even more complexities in RNA's influence on heredity. Worth a look.

The World Genome: By SNP and by CNV

The image above provides a graphic display of various genomic characteristics of certain ethnic groupings of Earth. A recent Nature letter looked at ethnic genomes by SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) and CNV (copy number variant). The authors found some fascinating genomic distinctions not previously thought to exist.

A new letter in Nature combines data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and copy number variations (CNVs) across 29 human populations. STRUCTURE results from the paper are below based on SNPs, haplotypes, and CNVs. Note in particular the Green cluster, which was not seen in some previous studies that did not include Oceanian populations, the differentiation between African farmers and hunter-gatherers, and the differentiation between northern and southern Mongoloids evident in the bottom row___Dienekes Anthropology

This is a fascinating beginning to a fuller understanding of who we are, and how we came to be this way. There is a reason why some population groupings are more prosperous, and peaceful than others. Part of the answer lies in the genes. Not just the genetic sequences, but all of the variations within the genome including CNVs and epigenetic mechanisms that vary. It is time to do the work.

The point is, you cannot possibly know until you look. Leftist multicultural obscurantism--denial of cultural and genetic differences--is the largest threat to science at this time. Much larger than creationism, intelligent design, global warming heresies, big oil and coal, George W Bush, or any other of the usual boogey-man "threats to science." Why? Because the leftist multicultural saboteurs of science are already on the inside. They are destroying science from the inside out--which is always a greater threat than the threat from outsiders.

The brains of men and women are different. That is reasonable, given the significant physical differences between men and women. We also see significant physical differences between different ethnicities. Is it possible that there exist subtler differences that affect brain function? Can cultural differences be caused, at least partially, by heritable brain differences?

Biomass-->Pyrolysis-->Biocrude

Forget about burning food. Any kind of biomass--including garbage--can produce biocrude. Biocrude is similar to crude oil. It can be refined to the desired hydrocarbon product.

Pyrolysis is a process in which organic materials - any type of biomass - are heated in absence of air in a reactor (schematic, click to enlarge). Under these conditions, organic vapours, pyrolysis gases and charcoal are produced. Depending on the residence time and the temperature to which the biomass is exposed, varying amounts of these products are obtained.... Under fast pyrolysis (temperatures of 450 - 600 °C), the vapours are condensed to bio-oil and typically, 70-75 wt.% of the feedstock is converted into this oil (also known as 'biocrude' or 'pyrolysis oil').__Biopact

Biocrude projects are proceeding at full speed in Europe, Australia, and North America. The main problem remaining to be solved, is the wide dispersal of biomass. It costs energy to collect and concentrate biomass--to bring it to the central pyrolysis station.

Fortunately, pyrolysis is a scalable process. The pyrolysis infrastructure can be built closer to the source of biomass, and the resulting oil can be transported in bulk via pipeline, river barge, or rail, to refineries.

Currently, political obstructionists have prevented construction of refineries. The bottleneck in hydrocarbon refining keeps costs high to end consumers. We can hope that the obstructionists who prevent energy refining and new energy exploration, will relent in the case of biomass to biocrude to bio-refinery.

InnovaRig: Versatile Deep Drill Rig

The InnovaRig is an advanced deep drilling rig designed for scientific and geothermal exploratory purposes. It can drill to 5000 metres, and requires a minimal drilling crew--compared to oil exploration rigs capable of similar depths. Now, geothermal exploration and other deep earth drilling projects, will no longer need to compete with oil exploration for drilling rigs.

The need for a modern drill rig such as the InnovaRig became apparent in the many research drillings worldwide in which the GFZ participates and is, also, in many cases Principal Investigator. Drilling implies physical strain for the personnel and very often dangerous, hazardous work. Environmental restrictions and - in the case of industrial rigs – often insufficient tools for the scientific investigation of the drilled rocks, pose further problems. InnovaRig thinks conceptionally: hazardous work has been minimised or even completely abolished, due to optimised noise protection-measures, compliance with the exhaust-emission norms and the avoidance of contamination, the rig leaves behind only very minor ecological footprints and it functions cheaper than conventional drill rigs.___Eurekalert

More here and here (PDF)

There are Now Towns in Northern England Where Cousin Marriage is the Norm

It seems that author Mark Steyn is an alarmist for pointing out a few things that are happening in Europe. Apparently, in Europe, telling an uncomfortable truth makes one an alarmist.

My book's thesis — that most of the Western world is on course to become at least semi-Islamic in its political and cultural disposition within a very short time — is "alarmist."...The question then arises: fair enough, guys, what would it take to alarm you?

...Last week, the British and Ontario governments confirmed within days of each other that thousands of polygamous men in their jurisdictions receive welfare payments for each of their wives.

...What does it mean when 57 per cent of Pakistani Britons are married to first cousins and 70 per cent are married to relatives? At the very least, it tells you that this community is strongly resistant to traditional immigrant assimilation patterns.

...Is sharia, polygamy, routine first-cousin marriage in the interests of Canada or Britain or Europe? Oh, dear, even to raise the subject is to tiptoe into all kinds of uncomfortable terrain for the multicultural mindset.___Macleans

What about honour killings, stoning adulterers, killing of apostates, genital mutilation, and the general, run-of-the-mill religious bigotry, hatred, and failure to assimilate?

Without pressure to conform to the norms of a larger society, immigrant muslims will form their own internal power structures--a state within a state. It is inevitable, given the totalitarian nature of Islamic life. Religion, family, government--all wrapped into one set of rules, Sharia. If the secular western government is too reticent to insist upon compliance with civil and criminal law, Muslim law will fill the void.

While leftist multiculturalism claims to view all cultures as at least as good as western culture, the only way for multiculturalists to tolerate the misogyny, homophobic violence, and religious intolerance of Islam, is for them to pretend it does not exist. So they do--pretend. And pretend, and pretend, and pretend. But to what end?

Here is a simple multi-cultural math question. One million male muslim immigrants each marry four female first cousins, from the old country. Each wife has four children, and collects her own welfare check for her household. If the fertility rate for indigenous English girls is close to 1 child per woman, how long before everyone in England is muslim, and living on welfare checks?

Research shows that when third world people move to the first world, the fertility rate of at least the first generation of immigrants goes up. In the case of muslims in Europe, every generation is the first generation, since muslim males send back to the old country for girl cousins to marry.

Top-Secret Ethanol Pipeline Compromised!

For some time we at Al Fin have been hearing disturbing news coming from America's heartland. Members of a shadowy organisation that calls itself "AV" appear to be stealing strategic fuel from a secret and vitally important energy pipeline. The loss of these strategic pipeline reserves places America in grave danger from the dreaded "Peak Energy!"

We are now allowed to reveal for the first time, that agents of Al Fin have infiltrated the mysterious and sinister group known as "AV," to bring you this exclusive report. Further, at great risk to himself and his operatives, Al Fin himself has obtained an early copy of the top-secret pipeline route--a map that was supposed to have been destroyed, and all copies burned!

Here is a partially burned transcript of a conversation between Al Fin and the leader of "AV", occurring inside an abandoned auto parts factory outside of Akron:

Al Fin: You sure have a lot of booze around here! Where do you get it?

AV: [suspiciously] Why youse wanna know?

Al Fin: I thought I might buy some from you. Interested?

AV: [greedily] Sure. It's 50 cents a gallon and don't try to Jew me down neither!

Al Fin: I wouldn't think of it, old boy. By the way, what does AV stand for? Is it some kind of terrorist gang?

AV: AV stands for "alcoholics victorious" get it? Not that stupid AA, alcoholics anonymous. Alcoholics victorious! We ain't no terrorist gang. We's a agnostico-environmental orgn'sation.

Al Fin: Agnostico-environmental organisation? What does that mean, anyway?

AV: It means we's agnostic bouts the environment.

Al Fin: You mean, you don't know if the environment actually exists?

AV: Thassright! We never go outside if we can hep it. So how would we know whas out there?

[editor's note: observe that AV's speech appears to become more incoherent as the conversation goes on. We suspect that he was continuing to drink the pure ethanol throughout the conversation]

Al Fin: Is it possible that your group could be responsible for theft of ethanol from the top-secret ethanol pipeline?

AV: [frowning] If'so to'secret, how's you hear bout?

At this point in the narrative, severe charring of the transcript makes it completely illegible.

Piecing together other bits of evidence from the Al Fin team report, the AV group had managed to track the pipeline's secret route by using pocket mass spectrometers--which detected trace levels of chemical congeners unique to fuel-grade bio-ethanol. By installing secret taps into the strategic ethanol pipeline, AV had drained the nation's energy reserves so low, that a crisis is looming.

At this point in time, Al Fin is missing--unaccounted for. Surviving team members report that Al Fin insisted on going back into AV headquarters alone, to get the rest of the evidence. The brave team leader insisted that other team members return to home base, and report.

Naturally, we have passed along the information we have received, to President Obama's new Department of Homeland Security Chief. We can only hope that Al Fin will escape from AV headquarters before DHS performs its inevitable raid. One tries not to think about it...all that alcohol...echoes of Waco...

Bad Science: PhysOrg.Com Caught Serving "Science" Propaganda? You Decide

Propaganda is as old as mankind. People who have power, or who wish to be in power, have everything to gain by painting a reality that causes the masses to think and behave a certain way. Most of us know that mainstream news--as reported in newspapers, magazines, radio, and television--is often heavily slanted toward a particular point of view. A lot of "news" is, quite frankly, propaganda. We have come to expect this bias. But many of us let down our guard when reading "science news."

For example, many people go to websites such as Physorg.com fully expecting to read objective science news articles and news releases. I have quoted many articles from Physorg myself, and have found the site to provide much useful material, in the past. Imagine my surprise when clicking on a Physorg.com article entitled "Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change", to find a classic propaganda piece, instead of a scientific report substantiating the title.

When skeptical as to the veracity of a report, first check the sourcing. You may think that Physorg.com creates its own stories, but no--like most such news reporting websites, Physorg gets most stories from other sources. In this case, the source is listed as "Harvard University." But Harvard University is not a source, it is an institution. You cannot click on "Harvard University" to find the original release. You may as well list the source as "anonymous," except--the report purportedly deals with the AAAS Annual Meeting, "held in Boston." But there are no links to the particular presentations quoted by the article. (on my own I found this Eurekalert link to the AAAS Annual Meeting News--but so far have not found any reports that match the Physorg article)

Looking further in the article, astrophysicist Sallie Baliunas is quoted, apparently recanting her global warming heresy.

“Did the sun cause what we see on the ground?” she asked. “It doesn’t seem so. But there is some fuzziness in the data, which suggests it could go either way. The answer isn’t known at this time.”

The quote appears incomplete, and is not consistent with Baliunas' overall work, up to the present time. Clearly, the article is leaving something out--quoting Baliunas out of context. But where is the context, the rest of the quote? Where is the sourcing?

The article includes cryptic "quote snips" from David Hathaway:

“Our star, the sun, is a variable star,” said David H. Hathaway, a sunspot specialist from NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Hunstville, Alabama. “It varies by about one-tenth of one percent” in energy output. But “there are suggestions the sun" varies "more than that, because we see it has gone through some periods, such as the Maunder minimum.” During the Maunder minimum, which lasted from 1645 to 1715 and is also known as the Little Ice Age, there was an absence or near-absence of sunpots and northern Europe experienced especially cold winters.

...and a very short snip from Baliunas:

There is considerable variability in the 60 sunlike stars she has examined, she said, depending on how fast each rotates and other factors.Unfortunately, she added, “there is no model to explain [solar surface activity] on the century-to-millennium time scale,” and long-term changes in solar output need further study.

Finally, comes the extended summary, tying everything together. Since the article is purportedly about the sun's effect--or lack of effect--on climate, we would expect a solar expert to be allowed to sum up the evidence, to put the final "spin" on the topic. But what "solar expert" did Physorg.com choose to put in the driver's seat?

Caspar Amman, a former student of "Hockey Stick" Michael Mann. Amman is not a solar scientist or astrophysicist. Rather he is a climate modeler with a homepage at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. A climate modeler on the "Hockey Team." Someone with a clear historical link to the discredited Hockey Stick view of climate made so famous by Al Gore. Why would Amman be given the final word on the topic of solar effects on climate--not his area of expertise?

One might wonder. But Amman did not waste the opportunity, not at all.

global warming is occurring at an incredibly rapid rate, faster than any previous episodes of climate change known from the paleo-climate data. Ammann did add, however, that there is reason to hope that the most dire consequences can be avoided. Although it’s clearly too late to avoid the heating of the earth’s atmosphere, “we can substantially cut [it]” by severely reducing the amounts of carbon dioxide going into the air. “It is absolutely achievable,” he said — if by mid-century societies can generate enough will to make the necessary changes.

Amman--a consummate team player--delivers for the team once again.

Where did this article come from? It appears to make the claim that it is based on a presentation (or multiple presentations) at a symposium as part of this year's AAAS meetings in Boston. But how could one tell what it is based on, from the article itself? One cannot. This is sloppy reporting at best, and a transparent attempt at climate propaganda at worst. Which is it? You decide.



Al Gore understood propaganda when he was US Vice President. That is why when he controlled billions of dollars in research fund allocation, he shunted the money to organisations such as NASA Goddard, full of people he could trust to make "the right kind of news."

There have always been plenty of environmental religionists in academia, but Al Gore is the one who gave them billions of dollars to play with, while excluding all “contrarians” from his largesse. As vice president over the eight years when global warming hysteria first made climate science a funding priority, Al Gore allocated every dime. This was his portfolio as President Clinton's climate science czar. With over ten billion dollars to spend (a huge amount for academia), Al Gore created the current climate science industry almost from scratch, transforming what had been a small backwater discipline into a juggernaut of his own framing.

The funding amounts have since multiplied several times, all of it channeled through the religious ideologues that Al Gore originally empowered, men like NASA scientists James Hansen and Gavin Schmidt, two of the most self-conscious frauds in the history of science, all for what they truly believe to be the best of all possible reasons: saving the environment from human economic activity.___ErrorTheory_via_TomNelson

Professional risk analysts--insurance actuaries--are giving climate change short shrift (via TomNelson) on a relative scale of risks. Is it possible that actuaries are looking at the issue a bit more clearly than the climate modelers--who have to paint a grim picture to keep the grants coming? An interesting thought.

I am saving the best part for last--but you will have to do the work. Contrast this PDF document by David Archibald, looking at solar cycles 24 and 25 in relation to near future climate, with the sloppy Physorg.com report above. Where can you find the "meat" as opposed to the "fluff?"

Solar effects on climate cannot be dismissed so easily as Physorg.com appears to believe. The debate is just beginning.

Biofuels: It's the Economy, Stupid!

The long-term prospects of biofuels rest in the economics of production. If biofuels can be produced and marketed economically, they will gradually replace petroleum as fuels for transportation, aviation, heavy equipment, agricultural machines, and freight hauling. I expect biofuels to be the primary fuel for vehicular fuel cells as well. So how do you make biofuels more competitive, economically? Step by step.

AE Biofuels,Inc. (OTCBB: AEBF) is working on:

Eliminating the initial cooking and cooling process significantly reduces energy and water consumption. In addition, the cellulose enzyme technology has proven successful in converting multiple lignocellulosic feedstocks, such switch grass, wheat grass, corn, and corn stover, the remaining corn “stalks” that are not currently being utilized as biomass, to ethanol. The multi-activity enzymes are expected to reduce capital and operating expenditures for cellulose ethanol production.__AEBF_via_Businesswire

Reducing the costs of concentrating the alcohol would help the economics of production significantly. Mitsui, GreenField Ethanol/Vaperma, and others are trying to develop membrane separation techniques (see graphic above) that would allow them to separate ethanol from water less expensively than using distillation for the entire separation.

Human ingenuity generally approaches such problems as this in a reductionist manner. Each step is looked at separately, in an attempt to achieve the same results in a simpler, cheaper, more productive manner. A useful technique is then to "step back" mentally, in increments, to look at groupings of process steps, deciding whether some steps might be streamlined or eliminated altogether.

I suspect that such process innovation might be amenable to "savant thinking", at least in part. Humans have two cerebral hemispheres, which function somewhat differently--just as humans have two sexes, male and female, which function differently. Both hemispheres (and both sexes) are vitally important in achieving optimal solutions. With the coming of electromagnetic autism, we may find ingenious ways of turning exceptional creativity on and off with a switch.

H/T No1203:Biofuels

Savantic Latency: Mind the Current

Are you a latent savant, with hidden mental powers waiting only for the proper trigger, to reveal themselves? Perhaps. A recent posting by commenter Mike led to this provocative NYT article from 2003 about the work of esteemed neuroscientist Allan W. Snyder:

If Snyder's suspicions are correct, in fact, and savants have not more brainpower than the rest of us, but less, then it's even possible that everybody starts out life as a savant. Look, for example, at the ease with which children master complex languages -- a mysterious skill that seems to shut off automatically around the age of 12. ''What we're doing is counterintuitive,'' Snyder tells me. ''We're saying that all these genius skills are easy, they're natural. Our brain does them naturally. Like walking. Do you know how difficult walking is? It's much more difficult than drawing!''

...Snyder's theories are bolstered by the documented cases in which sudden brain damage has produced savant abilities almost overnight. He cites the case of Orlando Serrell, a 10-year-old street kid who was hit on the head and immediately began doing calendrical calculations of baffling complexity. Snyder argues that we all have Serrell's powers. ''We remember virtually everything, but we recall very little,'' Snyder explains. ''Now isn't that strange? Everything is in there'' -- he taps the side of his head. ''Buried deep in all our brains are phenomenal abilities, which we lose for some reason as we develop into 'normal' conceptual creatures. But what if we could reawaken them?''____Source

Snyder, who has been publishing in the scientific literature for several decades, currently experiments with transcranial electromagnetic stimulation to bring out latent abilities mental.

The researchers think that by temporarily inhibiting activity in the left anterior temporal cortex, the TMS allowed the brain’s number estimator to act on raw sensory data, without it having already been automatically grouped together into patterns or shapes. In other words, they believe it caused the 'normal' brain to function more like an autistic 'savant' brain.___Source

Some forms of electromagnetic stimulation enhance the function of the stimulated portion of brain, and other forms of EMS suppress the function of the stimulated brain. Such a tool can function in an analogous way to a reversible "knock-out gene" in genetics research. By removing particular "instruments from the brain's symphony", we can glimpse the workings of a differently arranged brain.

It is not really a matter of whether savants have more or less brainpower than the rest of us. It is a matter of how the brain is being used. As people gain experience in life, they use forms of "mental shorthand" to speed repetitive mental functions. We do not actually read every word, but rather clump words and paragraphs into "essential meanings" to save time as we read. It seems that by taking shortcuts, we gain some time, and possibly lose something else.

"Modern" education is geared to shortcut thinking. The savants are "weeded out" by our educational system, because they make the teacher's work harder. Teachers have forgotten how to see the world in "raw" terms, without the learned shortcuts. The savants do not fit, so we toss them in with the refuse, or drug the savant out of them.

Yet, never have we needed the savants more than today, when modern societies find themselves in traps of their own making, but without any understanding of what is needed to open the cage door. Political systems are tightening the trap, and every proposed and attempted solution promises to make the situation worse. Political "change" is merely shorthand for a re-dressing of more-of-the-same. Savants have the ability to see elements of a problem that are hiding in plain sight.

An autistic savant is different from a genius savant, or prodigy. A normal person with savant-latency is a different creature still. Presumably, after the brain stimulation is turned off, the normal-cum-savant reverts back to normalcy. Autistic savants and prodigies typically retain their gifts for much longer periods of time, although not always permanently. Most of us probably wish to be polymaths, which may be possible eventually, with more advanced brain stimulation, or brain machine interfaces.

Here is more about the polymath.

More on Snyder's work here.

BTW, check out the new blog Brain Stimulant, if you are interested in brain electromagnetic stimulation.

Enviro-Paradise vs. Industrial Wasteland

In one simple satellite photo, one can see a stark contrast between energy-wasting South Korea, and pristine, energy-saving North Korea. Under capitalism, South Korea has clearly become an industrial wasteland--profligate in its unsparing energy extravagance. North Korea under communism has grown into a veritable enviro-paradise to a degree virtually unknown anywhere else in the world.

A better argument against capitalism and in favour of communism could not be constructed in words. Well, actually Al Fin could construct a better argument in words, but he is far too humble to admit it.

So take a moment to comtemplate if all the world were like North Korea--what a wonderful world it would be.

Image H/T WattsUpwithThat via NCMediaWatch

Math and Sex: Aptitude vs. Discrimination

There are far more men who are talented at math, than females who are talented at math. Researchers Camilla Benbow, David Geary, and others have established that claim quite well.

In the 1980s one of us (Benbow), along with the late psychologist Julian C. Stanley, who founded this study at the John Hopkins University Center for Talented Youth, observed sex differences in mathematical reasoning ability among tens of thousands of intellectually talented 12- to 14-year-olds who had taken the SAT several years before the typical age.

Among this elite group, no significant differences were found on the verbal part of the SAT, but the math part revealed sex differences favoring boys. There were twice as many boys as girls with math scores of 500 or higher (out of a possible score of 800), four times as many boys with scores of at least 600, and 13 times as many boys with scores of at least 700 (putting these test takers in the top 0.01 percent of 12- to 14-year-olds nationwide).

...The ratio of boys to girls, first observed at 13 to 1 in the 1980s, has been dropping steadily and is now only about 3 to 1. During the same period the number of women in a few other scientific fields has surged. In the U.S., women now make up half of new medical school graduates and 75 percent of recent veterinary school graduates....This period coincides with a trend of special programs and mentoring to encourage girls to take higher-level math and science courses. And direct evidence exists that specifically targeted training could boost female performance even further. A special course created by engineering professor Sheryl A. Sorby and mathematics education specialist Beverly J. Baartmans at Michigan Technological University, for example, targeted improvement in visuospatial skills.

...Decades of data from studies of different animal species show that hormones can play a role in determining the cognitive abilities that males and females develop. For example, during typical prenatal male development, high levels of hormones such as testosterone masculinize the developing brain and result in male-typical behaviors and probably male patterns of cognitive performance...More recent studies have shown that hormones continue to play a role in cognitive development throughout life. Such changes have been observed in individuals receiving large quantities of male or female hormones in preparation for sex-change surgery. Researchers found, for example, that people undergoing female-to-male hormone treatment show “masculine” changes in their cognitive patterns: improvements in visuospatial processing and decrements in verbal skills.

The human brain is shaped by these hormones, as well as by our genetic inheritance and a lifetime of experiences, so it should not be surprising that numerous differences appear in female and male brains. In general, females have a higher percentage of gray matter brain tissue, areas with closely packed neurons and fast blood flow, whereas males have a higher volume of connecting white matter tissue, nerve fibers that are insulated by a white fatty protein called myelin. Furthermore, men tend to have a higher percentage of gray matter in the left hemisphere, whereas no such asymmetries are significant in females.

Imaging studies assessing brain function support the notion that females perform better on tasks such as language processing that call on more symmetric activation of brain hemispheres, whereas males excel in tasks requiring activation of the visual cortex. Even when men and women perform the same task equally well, studies suggest they sometimes use different parts of their brain to accomplish it.__SciAm_Benbow,Geary, etal

The article above mentioned an improvement in the number of women scoring above 700 on the SAT corresponding to special (and expensive) outreaches to women, to help them improve math and visuo-spatial skills. Other research has shown that when both men and women are provided with the supplemental training, that the gender gap remains unchanged--even widens. Thus, it appears that it may be important to continue to deprive boys and men of special training, while continuing to provide such training to girls and women--if we want to narrow the gap.

Wiser societies would focus upon the need for better scientists and engineers--of whatever gender. But our society appears to be fixated upon the concept of "gender equity", which is unknown to biology and mother nature. If gender equity requires a type of "brain-binding" of males, to achieve equity--or even female superiority--so be it.

It appears that the journal Nature is under attack by gender-equity feminists, for supposedly discriminating against female scientists and/or technologists. For hyper-egalitarians, any statistical inequity is de facto evidence of discrimination. Logically, such hyper-egalitarians are an shaky ground, but in a post-modernist world, logic carries far less weight than it once did.

Peel Scalp, Open Skull, Apply Electrodes

Medical indications for the placement of brain electrodes are multiplying. Parkinson's, paralysis, pain control, epilepsy, depression, deafness, blindness, and many more. It is good that the techniques for brain electrode implantation are growing more sophisticated.

1. Electrodes on the scalp can only detect electrical waves that have passed through the skull, producing a weak signal susceptible to interference from mains electricity and other sources.
2. Electrodes implanted directly into the brain produce much clearer signals, but are not well tolerated by the body. "The brain tries to get rid of [the electrodes] by covering them with a sheet of tissue," explains Schalk. "The signal degrades over time."
3. Schalk and colleagues at Albany Medical College, Washington University in St Louis, University of Washington, Seattle, and the University of Wisconsin at Madison, all US, think a third approach will face fewer hurdles...They cover part of the brain's surface with a polymer sheet containing a grid of electrodes 2 millimetres in diameter and spaced 10 mm apart, a method called electrocorticography (ECOG). Such electrode grids are often placed in people with severe epilepsy to identify the focus of seizures within the brain.

"These grids are thin like a sheet of paper," says Schalk. "The electrodes record signals similar to those recorded by electrodes on the scalp, but with much greater fidelity."___ NewScientist

So far, the new approach looks good for long-term electrode array implantation. As the electrode arrays become more sophisticated, so do the possibilities for communication between the brain and electronic machines.

'When we turn the current on, the patients report the emptiness suddenly disappears'...By inserting electrodes into the brain while the patient is conscious (so that the surgeon knows if they have hit the right spot), Dr Mayberg found remarkable results. When she published her work, she said: "In the operating room, when we first turn the current on and get into the right location, the patients report that the heaviness or emptiness suddenly disappears. If they had a sense of a black cloud, they report it physically lifting."

The moment the electrodes were turned off, some of the positive effects vanished, but the overall results - four out of six patients were lifted from depression for six months - were encouraging.___Source

Wireheading is the science fiction concept of being able to connect the brain directly to an external electronic signal--for either "electronic bliss" or for purposes of high level communication with sophisticated computing devices (or with other wireheads).

The more sophisticated the brain electrode arrays, the more sophisticated the possible mind-machine or mind-mind interactions. "Brain chips" are already learning how to transfer neural signals across a "brain necrotic divide," as from a stroke. Such chips are slowly growing beyond mere relay stations, to learning to decode simple neural signals. As such experience grows, neurochips will learn even better neural communications skills.

In the brain, it is all about the connections, the timing, the amplitudes, and the frequencies. The smart approach to learning our way around brain signaling would be to implant smart arrays of electrodes that merely sit, watch, wait, correlate, analyse, theorise, and test theories. It goes without saying that such experiments with passive brain electrode arrays would also contribute to machine cognition research. Conversely, better machine cognition based upon brain emulation, would provide neuro-researchers with better models for testing theories and hypotheses.

Just getting started? No, just starting to get started.

30 Cents a Gallon Ethanol, Honda Co-Generates?

ZeaChem and Coskata are promising high volume bio-ethanol at US $1 a gallon, by 2012. New Canadian startup Syntec promises even cheaper bio-ethanol--40 cents a gallon.

The Syntec B2A technology, initially developed at the University of British Columbia, is focused on second-generation cellulosic ethanol production. The Syntec process parallels the low-pressure catalytic synthesis process used by methanol producers. Syntec's innovative technology uses any renewable waste biomass such as hard or soft wood, sawdust or bark, organic waste, agricultural waste (including sugar cane bagasse and corn stover), and switch-grass to produce syngas. This syngas, comprised of carbon monoxide and hydrogen, is then scrubbed and passed through a fixed bed reactor containing the Syntec catalysts to produce ethanol, methanol and higher order alcohols. The Syntec technology can also produce alcohols from biogas (sourced from anaerobic digestion of manure and effluent), landfill gas or stranded methane.__NextEnergy

Better information regarding the efficiencies of biofuels indicates that recent articles published in Science that were extremely critical of biofuels efficiencies, were highly misleading. The category of "biofuels" is too wide, varied, and inclusive to be susceptible to simplistic analyses such as were presented in the articles referred to by the link above.

The waste heat from internal combustion engines used in passenger and freight vehicles could be put to better use than heating the atmosphere. Honda is looking to put heat-mining technology in its hybrid vehicles.

Honda is exploring the use of a Rankine cycle co-generation unit to improve the overall efficiency of a hybrid vehicle by recapturing waste exhaust heat from the internal combustion engine and converting it to electricity to recharge the battery pack. Honda engineer Kensaku Yamamoto presented an overview of the work in a paper at the 2008 SAE Hybrid Vehicle Technology Symposium in San Diego.

Test results showed that in 100 kph (62 miles/hour) constant-speed driving, the use of the Rankine cycle improved the thermal efficiency of the engine by 3.8%. In the US highway cycle, the Rankine cycle system regenerated three times as much energy as the vehicle’s regenerative braking system.___GCC __via_Ecogeek

Hopeful discoveries in gas storage technology may make gas-phase powered vehicles more feasible.

In the case of gas storage, MOFs offer the crucial advantage of soaking up some of the gas pressure exerted by the molecules. This makes hydrogen derived from non-fossil energy sources such as biomass, or even genetically engineered plants, potentially viable as a fuel for cars while the alternative of pressurised canisters is not, says Ferey. The key difference is that the amount of gas stored in a conventional cylinder at say 200 atmospheres pressure could be accommodated in an MOF vessel of the same size at just 30 atmospheres, which is much safer...The porous nature of MOFs enables them to be exploited in quite another way as catalysts to accelerate chemical reactions for a wide variety of materials production and pharmaceutical applications, although this field, as Ferey noted, is still in its infancy. ____Source

This technology will likely require another ten or more years to become available for production model vehicles. By then, it is likely that series hybrids powered by bio:fuel cells will be common, incorporating a number of different ways of capturing waste heat to re-charge auxiliary batteries and super-capacitors.

Energy, the Outer Limits

In Outer Space, there are no limits. That is why any true capitalist would not be satisfied to own a business empire that is limited to one planet. Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Paul Allen, Richard Branson, Robert Bigelow, and other successful capitalists wish to extend their empires beyond Earth.

And for good reason. There are enough resources in the asteroid belt alone to make every human being on Earth into mega-billionaires. And beyond the belt?

Consider Titan, the orange moon of Saturn. Titan is awash with hundreds of times more hydrocarbons than all of Earth's known reserves of oil and natural gas.

"Titan is just covered in carbon-bearing material -- it's a giant factory of organic chemicals," said Lorenz. "This vast carbon inventory is an important window into the geology and climate history of Titan."___Source

Can there be any question about the possibility of abiotic hydrocarbons beneath the surface of Earth?

But one does not have to go into outer space to run into the limits of scientific explanation for energy phenomena. As close as the Ottawa area, one can find a home experimenter playing with forces that even MIT engineers cannot explain.

Just before the big day at MIT, the Star spoke with professor Markus Zahn about what he expected to observe..."It's hard for me to give an opinion," said Zahn, who admitted he was excited to see the demonstration. "I don't believe it will violate the laws of physics. You're not going to get more energy out than you put in."

...Contacted by phone a few hours after the test, Zahn is genuinely stumped – and surprised. He said the magnet shouldn't cause acceleration. "It's an unusual phenomena I wouldn't have predicted in advance. But I saw it. It's real. Now I'm just trying to figure it out."

There's no talk of perpetual motion. No whisper of broken scientific laws or free energy. Zahn would never go there – at least not yet. But he does see the potential for making electric motors more efficient, and this itself is no small feat.___Star__via NewEnergyandFuel

No, there is no perpetual motion, as such. But there is acceleration where it is not exactly clear that there should be any.

To quote Professor Zahn again with his thoughts that strongly seized my attention, “To my mind this is unexpected and new, and it’s worth exploring all the possible advantages once you’re convinced it’s a real effect,” he added. “There are an infinite number of induction machines in people’s homes and everywhere around the world. If you could make them more efficient, cumulatively, it could make a big difference.”___NewEnergy

YouTube Video Demonstration(parts 1 and 2--others available at YouTube)

African Biofuels: What to Expect

The 3rd Annual African Biofuels conference is to be held on 10-13 March 2008 in Midrand, South Africa.The African Biofuels conference aims to:

• Provide in-depth insight into the growing African biofuels market

• Offer critical global information for the enhancement of biofuels-related businesses

• Cover every major aspect of the industry from policy and pricing to feedstock crops and CDM

• Give delegates exposure to more than 400 peers and over 50 technology and service providers

• Host a dedicated SMME Workshop for the development of small scale producers___Source

Africa has vast areas of land with great biofuels potential.

...the high rainfall belt between Angola, Zambia and Mozambique alone had the potential to rival the United States as a producer of...bioethanol.

"It's almost as big as the size of the midwest of America. It has the same of type of potential and could actually outperform America___Source

It is important for Africans not to repeat the mistakes of the United States maize ethanol producers.

"Two potential crops have been identified for the fuel ethanol initiative in Nigeria: sugarcane and cassava. Nigeria is currently reputed to be the leading producer of cassava in the world of about 30 million tons annually," states Onochie Anyaoku, group general manager of NNPC's Renewables Division. "The potential must be seen against the background that the average yield in Nigeria is put at about 15 tons/hectare as compared to 25-30 tons/hectare obtainable in other countries.___Source

Cassava and sugarcane both grow well in many parts of Africa. Cane gives much higher yields of alcohol than maize, and cassava fits more growing regions of Africa than maize.

Which crop grown in Africa produces twice as much as maize and three times as much as millet or sorghum? And which crop has seen Africa emerge as overall leader, accounting for more than half of the world output, with Nigeria as the biggest producer? Which same crop has seen production levels triple on the continent over the past 50 years? And now covers one-third of the dietary needs of its population? The answer is cassava.___Source

For biodiesel, we can expect Chinese and other giga-investors to attempt large-scale deforestation in Africa for Palm Oil plantations--just as they are doing in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. But Jatropha is the better oil seed crop for Africa, since it grows in the same fields as other crops--while improving the topsoil from its shed leaves, a rich fertiliser.

Interest is particularly growing in the perennial oil nut bearing jatropha tree, which is viewed as the most feasible plant for dry-land cultivation for the extraction of bio-oil...The plant was often used for snakebites, as an insect repellent and for constipation.

The jatropha tree originates from South America, but was brought to the southern African region by Portuguese explorers....The seeds of the plant grow on low fertility soils in low and high rainfall areas; it has a small gestation period, and can be harvested in non-rainy seasons.

The size of the plant is also convenient for collection of seeds. It produces seeds with a high oil-content (30 to 40 percent) after two to five years, depending on soil fertility and rainfall. According to Mwewa, the plant can yield one liter of oil from three kilogrammes of the nuts, and harvesting can be done over a 50-year period.

The oil from the jatropha plant can be transformed into bio-diesel fuel - which is produced from the reaction of vegetable oil with alcohol in the presence of a catalyst to yield mono-alkyl esters and glycerine, which is then removed - through an etherification process...What makes it more popular amongst protagonists of bio-fuels is because of its toxicity, it is not for human consumption, and therefore not in competition with food crops. Threats to food security are recognised as the primary drawback of large-scale bio-fuels development.___Source

If the Africans can avoid the destruction of large swathes of of rainforest, and stay out of the maize ethanol trap, do not depend on food crops for fuel, and most importantly--do not betray the small farmers in favour of the giga-conglomerates, she may grow into a significant player in the world sustainable energy game, without paying an onerous environmental and sociological price.

Heat Mining in West Virginia

Many heavy industries create large amounts of waste heat, that are simply lost to the environment. Recycled Energy Development LLC is in the business of mining that heat and making it work productively.

Producing silicon, the economic workhorse found in commodities from computer chips to aluminum beer cans, takes way more energy than lighting Wrigley Field for a doubleheader...It's a very heat-intense process.

Quartz rocks placed in electric-arc furnaces exude oxygen as superheated gas, leaving molten silicon. Just venting all that heat without setting something afire is a concern. But what has been a problem has become an opportunity for a Westmont-based firm, Recycled Energy Development LLC.

...It will cost an estimated $45 million to $55 million to build the system, which will generate more than 40 megawatts of electricity. That is enough to power 20,000 homes and will supply about one-third of the silicon-maker's power needs, said Sean Casten, Recycled Energy's chief executive....Globe Metallurgical will buy that electricity for 25 years at a set cost, said Casten, because unlike juice from the electric company it is possible to predict decades ahead how much this electricity will cost.

"We know the cost of our capital," Casten said, "and we know the cost of our fuel because it's zero. We're recovering waste heat."...Because electricity is the highest single cost for West Virginia Alloys, locking in a price for 25 years for a major chunk of that power is attractive. Another benefit may come from the new federal energy law that could subsidize plants that recycle waste heat.

Nearly all electricity generated in West Virginia comes from burning coal, Casten said, so when the recycling-energy operation kicks in two years from now it will replace electricity associated with an estimated 290,000 metric tons of greenhouse gases annually.___Tribune

CHP (combined heat and power) is a rapidly expanding way to improve efficiencies, for systems that need both heat and electric power for operations. That includes your home, by the way, if you like being warm in winter, and having hot water for showers and power for electric lighting. One of the more interesting CHP applications coming along is home fuel cells that provide power, hot water, and space heating. When heat-powered refrigerators are better developed, waste heat from your home power generation may even power your refrigerator--reducing your power load.

Efficiencies of up to 90% using CHP are possible, which in big industry amounts to huge savings in both money and fossil fuels.

Interestingly, the world's most efficient CHP plant utilises biomass fuels.

This list of biomass projects contains several CHP plants

Nuclear Fusion: Behind the Scenes Plays to Commercial Fusion:--Before ITER Gets Off the Ground

Two of my favourite blogger Brians--Brian Wang and Brian Westenhaus--have recently posted articles about Bussard Fusion, and nuclear fusion in general. Today's post from Brian Westenhaus includes some interesting quotes about the future of fusion energy:

...Bussard’s technology is different. It and many others concepts are different in that in some cases the process will be aneutronic or direct conversion from nuclear fusion to electricity with no heat production. The heat conversion and other massive installations to handle the atomic heat output and electrical generation are expected to be unnecessary. In the Bussard system there is just electricity and a trickle of radiation, which stops the moment you turn the fueling off or over fuel it. It just fizzles out like the old vacuum tubes. And they’re small, such as fitting on ships, inside office buildings and even airplanes.[SF Author Karl Schroeder]

...""Within five years, large companies will start to think about building fusion reactors," Wal van Lierop, CEO of Chrysalix Energy Venture Capital, said in an interview at the Clean Tech Investor Summit taking place here this week. In three to four years, scientists will demonstrate results that show that fusion has a 60 percent chance of success, he said."[Venture Capitalist Wal van Lierop]___NewEnergy

Brian goes on to discuss van Lierop's venture play with Canadian company General Fusion, a company aiming to build small 100 MW fusion reactors providing power at a competitive cost of US $0.04 per kwh. There is much more at the NewEnergyand Fuel link above.

Brian Wang at NextBigFuture took a look at progress in Bussard Fusion last month, and more recently looks at the other small fusion projects that venture capitalists are backing--including General Fusion mentioned above. He describes the General Fusion approach:

GF will build a ~3 meter diameter spherical tank filled with liquid metal (lead-lithium mixture). The liquid is spun to open up a vertical cylindrical cavity in the center of the sphere (vortex). Two spheromaks (magnetized plasma “smoke ring”) are injected from each end of the cavity. They merge in the center to form a single magnetized plasma target. The outside of the sphere is covered with pneumatic rams. The rams use compressed steam to accelerate pistons to ~50 m/s. These pistons simultaneously impact the outside of the sphere and launch a spherical compression wave in the liquid metal. As the wave travels and focuses towards the center, it becomes stronger and evolves into a strong shock wave. When the shock arrives in the center, it rapidly collapses the cavity with the plasma in it. At maximum compression the conditions for fusion are briefly met and a fusion burst occurs releasing its energy in fast neutrons. The neutrons are slowed down by the liquid metal causing it to heat up. A heat exchanger transfers that heat to a standard steam cycle turbo-alternator to produce electricity for the grid. Some of the steam is used to run the rams. The lithium in the liquid metal finally absorbs the neutrons and produces tritium that is extracted and used as fuel for subsequent shots. This cycle is repeated about one time per second.___NextBigFuture

Very creative, in my humble opinion. Brian then goes on to discuss other approaches to MTF--Magnetized Target Fusion . He also provides links for further reading and research.

Here is Ecogeek's interview with SF Author Karl Schroeder and News.com's look at Venture Capitalist Wal van Lierop.
(via NewEnergyand Fuel)

Here is a blog run by M. Simon dedicated to the IEC Bussard Fusion approach.

Here are links to much more material on Bussard and Polywell IEC fusion.

More IEC Fusion links.

Recent Hobbyspace look at low budget fusion ventures

ITER may not even be running before the year 2020. What if one of the long-shot venture capital approaches pays off--and makes ITER look like yet another obsolete mega-government dinosaur, before it is even completed?

Politically Correct Engineering

There is a huge problem with schools of engineering. They are overwhelmingly dominated by male students. This gender discrepancy is not politically correct. Even in women's colleges, engineering has been absent--women's colleges have not offered engineering degrees, until now.

The problem is THE MATH!!! Yes, engineering math is apparently too hard for most women to deal with, so something had to be done about THE MATH!!! Clever Smith College professor, Glenn Ellis, decided he would be the one to bring Engineering to women's colleges--starting with Smith. Ellis decided to do something about THE MATH!!!

The first women's college to offer an engineering degree, Smith is forging new paths in a field that's eager to swell its ranks in the United States. Women receive only 20 percent of bachelor's degrees in engineering, according to a new report by the National Science Board (NSB). Like a handful of other liberal arts colleges, Smith is producing graduates who've had a different type of engineering education – one that goes beyond technical training to focus on a broader context for finding solutions to humanity's problems; one that emphasizes ethics and communication; one so flexible that about half the students study abroad, which is rare, despite the multinational nature of many engineering jobs.

...He encouraged the diverse group to "play around" as they graphed how their distance from the sensor changed over short bursts of time. Anna Lorenz amused the class as she tried a moonwalk to keep her line as straight as possible. "That's a Smith first!" Ellis declared gleefully.___CSM

There is nothing wrong with using intuitive methods to teach the underlying concepts of calculus and mechanics. I highly recommend incorporating intuitive methods into math, engineering, and science myself. But you cannot leave out THE MATH!!!

I'm no expert, but I'm not clear on what you can engineer with "context, ethics, and communication." I hope the Chronicle is wrong in saying that this engineering curriculum emphasizes sociology and philosophy "as much as," um, engineering.

To be sure, if teaching in this way improves women's performance on actual engineering tasks, as opposed to just luring them into enrolling and sticking around, I'm all for it. But I find it hard to believe such distractions would improve on a focused curriculum, and I can't seem to find any information on (A) how these students compare to those who got into sex-integrated engineering programs and (B) how these women do when they graduate. Certainly, were the program working well, it wouldn't need affirmative-action deals like this:

Students who maintain an overall GPA of 3.5 and a GPA of 3.5 within the major are automatically admitted to graduate study in an engineering discipline at Dartmouth College, Johns Hopkins University, Tufts University, the University of Notre Dame, and the University of Michigan.___Source

We know that women and men have different aptitude curves for math and verbal ability. Test scores for males are higher in math, scores for females are higher in verbal ability.

Approximately 1.3 percent of the Medalists will be women. Since the prize is conferred quadrennially, we expect a female Fields Medalist to emerge approximately once every 103 years, that is, every 4/[3(0.013)] years. None has yet surfaced.

Rather than PC dumbing down engineering to fit more women and minorities, perhaps it would be better to invest our scarce resources in the persons who are best suited for the particular field of study. Do not select by race, gender, sexual orientation etc. Select by ability to learn and perform.

Fast Train to Hell and other News

The Interstate Traveler Hydrogen Superhighway is due to begin construction sometime in 2008, to link Ann Arbor with Detroit.

The public transit system would combine high speed magnetically levitated cars running on elevated parallel magnetic rails, laminated solar cells, and the conduit cluster that would be used to distribute electricity, water, fuels, etc. Each mile of rail should produce about 844,800 watts of electricity per hour using solar energy. Hydrogen would be used in fuel cells, internal combustion engines, micro turbines and other energy conversion devices to generate power. ...The cars will be able to carry both people and normal vehicles and move on four runners attached to the metallic polls and will be managed by TCP/IP signaling.____NextEnergy

Yep, that should remediate Detroit, certainly.

Another interesting approach to generating clean energy is the Cool Earth Solar Balloon.

Because its design uses relatively cheap and readily available components, these solar concentrators can generate electricity at a cost comparable to that of natural-gas plants. The inflated solar collectors can withstand 100 mile-per-hour wind....The setup can also be unfurled globally, rather than only in places with available funding for expensive energy projects. The company says it's negotiating with utilities to sell electricity from its solar farms....Although most people envision rooftop panels when they think of solar electricity, many new solar technologies are being developed for power plants. Utilities in some US states, notably California, need to comply with renewable-energy mandates. And certain regions, such as the desert in America's southwest and parts of Spain, are well-suited for solar-thermal power plants. ___Source

Finally, here is a video of an interesting roof-top wind turbine design (PDF). It is made in modular sections which can be connected to construct ever longer turbines. It can be installed horizontally, or vertically.

Medical Homeschooling: Making It Economical

A medical education at a real medical school can be very expensive. Fortunately, medical educator and surgeon Carla Pugh has devised several economical "virtual patient" devices that will allow homeschool medical students to perform even the most "sensitive" examinations at home.

Her first creation, in 1998, was a “vaginal vault” made of a cardboard toilet-paper roll, Play-Doh and a badminton shuttlecock (a makeshift cervix). She has also constructed a scrotum using two wood balls linked by a rubber band (vas deferens) and suspended in an extra-large condom filled with oil and peanut butter.

She often buys penises at adult “novelty” shops, though they are all erect and circumcised, and sometimes welds on rubber tubing used for synthetic intestines when a foreskin is needed.

...The models need not be particularly high-tech. “A very sophisticated simulator would be too much for a student,” he said. “For simple tasks like a pelvic exam, a simple simulator like Carla’s is actually preferable. You don’t teach a teenager to drive in a million-dollar Ferrari.”

...normal people can be squeamish about touching strangers’ scrotums without it being a life-changing situation. The onus is on doctors. What good is a mechanic who doesn’t like getting greasy? If you have a squeamish doctor, get a new doctor.___Source

Some of you are no doubt wondering why these medical homeschoolers do not simply experiment on themselves, their wives, or their husbands. The fact is, many med student homeschoolers lack a suitable partner at home--and many of those who have significant others at home report that the partners are often reluctant to allow them to work through the sensitive learning curve of the exams.

I know that others of you are saying to yourselves, "why don't homeschool medical students learn to do these exams the same way that licensed dentists do: on their patients who are under anesthesia?" The fact is, many homeschool medical students cannot afford the dental chairs and anesthesia needed for that technique. One reason for doing homeschool medicine in the first place, is that they could not afford a real on-campus medical school.

Physicians who never become comfortable doing sensitive exams are a hazard to their patients. Every symptom can have multiple causes--some serious, some trivial and self-limited. Whether educated in a home medical school, or a large university medical school, it is important that every licensed physician get plenty of practise performing examinations that could potentially make both them and their patient uncomfortable.

Although I personally went to a real medical school, I do not criticise others who choose the home-school route. It is only fair for me to point out, however, that medical homeschools allow graduates to obtain only an HMD degree, and license. This license requires the graduate to restrict his practise of medicine to the home, on family members. But for those with very large extended families, the profession of HMD can still be profitable. Insurance companies do not pay for services rendered by HMDs, however.

H/T Kurzweilai.net

Climate Orthodoxy Is Given Little Respect by Anyone Acquainted with Actual Science

Pity the poor infant science of climatology. Fresh from winning the Nobel Peace(!) Prize, the high priests of climatology return from Oslo to find that back at home, most knowledgeable people do not consider them "real scientists." Why not?

The scientists who interest me in this field are those who can draw on the experience of a lot of people who have come before them. And uniformly in these areas I find scepticism. People who write mathematical models of complex systems for a living tend to find the climate models very unconvincing. Geologists find the arguments very unconvincing. Engineers find the arguments unconvincing. And astrophysicists find the arguments unconvincing.

Why? Well the answers are clear....The climate models seem to be largely driven by over-fitting to a small sample set and positive feedback. The small sample set - at most 30 years of accurate data - might be enough to try and predict one or two years, but 50 year predictions? Ignoring the biggest effect on global warming - water vapour - is surely going to cause problems.

Positive feedback in engineering invariably results in unstable systems - so we have to ask why do most if not all of the climate models rely on it to get doomsday predictions? For the Earth to have survived as long as it has with a stable climate, through major events like ice-ages or volcanic eruptions, there is little doubt that a degree of negative climate feedback is essential.

Geologists will quite happily explain how major climate changes in the Earth are a result of geological changes. Remember that more carbon is trapped in limestone than in either plant life or fossil fuels (or both put together for that matter). Ice ages and volcanic eruptions are all things that will unarguably change the climate. Yet, with the notable exception of the extinction of the dinosaurs, it seems life has happily trundled along through it all. We're the living proof.

Of course, it's also interesting to see changes over shorter time periods. If you go to see the Roman ruins at Ephesus in Turkey, the guide will point out that the harbour is miles from where the nearest sea is today. Sea levels go up and down for many reasons - carbon dioxide not being one of them. Somehow, we survive.___Source

Rather than sitting still, being quiet, and letting the infant high priests of climatology destroy the global economy, many scientists have gotten disgusted enough by the quasi-religious pompous pseudoscientific pretense, to say "enough!"

• There are no calculations to determinate an average surface temperature of a planet:

• a) with or without atmosphere,

• b) with or without rotation,

• c) with or without infrared light absorbing gases.

• The frequently mentioned difference of 33 C for the fictitious greenhouse effect of the atmosphere is therefore a meaningless number.

• Any radiation balance for the average radiant flux is completely irrelevant for the determination of the ground level air temperatures and thus for the average value as well.

• Average temperature values cannot be identifed with the fourth root of average values of the absolute temperature’s fourth power.

• Radiation and heat flows do not determine the temperature distributions and their average values.

• Re-emission is not reflection and can in no way heat up the ground-level air against the actual heat flow without mechanical work.

• The temperature rises in the climate model computations are made plausible by a perpetuum mobile of the second kind [perpetual motion machine]. This is possible by setting the thermal conductivity in the atmospheric models to zero, an unphysical assumption. It would be no longer a perpetuum mobile of the second kind, if the average fictitious radiation balance, which has no physical justification anyway, was given up.

• After Schack 1972 water vapor is responsible for most of the absorption of the infrared radiation in the Earth’s atmosphere. The wavelength of the part of radiation, which is absorbed by carbon dioxide is only a small part of the full infrared spectrum and does not change considerably by raising its partial pressure. Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects : : : 93

• Infrared absorption does not imply “backwarming”. Rather it may lead to a drop of the temperature of the illuminated surface.

• In radiation transport models with the assumption of local thermal equilibrium, it is assumed that the absorbed radiation is transformed into the thermal movement of all gas molecules. There is no increased selective re-emission of infrared radiation at the low temperatures of the Earth’s atmosphere.___Much More at Source

H/T Icecap and Green Watch

The problem with calling climate modelers "scientists", is that actual scientists generate testable, falsifiable hypotheses within their specific areas of study. Actual scientists operate under the discipline of the scientific method. GCMs (general circulation models)--the omnipotent toys of climate modelers--are not falsifiable. They are not even good enough to be wrong!

Yet, Senators Obama, Clinton, and McCain all claim to believe in the proclamations of the orthodox IPCC, to arbitrarily place onerous controls, damaging regulations, and crippling restrictions on the US economy--to placate the "gods" of global warming. Talk about human sacrifice! The EU government is even worse, but then, no one expects any better from an unrepresentative, unaccountable mega-bureaucracy like the EU.

The dullards who remain, fixed in their unmovable belief in CAGW, are the real losers here. At least the members of the orthodoxy are getting tenure, publications, a certain amount of "acclaim", and--a Nobel Peace(!) Prize. The dullard true believers will get nothing whatsoever out of this deal--except drained pocketbooks, loss of jobs, and in the end--incredible disillusionment when the whole cathedral-of-cards comes crashing to ground. C'est la vie.

CO2 to Gasoline: More on Green Freedom

More details about the Los Alamos Lab's Green Freedom (pdf) CO2 to Fuels project are revealed at Green Car Congress.

While the chemistry of capturing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere can be straightforward (CO2 is readily absorbed into a potassium carbonate solution where it forms bicarbonate ions), the challenge in developing a practical system lies in the large volumes of air that would need to be processed to capture sufficient amounts of CO2 for useful application. Furthermore, according to the Los Alamos team, the conventional processing can only capture 73% of the carbon dioxide from the processed air on a single pass.

By contrast, Green Freedom uses a newly-developed electrolytic stripping process that can capture production quantities of air; capture more than 95% of the carbon dioxide on a single pass; and produces hydrogen as a byproduct that reduces supplemental hydrogen production requirements by 33%.

Read the full PDF report here.

The bottom line? The price of gasoline at the pump would need to be US $4.60 per gallon for the process to be profitable. The calculation assumes the incorporation of a nuclear reactor to provide electricity for the process.

Update: Snake Oil Baron was kind enough to provide the link to this UCLA research on CO2 trapping using zeolidic imidozolate frameworks (ZIFs).

"For each liter of ZIF, you can hold 83 liters of carbon dioxide," Banerjee said.... Zeolites are stable, porous minerals made of aluminum, silicon and oxygen that are employed in petroleum refining and are used in detergents and other products. Yaghi's group has succeeded in replacing what would have been aluminum or silicon with metal ions like zinc and cobalt, and the bridging oxygen with imidazolate to yield ZIF materials, whose structures can now be designed in functionality and metrics. ___Physorg

Very intriguing indeed. Thanks Baron!

When we burn fossil fuels and utilise biomass and biofuels, we are taking advantage of nature's ability to turn CO2 into fuel. What scientists at Los Alamos, Sandia, ELCAT, etc are trying to do is to go cleanly from CO2 to gasoline or diesel, without involving life forms.

As better CO2 air capture methods are developed, the economics of CO2-to-gasoline should improve. No one wants to pay $4.60 per gallon at the pump, but when that becomes the norm, it would be nice to know that the gasoline you are burning was made locally, out of thin air.

Biomass Combined Heat and Power: One of Many Reasons Why Predictions of the Demise of Biofuels are Premature

Biofuels have taken a lot of abuse in the media--particularly from uninformed commentators with no knowledge of biology. Recent analyses of "1st generation biofuels" in Science should be viewed as belated criticism of Jimmy Carter's sloppy legacy. Decades old methods, propagated by corrupt government tariffs and policies, are not an indication of what biology is gearing up to do. One of the large benefits from bio-energy that is ready for prime time, is biomass combined heat and power (CHP or cogeneration).

Renewable biomass now meets more than 65 per cent of the multinational company's total energy needs and has cut emissions nearly by half over the past five years.

The bioenergy plant will utilize abundant residues from the Cowie factory: bark and wood residue from the manufacturing process. The total amount of biomass now used in green power plants at Nordborg's factories is 1 million tons, equivalent to two million barrels of oil per year....

Biomass is a rapidly growing energy sector in the UK, mainly because it is the most competitive of the renewables and relies largely on existing infrastructures. The world's largest biomass plant is under construction in the country: a 350MW power facility that will provide energy to not less than half of all homes in Wales....According to the recently published UK Biomass Strategy, the total amount of virgin wood available to England, Scotland and Wales for use as fuel is set to increase by 55% over the next decade, from 1.1 million oven dry tonnes to 1.7 million oven dry tonnes per year. Waste wood and biomass resources are larger still.___biopact

Energy problems will be solved by incremental solutions, over time. Solutions should be regional, based upon regional needs and assets. High oil prices are a wake-up call for more energy from all available economical sources. Nuclear fission, unconventional petroleum, clean coal, geothermal, solar, wind, energy from garbage, and bio-energy. We must become more resourceful. Conservation is also necessary--and this blog will explore several promising areas in that regard. All are needed. The denial of the present and future of bio-energy is a propaganda exercise carried out by partisans and the ignorant, who fail to understand the full spectrum of needs and solutions.

The biosphere is remarkably expandable. One cannot base an energy analysis of bio-energy potential based upon current methods, or current levels of available bio-materials. That type of thinking, if honest, is moronic luddism. If dishonest--as when practised by partisans who are boosting alternative forms of energy--it should be ignored as false advertising.

Waiting for Sunspot

The sun has gone quiet. Really quiet.

It is normal for our sun to have quiet periods between solar cycles, but we’ve seen months and months of next to nothing, and the start of Solar cycle 24 seems to have materialized (as first reported here) then abruptly disappeared. The reverse polarity sunspot that signaled the start of cycle 24 on January 4th, dissolved within two days after that.___Anthony Watts___via TomNelson

Solar Cycle 24 is still trying to get started. Sunspots are a reflection of violent activity deep within the fluid sun. A lack of sunspots should tell us something about what is and is not happening within the star.

The Babcock model says that the differential rotation of the Sun winds up the magnetic fields of it’s layers during a solar cycle. The magnetic fields will then eventually tangle up to such a degree that they will eventually cause a magnetic break down and the fields will have to struggle to reorganize themselves by bursting up from the surface layers of the Sun. This will cause magnetic North-South pair boundaries (spots) in the photosphere trapping gaseous material that will cool slightly. Thus, when we see sunspots, we are seeing these areas of magnetic field breakdown.___Watts

The ancients understood the importance of the sun, and had their ways to jumpstart the sun god, whenever he got lazy. In the movie "Sunshine", scientists had invented an exotic matter bomb, to re-ignite a cooling sun.

What we may be seeing is a prelude to a solar minimum(PDF). If so, it is too early to determine whether it will be of short duration or intermediate duration. The Maunder Minimum of the 17th century had repercussions lasting over a century.

Fuel from CO2: Nature Does It, Why Not Us?

Roger Pielke Jr. has been talking about "air capture" of CO2 for years. The Europeans (ELCAT) have been working on methods to make hydrocarbon chains up to C8 from CO2 since 2004. In the US, at least three groups are working on CO2 to fuel processes: Global Research Technologies in Arizona, Sandia Labs in New Mexico, and Los Alamos Labs in New Mexico.

Scientists there [Los Alamos] say they have developed a way to produce a truly carbon-neutral fuel and useful organic chemicals at large scale using carbon dioxide removed from the air as the raw material. There are plenty of schemes brewing to capture carbon dioxide, both directly from the atmosphere and from the stacks of power plants. All of them, for the moment, are costly or hard to envision at the billion-tons-a-year scale that would be needed to blunt the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere coming mainly from fuel burning.

The advantage with the Los Alamos’s “Green Freedom” concept, and similar ones, is that reusing the carbon atoms in the captured CO2 molecules as a fuel ingredient avoids the need to find huge repositories for the greenhouse gas. The lab’s researchers, led by F. Jeffrey Martin, say their system could process vast volumes of air using existing giant structures like the cooling towers at nuclear power plants — a big possible advantage over using corn, switchgrass or other crops to capture the carbon for reuse.___NYT

Of course, nature has mastered the conversion of CO2 to burnable oils and biomass for over a billion years. That is one reason the concentration of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere is so low at this time. While humans are finding more efficient ways of using nature's ingenuity to supply fuel needs, the importance of finding ways to economically replace fossil fuels is acquiring urgency as the price of hydrocarbons continues to remain quite high.

It makes sense to work along several parallel paths in the quest to develop large and reliable supplies of hydrocarbon replacements. Craig Venter and his merry band of synthetic biologists are attempting to improve on nature through the creation of synthetic living fuel factories. Other scientists are attempting to "bypass the middle man" and go straight from CO2 to hydrocarbons using non-biological methods. To each his own.

Tropical Palm Oil vsJatropha Oil: Why Not Both?

Palm oil produces higher yields than Jatropha oil, by about 5 to 3. But monoculture palm oil plantations destroy large areas of tropical forest, along with the entire ecostructure that depends upon those forests. The Chinese investors in palm oil plantations do not care about the environment, but there is evidence that Japanese investors in palm oil are thinking about sustainability.

The plant will utilize jatropha curcas and palm oil for biodiesel and power production. The crops are to be established on 100,000 hectares of plantations. Besides biodiesel, a biogas plant will be build to utilize waste streams from the crop processing operations.___Biopact

By combining the cultivation of jatropha along with palm oil, the Japanese venture protects and builds the topsoil, and increases yields--using less cultivated land. By also using biomass waste streams from crop processing, the Japanese project achieves still greater energy yield from the same land area.Biofuels can be developed responsibly, or they can be developed without concern for long-term consequences. The Chinese seem to be acting with a reckless disregard for the environment, whereas the Japanese are acting in a more civilised and responsible way. Wanton destruction of tropical habitat is not the proper way to develop biofuels.

Palm oil has so much better oil yields per hectare than soy, corn, rapeseed, etc. that (like corn ethanol) biodiesel from North American oil seed crops could not survive without government subsidies and tariffs. North Americans can do better by taking the algae approach, and by using biomass energies.

Economic indicators suggest that palm oil biodiesel is beginning to be taken seriously on world markets. Let's hope that the Japanese approach takes precedence over the Chinese approach.

Fuel Cell Revolution: DCFC's Run On Biomass!?!

Biomass can easily be turned to "bio-coal" carbon. Now, that biomass carbon can be used to drive fuel cells. The only output is pure CO2--the favoured food for plants!

Last year, the director of the Department of Colloid Chemistry at the Max Planck Institute of Colloids and Interfaces, Prof Dr Markus Antonietti, developed an innovative technique with which any type of biomass can be converted into renewable and climate friendly 'designer coal'. Uses for the carbon are plenty, but professor Antonietti confessed that he and his researchers are part of a growing group of scientists who dream of a Direct Carbon Fuel Cell (DCFC) and a green carbon economy. As its name implies, a DCFC converts elemental carbon into electricity directly, and in a hyper-efficient way - the cells have almost twice the efficiency of most other types of fuel cells and double that of fossil fuel power plants.

...The reaction yields 80 percent of the carbon–oxygen combustion energy as electricity, yet no burning of the carbon takes place. DCFCs for stationary applications provide up to 1 kilowatt of power per square meter of cell surface area — a rate sufficiently high for practical applications. Some developers are designing DCFCs for mobile applications that can deliver energy densities in the range of 1,000–2,000 Wh/kg, far higher than any advanced battery.

...DCFC technology has several potential benefits over other fuel cells. First, it can use a wide variety of very abundant low cost carbonaceous fuels including coal, coke, tar, biomass and organic waste. Conventional fuel cells typically operate on gaseous fuels. The fuel (natural gas, propane, ethanol, etc.) is reformed to a hydrogen syngas, which is fed into the fuel cell stack. The DCFC, however, can operate directly on solid carbon fuel, which is stable, easy to store, handle and transport. DCFCs don't require the construction of an entirely new and expensive infrastructure - which is the case for hydrogen - nor do they lose the energy needed to turn fuel into gas.

Secondly, unlike hydrogen or methanol fuel cells, DCFC use no catalyst or costly noble metals like platinum. This cuts costs, and should increase reliability.___Biopact

This development has all the makings of a fuel cell revolution. Hydrogen has always been a bad bet for mobile and de-centralised fuel cell applications. It is time to grow out of that childish hydrogen fantasy.

CO2 and Trees: City Trees vs. Country Trees

Photosynthetic plants tend to react a certain way toward CO2--the more CO2, the faster they grow. It sounds like a feedback, to me. Looking at the country/city tree cousins:

“In the country, the trees were about up to my waist. In the city, they were almost over my head — it's really dramatic,” said Jillian W. Gregg, the study's lead author.

“No matter what soil I grew them in they always grew twice as large in New York City,” said Gregg, who said she was initially perplexed by the unexpected results. ____Source___via _M4GW__H/T_TomNelson

Another look at trees grown in different concentrations of CO2:

In May of 1999, four oak (Quercus ellipsoidalis) acorns were planted in each of 24 plots in each of six experimental FACE rings, three of which were maintained at an elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration of 550 ppm and three of which were maintained at the air's ambient CO2 concentration of 360 ppm. Half of the plots in each ring were weeded during the first three summers of the experiment; and in the summer of 2000, half of the plots received regular watering while the other half received no water during a 3.5-week period.

...In the words of the six Minnesota researchers, "the results showed that under hot and dry conditions, elevated CO2 can act like a nurse plant for tree seedlings growing in bare and unshaded areas, increasing seedling survival and growth, and thereby expanding the establishment window for trees encroaching into a grassland environment." In the specific situation investigated in their experiment, for example, they concluded that "increasing atmospheric levels of CO2 may be able to kick-start oak establishment into Cedar Creek's old fields."___CO2 Science_via_M4GW

CO2 is the gaseous fuel that feeds the ecosystem. Doubling atmospheric CO2 is less of a threat to the planet than halving atmospheric CO2 would be. The Biosphere is expandable, as long as there is enough sunlight and CO2. What is the optimal CO2 for earth? It depends. How much life do you want?

Jatropha: Another Look

Jatropha curcus is a semi-tropical shrub yielding non-edible seed oils, that grows well on marginal soilsand actually improves the quality of the soil in which it grows. Jatropha yields 3000 kg of oil per hectare, compared to 375 kg/hectare for soybean oil, and 1000 kg/hectare for rapeseed oil.

Jatropha is seen by many to be the perfect biodiesel crop. It can be grown in very poor soils actually generating top soil as it goes, is drought and pest resilient, and it has seeds with up to 40% oil content.

Here are some facts and figures about Jatropha relating to its growth as an oil product:

- Jatropha grows well on low fertility soils however increased yields can be obtained using a fertilizer containing small amounts of magnesium, sulphur, and calcium.
- Jatropha can be intercropped with many cash crops such as coffee, sugar, fruits and vegetables with the Jatropha offering both fertilizer and protection against livestock.
- Jatropha needs at least 600mm of rain annually to thrive however it can survive three years of drought by dropping its leaves.
- Jatropha is excellent at preventing soil erosion, and the leaves it drops act as a wonderful soil enriching mulch.
- Jatropha prefers alkaline soils.
After the first five years, the typical annual yield of a jatropha tree is 3.5kg of beans.
- Jatropha trees are productive for up to 30-40 years.
- 2,200 trees can be planted per hectare (approx 1,000 per acre).
- 1 hectare should yield around 7 tonnes of seeds per year.
- The oil pressed from 4kg of seeds is needed to make 1 litre of biodiesel.
- 91%+ of the oil can be extracted with cold pressing.
- 1 hectare should yield around 2.2-2.7 tonnes of oil.
- Press cake (seedcake) is left after the oil is pressed from the seeds. This can be composted and used as a high grade nitrogen rich organic fertilizer (green manure). The remaining oil can be used to make skin friendly soap.

___Source

Jatropha will not grow well wherever there is appreciable frost. But Jatropha can be grown on plantations in the tropics, eg Mexico, and shipped to industrial North America for processing, as in this newsrelease.
More on the jatropha plant

Jatropha is an ideal crop for third world nations in need of a local source of diesel, since it requires little cultivation, has a higher yield than most other oil seeds, can be grown along with other crops, does not have to be re-planted every year like many other oil seed crops, and improves the soil while discouraging crop foraging by wildlife and domestic stock.

Eventually, algal biodiesel will outcompete oil seed crops, for high volume industrial production. In the meantime, imported jatropha seed for local processing may offer cost advantages over food crop oil seeds. In a later post, I will look at the advantages and disadvantages of jatropha vs. palm oil.

FEEDSTOCK	Country	Yield/hectare (kg)	Rate per barrel(US$)
SOYA OIL	USA	375	73
RAPESEED OIL	Europe	1000	78
JATROPHA OIL	INDIA	3000	43
PALM OIL	Malaysia	5000	46

Second Generation Biofuels: We Love CO2!

Many environmental websites are revealing their ignorance of the state of the art in biofuels R&D. If they want to be taken seriously on the topic of biofuels, they need to start up the learning curve of second generation biofuels.

Vijayanand S Moholkar of the Guwahati-based Indian Institute of Technology said, “Pre-liminary experiments show tremendous potential for micro-algae derived oil feedstock for economic synthesis of bio-diesel. Proper cultivation of micro-algae can produce 10 times more oil than Jatropha in the same piece of land. Jatropha and Karanja yield not more than 1 to 1.5 tonne of oil per hectare of cultivation —a major limitation, which adversely affects the bio-diesel Economy.”

Moholkar was in Delhi last week to participate in the 5th International Bio-fuels Conference organised by Winrock International-India. He said largescale production of micro-algae can be done in raceway ponds (closed loop recirculation channels) and photobioreactors. The prices of micro-algal oil and crude fossil oil must differ by two orders of magnitude, so as to make microalgal bio-diesel a cost-effective alternative, he said.

K Subramaniam from the biotechnology department of Sathyamangalam-based Bannari Amman Institute of Technology favoured biochemical conversion of rice straw and other biomass into bio-ethanol. He said that the bio-ethanol production from cheaply available rice straw by separate enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation can be economically viable.

According to Mritunjay Kumar Shukla of the Dehradun-based Indian Institute of Petroleum bio-ethers, particularly Dimethyl ether (DME), Diethyl ether (DEE) and methylal seem to be promising among all the bio-fuels due to their oxygenated molecular structure, better combustion characteristics, superior well-to-wheel efficiency, low GHG emissions and higher production efficiency.

The director-general of International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), William D Dar said that his institute has found out the way for production bio-ethanol without comprising food security. The stalks of the varieties of sweet sorghum developed by the institute can produce bio-ethanol and increase livelihood options for farmers in dryland areas.____Financial Express

Many species of algae and seagrass thrive on artificially raised levels of CO2. Land plants such as trees and grasses show the same accelerated growth in atmospheres artificially boosted in CO2 levels.

The researchers report that the elevated CO2 "led to significantly higher reproductive output, below-ground biomass and vegetative proliferation of new shoots in light-replete treatments," i.e., those receiving light at 33% of the surface irradiance level. More specifically, they write that "shoots growing at 36 µM CO2(aq) were 25% larger than those in the unenriched treatment [16 µM CO2(aq)]," while "at 85 µM CO2(aq) shoots were 50% larger than those in the unenriched treatment and at 1123 µM CO2(aq) shoots were almost twice as large as those in the unenriched treatment." In addition, they found that at 1123 µM CO2(aq) "22% of the shoots differentiated into flowers, more than twice the flowering output of the other treatments at this light level."___Source

By coupling the growth of biofuel biomass with the CO2 of power plant effluent gas, you accomplish accelerated growth of biomass while transferring the CO2 and pollutants from power plant effluent to the growing biofuel feedstock.

Algae, seagrass, and other organisms living in the sea, thrive on higher CO2 levels. But if it is politically advantageous to remove CO2 from the air--thus depriving sea life of its food--humans may have to use the "power plant effluent to algal bio-diesel and bio-petroleum" route.

A1 "Sauce": A Fertile Aphrodisiac

Androstadienone (A1) is a musky steroid that elevates the mood of women, increases feelings of "caring", and makes a woman more comfortable and ready for intimacy.

“It has been shown that when women ovulate, their response to androstadienone is strongest,” says Andreas Keller, a postdoc in Leslie Vosshall’s Laboratory of Neurogenetics and Behavior. “It is also a time when women are apt to reproduce.” By exposing ovulating women to androstadienone and measuring their physiological responses to it, Keller and Vosshall ultimately hope to figure out whether androstadienone, also a derivative of testosterone and potential social signal, affects how men and women interact with one another.___Rockefeller University Hospital

The Rockefeller study intends to enlarge upon the scientific knowledge of the effect of A1 on women--specifically women who are ovulating, thus most fertile. Scientists have begun mapping the areas of the human cortex that are activated by A1. It has also been discovered that not just any "musk" will do. A1 appears to act on the female brain in a way that is unique among "musks."

Previously, we have shown that Δ4,16-androstadien-3-one modulates psychological state, reducing negative mood and increasing positive mood (Jacob and McClintock, 2000; Jacob et al., 2001a). In order to determine whether similar musky compounds also produce these effects, we compared the effects of androstadienone to those of androstenol and muscone, measuring the psychological states of 37 participants. Androstenol and muscone were chosen because they too have a musky odor at high concentrations, while androstenol is a steroid like androstadienone and muscone is not....Androstadienone's effects on psychological state were unique in comparison with those of androstenol and with muscone. Exposure through passive inhalation, rather than dermal contact, was sufficient for these effects.____Source

A1 is available in 10 ml bottles here for US $79.95

Animals are attracted to each other through pheromonal signaling. Apparently, so are humans. The observed "addictive" nature of falling in love goes deeper than the psychological and physical fulfilling of the needs for pleasure and companionship. The brain itself is altered, and shifted into a state of heightened receptivity, by chemical signaling independent of visual, tactile, or verbal exchanges.

The consummate seducer or seductress learns to create a "gestalt", a holistic multi-sensory experience that "opens the gates and lowers the drawbridge" to the fullest extent possible. It is an art that can be learned, but until recently we had all been largely limited to what nature had given us.

A1 is just another in a long line of prosthetic and augmentative love aids which are increasingly being utilised in the ages-long battle of sex.

In the 1970s, Preti said, a researcher named Martha McClintock discovered the menstrual cycles of women who live together synchronize because of unconscious odor cues. Likewise, Preti, an organic chemist by training, said studies have found chemicals in underarm secretions affect neuroendocrine levels, which alter mood.

He and colleague Charles Wysocki discovered that the levels of luteinizing hormone, which affects the timing of ovulation and the length of menstrual cycles, increased in women after sniffing men's underarm secretions.

...Scientists have been able to conclude that pheromones do play a role in altering behaviors in animals and insects. Animals release pheromones to mark their territory, to alert others of danger, or to mark the trail used to find food.____Source

But it also appears that humans are animals after all--despite the denials--human brains are strongly affected by specific olfactory triggers.

Mary Slim:

Until recently limited to military craft, the wave-piercing attributes of the Very Slender Vessel (VSV) design has now made its way into the civilian boat world in the form of the MarySlim, a stunning 72-foot, £1.5 million, long-range cruiser built by Cornwall based Multimarine Composites that debuted last year at the Royal William Yard in England. The unique shape of the yacht allows it to cleave through waves, eliminating the power-consuming, bruising bounce of other crafts, and allowing users to explore greater areas through harsher weather conditions.___Gizmag

Below deck, the nature of the design's narrow length/beam ration of 4.8 obviously puts limitations on the available living space, but the 72 foot craft still has room for an three berth cabins including the main en suite cabin and a six-seat dinnette underneath the three seat helm.

Of course, less energy consumption also means less environmental impact, an aspect of the VSV that Multimarine hopes to expand on. Not only does Multimarine wish to run the VSV on bio-diesel, like the Earthrace yacht, but it has coated the bottom of the boat with Ecospeed, a layer of resin and platelets of glass that inhibit the growth of barnacles and algae, thereby eliminating the need for damaging poisons.

The Mary Slim also allows the "wind kite" option for fuel-saving sail power, of a sort. I wonder whether the "wave-cutting" hull design would work for a real sailing yacht? More comfortable in a storm, perhaps, and possibly safer? What about speed--for racing? A lot of questions, so we will have to watch and see.

Multimarine

Biofuels Three Different Ways

ZeaChem--the company using the termite gut organism, moorella thermoacetica, is making plans to secure a supply of fast growing poplar trees as feedstock for their bio-ethanol from cellulose project.

ZeaChem, Inc. and GreenWood Resources, Inc. (GWR) signed a non-binding Letter of Intent for the supply of poplar tree (Pacific Albus) feed stock under a long-term agreement to support the operation of an initial 1.5 million gallon per year (GPY) ZeaChem cellulosic Biorefinery near a Greenwood Pacific Albus tree farm in the Columbia River Basin.

The ZeaChem biofuel process combines the outputs of two traditional fuel production pathways (fermentation of sugars and gasification of biomass) into a third catalytically-driven step—hydrogenolysis—to produce cellulosic ethanol fuel and cellulose-based intermediate chemicals. ZeaChem’s technology will produce 50% more ethanol per ton of feed than the current best-in-class technology.___Source

Solazyme is an algal biofuels company working to produce both biodiesel and more conventional "bio-petroleum" hydrocarbons from algae.

Solazyme, which recently announced the road-testing of blends of Soladiesel, its first algal biodiesel (earlier post), has successfully taken the test blends up to B100, according to Jonathan Wolfson, Solazyme’s CEO....Solazyme has also received funding from NIST to support a project to use algae to produce biopetroleum, which will match the composition of light sweet crude oil. The biopetroleum would be fully compatible with the infrastructure that refines, distributes retails and consumes petroleum products—not just automobile fuels but aviation fuel and chemicals as well.___Source

Meanwhile, back in India, Dwarikesh Sugar Industries Ltd. is using biomass from its sugar production to generate 56 KW of cogenerated power, as well as producing 30,000 liters of bioethanol daily from molasses.

Dwarikesh now has a capacity to generate 56MW of renewable energy as well as 10.95 million liters/year of ethanol from molasses.____Source

Actually, that would be four ways--bioethanol, biodiesel, biopetroleum, and biomass electricity. All of these approaches are far more efficient than corn ethanol and palm oil / seed oil biodiesel.

It is unfortunate that Chinese companies are spending many billions of dollars to destroy tropical rainforests in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, etc. to produce palm oil biodiesel, when there are far more efficient and environment friendly approaches already gearing up. But then, judging from the pollution oozing from China's rivers and air, the environment has never been a top priority there.

It is even more unfortunate that US Senators Ben Nelson and Chuck Grassley (among others) have done so much to waste US taxpayer's money to pursue maize / corn ethanol, when it is such a dead-end approach to biofuels.

Peak Manpower: Geothermal

Although there is enough potential geothermal power under the US to provide 3,000 times US yearly energy needs, geothermal only supplies a small percentage of US energy. Why? Manpower shortage. A shortage of skilled geothermal engineers--trained to locate promising fields of "hot rocks" that are likely to pay out in energy generation.

The drilling for oil has sucked up every qualified drilling person worldwide.....The oil guys have it pretty well down with the best explorers getting results form nearly half of their attempts (Chevron). However, the best tools to determine where to drill for heat are not worked out yet. It will be a wildcat, risky kind of thing for a while. The seismic geology that the petroleum business uses so adroitly isn’t being applied to heat and may not in fact be convertible in recognizable sense. This leads to the second issue about the people: the innovation, creativity and education hasn’t gotten started yet to find, train and educate the people who can cut the risks from trying for a geothermal play.

...Engineering might well play a big role to determine what a good hole is compared to a loser. The directional drilling expertise offers the potential to get more locations productive for geothermal than would otherwise be possible. A pair of parallel bores allowing one fluid down and one fluid back might well change the risk picture dramatically.....

It will take people....those [technology] people can’t come in until another group of people gets in first. Those are the visionaries, leaders and risk takers. That’s the first thing kind of people we need. The payoff could be a reserve that never depletes....

Read More at New Energy and Fuel
A lot of things that sound good on paper will never happen, until the right people are working on the problem, hands-on. People who are resourceful and capable of innovating in the middle of a job. Those people are retiring every year, and not being suitably replaced. Why?

Because the innovative, resourceful, creative people who would have been able to solve problems on the worksite, are being mishandled in schools. A vital human capital resource is being squandered by an ideology-heavy educational system that is blind to the real-world needs of the present and the future. I am referring, of course, to boys. Boys who need male teachers, boys who need all-male classrooms, boys who need a completely different teaching style than the one created by post-modern university schools of education.

Montessori schools, and perhaps Waldorf schools, know better, and allow boys the type of "hands-on" learning they need from the earliest years. These Montessori boys (and other non-conventionally educated boys) will grow up able to choose the area of work best for them. But they are only a few percentages of all the school-aged boys. They are not enough to provide the skilled manpower in technology and industry that is sifting away, year by year.

Optimistic About Topsoil

Optimists tend to be more productive than pessimists. While the media is full of pessimistic voices about "global warming disaster", "peak oil catastrophe", "water shortages", "topsoil depletion", etc., the media does not bother to look for solutions to all of these "problems." Finding solutions is for optimists, who are not afraid to get their hands dirty.

Take dirt, for example. Soil--topsoil to be more specific. While whining "environmentalists" and journalists waste forests of paper telling everyone how hopeless the situation is, individuals more in contact with the real world set about to find ways to build new topsoil, and make it more fertile. One approach to soil fortification is "biochar:"

Biochar or agrichar is a fine-grained charcoal substance made from biomass that has been heated in the absence of air. When used as a soil amendment in combination with sustainable production of the biomass feedstock, biochar effectively removes net carbon dioxide from the atmosphere while providing energy....Biochar can remain in the soil for several hundreds to thousands of years, creating virtually permanent soil sinks. Biochar and bioenergy co-production from urban, agricultural and forestry biomass can help combat global climate change by displacing fossil fuel use, by sequestering carbon in stable soil carbon pools, and by dramatically reducing emissions of other greenhouse gases from soils, such as N2O

...Biochar in soils has been shown to:

* Improve soil health
* Increase crop yields and productivity (by up to 800% when combined with mineral fertilizer in highly weathered acidic tropical soils; by 200 and 300% in advanced agricultural systems that are already at the limit of intensification)
* Reduce soil acidity; acid soils make up about half of the world's potential arable land
* Reduce N2O emissions from soils
* Improve water quality
* Reduce nutrient and chemical leaching and run-off, and
* Reduce the need for chemical and fertilizer inputs___Biopact

Other methods of building topsoil include composting in raised beds, using the essential ingredients:

There are six essential ingredients for soil formation.

1. Minerals
2. Air
3. Water
4. Living things IN the soil (plants and animals) and their by-products
5. Living things ON the soil (plants and animals) and their by-products
6. Intermittent and patchy disturbance regimes

* For soil to form, it needs to be living (4)
* To be living, soil needs to be covered (5)
* To be covered with healthy plants and decomposing plant litter, soil needs to be managed with appropriate disturbance regimes (6)

There is little information available as to how to increase the levels of air, water and organic materials in soil. For this reason, components 5 and 6 of the soil building checklist tend to be overlooked. That may explain why many people believe that new topsoil cannot be formed.

One has to wonder, how did all the topsoil get here in the first place? We know how quickly we lose it when we ignore the fundamental importance of components 5 and 6. To turn things around, we need to encourage soil building processes every day in our land management.___Source

Here is an online book detailing the use of the earthworm for topsoil formation. And this US Patent describes the use of water-based drilling mud for building topsoils. Most creative.

Tropical soils are a bit different, but an intelligent selection of cover crops can make all the difference in building tropical topsoils.

The topic of topsoils is more down to earth than most topics covered at Al Fin. Yet a more intelligent approach to topsoils would go a long way toward improving crop yields and food supplies in much of the world. Certainly a more sustainable approach to topsoils in the industrial world would result in less expenditures on chemical fertilizers and less damaging agricultural runoffs into the water table.

US Economy Deathwatch: Economic Nihilism Chic?

Every writer--including journalists--learns how to "shade" the nuance of a story. Two news stories reporting on the exact same phenomenon, can read startlingly differently in terms of nuance and implication. The naive reader of newspapers, and viewer of newscasts, will typically fail to detect the implicit bias of the writer. If the consumer of news were only more aware of the "marketing" nature of news organisations, he would be just as skeptical of the news as he is of advertising.

The world's largest national economy, the US economy, is far from predictable--yet most economic analysts of the world appear to be writing from the deathbed of that economy. In my experience, economic prognostication as filtered through the journalistic and news media, is exceptionally poor and unreliable.

Certainly both widespread optimism and pessimism toward an economy can be self-fulfilling prophecy. Given the news and popular media's dominant function as chief dispersers of economic "memes", or "mind viruses", it is not surprising that the media can--over time--propagate a profound sense of economic malaise. This sense of malaise eventually percolates to the highest levels of economic decision-making, potentially bringing about in economic reality, the malaise which had only been psychological.

I will provide links to two stories, as examples--and exercises, if you wish. The Geography of Recession from the Economist, and America for Sale, from Fortune (via CNNMoney).

Bruce Hall provides the links and more commentary.

China Drives World Price of Coal Higher

Despite its supposed commitment to cleaner energy, China is building two new coal burning power plants every week. Recent cold weather worsened the need for coal power and heating in China, while at the same time shutting down China's railways and preventing coal from reaching furnaces and power plants.

China's coal miners are working overtime during the Lunar New Year holiday to fuel power stations that shut down over the past month amid the biggest snowfalls since 1954.

Some 64 percent, or 2,882, of China's coal mines are operating during the holiday, double the number of a year ago, the official Xinhua News Agency said, citing the National Workplace Emergency Management Center.

Snowfall in central and southern China brought transport networks to a standstill, killed more than 80 people and caused direct economic losses of about 80 billion yuan ($11 billion), according to the Red Cross Society of China, Xinhua said Feb.6 ___Bloomberg

The runaway growth in China's voracious appetite for coal promises to make China's 2030 CO2 emissions greater than that for the rest of the world combined.

If China's carbon usage keeps pace with its economic growth, the country's carbon dioxide emissions will reach 8 gigatons a year by 2030, which is equal to the entire world's CO2 production today. That's just the most stunning in a series of datapoints about the Chinese economy reported in a policy brief in the latest issue of the journal Science.

Coal power has been driving the stunning, seven plus percent a year growth in China's economy. It's long been said said that China was adding one new coal power plant per week to its grid. But the real news is worse: China is completing two new coal plants per week. ___Wired

You would expect China's mad coal grab would drive the price of coal higher--once China starts importing large amounts of coal. This is exactly what is happening.

The coal sector was shocked on rumours that an Asian steel company had recently paid US$275 a tonne for hard coking coal, almost triple last year's price. But record prices for thermal coal were observed too, with some European importers paying more than US$130 on the spot market. Last week, the Asian thermal coal price index broke the psychological barrier of US$100 for the first time ever.

Spot thermal coal prices have soared in the past few weeks in response to severe coal production and transportation constraints in Australia, China and South Africa at a time when power utilities are holding critically low inventories of coal. [...] We believe that the factors that have driven thermal coal prices higher in recent weeks will have a profound impact on 2008/09 contract negotiations. - Malcolm Southwood, Goldman Sachs JBWere's resource analyst

Our analysis points to a continued tightness in seaborne thermal markets extending to 2010. - Alan Heap, lead author, coal price outlook, Citigroup....Leading analysts now predict a 50% increase up to a doubling of prices, for the coming years.____Source

Of course, the sulfur and particulate pollution from China's coal plants will continue to poison the air, water, and soil of China. The soot particles from China's coal plants will continue to stain arctic ice and snow--accelerating melting and thereby increasing arctic warming. In fact, China's pollution spreads out like a shroud to poison the entire planet. And there is no end in sight.

The high price of coal opens the door to wider use of biomass. Dried, compressed biomass bricks can be mixed with coal, or burned in place of coal.

Higher prices of coal will create the same impetus for better solid biofuels, as higher prices of oil do for liquid biofuels.

That is basic economics, which is clearly not taught to journalism students, K-12 government school teachers, or even most college professors. The general societal pessimism so often seen in advanced societies originates in the disconnect from reality so often pointed to by Al Fin articles. When media voices and celebrities are disconnected, along with academic voices being disconnected, students and young people have very few ways to become connected with reality. If and when they finally make the connection, the shock often drives them back into dominant fantasies and pessimistic quasi-conspiracy ideations.

That is the world our system of government and society is perpetuating. We shall have to see what we can do about it.

New Hybrid Cycle Steam Engine Runs on Glycerol

Here is more information on the Cyclone external combustion engine that is set to power ten 1-MW electric generators. I call it a "hybrid" cycle engine, because it has features belonging to Rankine, Carnot, Diesel, and Stirling cycle engines.

The parties' plans are to power these industrial generators using a glycerol-based synthesis gas produced through Florida Syngas' proprietary plasma process called GlidArc™. Glycerol, the waste product of the bio-diesel industry, is a hydrogen rich, carbon neutral gas with its only waste products being hot water and useable heat. Under the agreement, Florida Syngas will design and build the synthesis gas converters, and Advent Power Systems will develop the engines and generator sets utilizing Cyclone's patented engine technology. Development of the equipment will be co-located in both Grant and Coconut Creek, Florida.___Source

The primary components of the engine include a condenser, steam generator and the requisite valves, cylinders, pistons, pushrods, main bearing, cams, and camshaft. Ambient air enters the engine through the intake blower, which circulates it through the condenser. According to Schoell, the flat-plate condenser �looks like a set of stacked record albums where air goes around the outside of the discs while the vapor on the inside is spun.� It is then directed through heat exchangers, and the air is pre-heated, enters the steam generator, and is mixed with atomized fuel that is also spun in the centrifuge.

...The power output is controlled by a rocker arm and cam design that opens and closes a needle valve in the head. This introduces high-pressure, high-temperature steam into the cylinder and provides the expansion force necessary to drive the pistons. Because it relies on the expansion of the fluid and not the expansive capacity of the fuel to create power, the Cyclone engine is fuel independent.___Autofieldguide

Whereas the old steam engine wasted most of its thermal energy (as much as 90%), the Cyclone Engine is highly efficient due to reheat and regeneration that recycle more than 30% of the heat generated from burning fuel. The engine operates at supercritical pressure (3,200 PSI) and temperature (1,100 degrees F) which makes the superheated steam behaves like a fluid rather than a gas so improving efficiency and making for a more compact engine. The overall thermodynamic efficiency is in the range of the Diesel engine (30-36%). The main advantages are: its capacity of using a wide range of fuels - gasoline, diesel oil, ethanol, kerosene, powdered coal, natural gas, etc.; continuous and complete combustion of fuel, creating less emissions than current gasoline or diesel powered internal combustion engines; high torque at start (700 ft/lb) which eliminates the need for a clutch and gearbox, simplifying the project and cutting down on power losses in transmission; the working fluid, water, is used to lubricate the engine, what avoids the long-standing problem of steam engines, the contamination of lubricating oil by water.___Wikipedia

Using glycerol-derived syngas for fuel is reasonable at this time, since glycerol is an inexpensive byproduct of biodiesel manufacture.

The Florida plans for 10 cyclone driven 1-MW generators, combined with the plasma syngas operation, demonstrates yet another "energy from garbage" approach. Forida appears to be in the vanguard of the advanced energy-from-garbage industry. That is unfortunate from the viewpoint of tourists who were hoping to see huge mountains of landfill dotting the Florida landscape in the near future. At this rate, Florida will be importing half the world's garbage before long--to use as fuel.

Cyclone Power Technologies

More Information on Cyclone engine operation

Obama & JFK: Raising the Ghosts of Camelot

Barack Obama has reached into the past for a bit of campaign magic--the ghosts of JFK and Camelot. JFK's speechwriter, Ted Sorenson, is still alive, working to build a new Camelot in Washington.

At the age of 24, he joined the staff of the newly elected Sen. John F. Kennedy and later helped him win the presidency, calling on Americans to pass the torch to a new generation...The legendary speechwriter helped Kennedy craft the now-famous 1961 Inaugural address in which the new president proclaimed, "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country."

...Today, at 79 years old and blind, Sorensen has a new mission: to resurrect Camelot. And it seems the Obama campaign is listening.

"I've given them a phrase or suggestion or two," Sorensen admits...As for all the comparisons that have been drawn between Obama and Kennedy, "I probably started it," he told ABCNEWS.com

ABCNews

This is important. Because if you have read the transcripts of Obama's "Yes We Can" speech, accompanied by the YouTube video, you will get an inkling of the inspirational power of a well written stump speech. If you have not watched the video and read the transcript, you should do so.

Obama is dipping deeply into the well of inspirational political rhetoric. The rhetoric of JFK's Camelot appears as if by magic--a glorious crystal spring oasis in the midst of the oppressive pessimism, propagated and amplified by the mainstream media. What a relief! Obama offers the hope of a wonderful future, divorced from the parched desperation of the present.

Obama's words trigger at least two innate and powerful needs in the hearts of many of his listeners:

1. The need to be understood.
2. The need to have the hope of a glorious future.

Any politician who can pluck those heart strings will gather a significant following, in terms of numbers.

Obama's speechwriters, including the aging Sorenson, are clearly reaching into more than one historical source, for inspiration. The speeches of Martin Luther King Jr. are likewise being salvaged, for what they may provide in inspiration. And to be sure, Obama is being lifted up as a multitude of icons.

As the weeks and months go by, it will be interesting to count all the icons that one can find, hidden within Obama's speeches, press releases, and fan columns written by journalists and celebrities. Because it appears that Obama is to be the recipient of a deluge of decades long, previously continent outbursts of adoration, saved for just the right shining object.

"He is the one," gushes Oprah--a woman who tends to excess from time to time. "He is the truth," Oprah adds, incontinently. Apparently, Obama is to be many things, as time goes on--but particularly he is to be the inspiration for a political movement. Call him a political Messiah.

Ted Sorenson's Messiah, perhaps, returned from the dead? Certainly Oprah's Messiah. And most definitely the Messiah of Hollywood's drug saturated, jaded crew.

But is he real? Is there any "there", there? We will see.

Previously published at abu al-fin

More: Is Barack Obama the Messiah?

Use the search terms "Obama cult" or "Obama Messiah" and you will find opinions on this topic from every point on the compass. I have been oblivious to all of this, but as early as 2 years ago and 1 year ago, bloggers and columnists have begun to take note of the Obama quasi-cult.

But the scrutiny is truly being turned up now--I presume because Obama is becoming such a nuisance to Ms. Rodham-Clinton.

Political campaigns need to be timed for maximum effect. US Presidential campaigns have to peak small in time for the candidate to become the nominee, and then peak large in time for the general election in November. If the timing is off--as it was for John Kerry in 2004--the election will slip away.

A cult can be a powerful force in society. A political cult of personality can lead nations to war a la Hitler, to isolationism, political purges, and sponsoring terrorism a la Fidel, to mass genocide of the educated classes a la Pol Pot and Mao.

As I said, my awareness of the growing cult developing around Obama is flickering late in the game. Even so, in terms of election cycle timing, the general blogospheric awareness of the phenomenon appears to be flaming high, uncomfortably early for the more cynical realists among Obama supporters.

It will be entertaining to watch the Obama youth, as they revel in their newfound release from the cynical ennui of the psychological neotenate, the academically lobotomised. Frightening to watch their fragile intellects so easily suspended, of course, but still entertaining in the flashbacks to our own youthful naivete.

Big Snow and Ice Anomaly: Is PDO Flipping Cold?

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation of El Nino/La Nina cycles, has a strong influence on the weather of the planet. More La Ninas lead to cooler weather, and more El Ninos lead to warmer weather.

In January of this year, the snow and ice anomaly was the highest since 1966. The extraordinarily cold and icy winter in the Southern Hemisphere last July/August appears to have moved North for December/January. Are we moving into a colder 10-12 year cycle of the PDO? Is the PDO ready to flip?

Early in January 2007, the Phil Jones of the UK Hadley center predicted that 2007 would be the warmest on record due to the El Nino, which some scientists including Hansen predicted could be the strongest in history. Well of course the El Nino quickly faded and La Nina slowly came on during 2007. Temperatures globally cooled, starting in the Southern Hemisphere winter and then transitioning into the Northern Hemisphere winter. At the end of the year, the Hadley center announced it was the 7th warmest, blaming the oncoming La Nina for the cooling and busted forecast. This January, MSU satellite data indicated the globe was cooler than the 1979-98 average for the first time in years.___Source

If the PDO moves into a cooler phase at the same time the sun appears to be stuttering and balking its way into an uncertain cycle 24, what does that mean for the climate? We will have to keep watching, collecting data, and formulating hypotheses from the data. Then we will try as hard as we can to falsify the hypotheses we form. That is science.

Biofuels Triumphant--The Folly of Pessimism

Biofuels have a magnificent future, in terms of replacing liquid petro-fuels for transportation, agriculture, heavy machinery, etc. It is important to keep in mind the rapid progress being made in the new science and technology of biofuels, when looking at research showing that [old methods of producing] biofuels are inefficient.

Several recent studies about the carbon balance of first-generation biofuels, including two analyses published in Science, are based on assessments of current land use practises. These studies are important, but the conclusions drawn from them are often seriously flawed. Moreover, if these conclusions are placed in a neo-malthusian perspective on population and natural resources, they cannot be taken seriously at all because there is no credible basis for neo-malthusianism in the first place.

...all these analyses are based on existing, primitive land use practises and on first-generation, inefficient biofuels made from crops like corn or soybeans. They do not take into account new energy crops (e.g. crops that yield far more biomass and are engineered to store far more CO2 than ordinary crops), the use of plantation residues, new bioconversion technologies, and the radical option of capturing and storing carbon from bioenergy production.

Those who use current studies about the carbon balance of today's incredibly inefficient biofuels to conclude that all biofuels are incapable of reducing emissions are making a grave mistake....Decentralised biofuel production plants that can be located close to the land to be cleared are already here. These plants draw on a process called fast-pyrolysis. It transforms any type of biomass into bio-oil, which can be further upgraded into transport fuels or used in power plants....The process works as follows: original biomass (e.g. a woodland) is used for the production of a biofuel such as pyrolysis oil....The fuel is then sent to a facility where it is used for the production of either electricity and heat, a fully decarbonized biofuel (such as biohydrogen) or a low-carbon biofuel....

...Current biofuel crops like corn or soybeans are truly inefficient because biofuels made from them only utilize a fraction of the biomass grown, that is, easily extractible starch or oil. These first-generation biofuels have no future and are no longer of interest to the bioenergy community....A large number of plant biologists and bio-engineers has already developed new crops that either yield far more biomass (which immediately clears much of the carbon debt), or that store far more CO2 than ordinary crops, or that contain in them codes for easy bioconversion.

...an area in which huge potential can be found is in the utilization of plantation and processing residues from existing agricultural operations and biofuel operations. Recently, we referred to the potential for the production of biohydrogen from palm oil residues. A palm plantation yields farm more biomass than is currently used in the form of oil. If these vast amounts of residues are used productively instead of burned or dumped as waste, the carbon balance of biofuels from the oil is seriously improved (previous post). There is similar potential is virtually all agricultural operations today. The same process can be applied in biofuel operations, where residues and byproducts (such as glycerine in biodiesel) is used as a feedstock for a myriad of green products that replace oil, coal and gas.
___Source

The fact is, the people who do studies such as the ones in Science, cannot possibly keep up with the rapidly advancing technology in biofuels. By the time they publish, their results are hopelessly out of date. While the energy return to energy invested ratio is only 1.5 for maize ethanol, for advanced ethanol and biodiesel production methods, the return can be over 10 to 15 times the energy invested.

Many advocates of biofuels favour them for the prospect of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. We at Al Fin see that rationale as trivial and unimportant. Increased energy independence and sustainability are far more important reasons to develop advanced biofuels. The payoff will be most significant.

Negative Feedbacks in Ocean Temperatures

Current GCMs fail to take into account the many negative feedbacks that influence climate. Given the importance of ocean temperatures, circulations, and oscillations on the climate, it is past time for the infant science of climatology to grow up and take them into account.

Natural processes may prevent oceans from warming beyond a certain point, helping protect some coral reefs from the impacts of climate change, new research finds. The study, by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), finds evidence that an ocean "thermostat" appears to be helping to regulate sea-surface temperatures in a biologically diverse region of the western Pacific.

... The research will be published online Saturday in Geophysical Research Letters. It was funded by the National Science Foundation, NCAR's primary sponsor, with support from the U.S. Department of Energy; the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology; and AIMS....The study lends support to a much-debated theory that a natural ocean thermostat prevents sea-surface temperatures from exceeding about 88 degrees Fahrenheit (31 degrees Celsius) in open oceans. If so, this thermostat would protect reefs that have evolved in naturally warm waters that will not warm much further... ___Source

Differential heating of land and ocean by the sun leads to varying winds across the globe. Oceans influence winds, so it should be no surprise that winds can influence oceans. It sounds like feedback to me . . .

Professor Ric Williams, from the University's School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, explains: "We found that changes in the heat stored in the North Atlantic corresponded to changes in natural and cyclical winds above the North Atlantic. This pattern of wind movement is called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is linked to pressure differences in the atmosphere between Iceland and The Azores.

"The computer model we used to analyse our data helped us to predict how wind and heat exchange with the atmosphere affects the North Atlantic Ocean's heat content over time. We found that the warming over the mid latitudes was due to the wind redistributing heat...___Source

Of course, the authors pay liberal homage to the mantra of "global warming"--the god of research grants. If you can tie your grant proposals and research conclusions to "global warming", the god will smile on you and yours. The rest of us will need to read between the lines to relevant underlying mechanisms at work.

Climate models are only as good as the assumptions that lie behind them. If the assumptions are naive and incomplete, the results will be badly skewed.

Negative feedbacks are neglected by climate models--perhaps because including them might lead to undesired results.

I Had to Dump Her--Her Perfume Kept Setting Off My Home Laser Spectrometer Defense!

Thirty two wavelength-specific lasers can be packed onto a single chip to allow a tiny laster spectrometer to monitor almost any chemical in the environment.

The team, which reported its findings in the Dec. 3 issue of Applied Physics Letters, was headed by Federico Capasso, the Robert L. Wallace Professor of Applied Physics and Vinton Hayes Senior Research Fellow in Electrical Engineering, and includes graduate student Benjamin Lee, researchers Mikhail Belkin and Jim MacArthur, and undergraduate Ross Audet, all of Harvard's School of Engineering and Applied Sciences. The researchers have also filed for U.S. patents covering this new class of laser chips.

The broad emission spectrum of the Quantum Cascade Laser material, grown by a commercial reactor used for the mass production of semiconductor lasers, is designed using state-of-the-art nanotechnology by controlling the size of nanometric thin quantum wells in the active region.... The tunability of the laser chip can be extended up to 10-fold and several widely spaced absorption features can be targeted with the same chip, which will enable the detection in parallel of an extremely large number of trace gases in concentrations of parts per billion in volume. A portable compact spectrometer with this capability would revolutionize chemical sensing. ____Source

The ability to pack more functionality into smaller spaces--and mass produce this functionality economically--leads to a smarter environment that can sense more hazards.

Of course, getting your romantic liasons to change their perfume or cologne is entirely your own responsibility.

Still Waiting for Greenhouse

The plot above is of satellite temperature readings of the lower atmosphere from UAH (red) and RSS (blue). UAH is University of Alabama Huntsville, and RSS is Remote Sensing Systems, two trusted climate satellite groups that have recently reconciled data measurement differences.

....both the RSS and the UAH temperature records show that January 2008 was below the long term (1979-1998) average for the month. This is the first time since January 2000 (exactly 8 years ago) that both records were colder than normal. Figure 3 shows both records from January 2001 through January 2008 and illustrates that over this time period—more than 7 years, during which time global emissions of carbon dioxide have increased by probably 15-20% (the actual data are only available through 2004, but the emissions growth from 2001 to 2004 was over 11% and we doubt things have slowed down any, see here for data )—there has been absolutely no warming whatsoever in the lower atmosphere.

World Climate Report

Also check out Roger Pielke's take on deep ocean heating, and Richard Lindzen's Case Against Climate Alarmism (H/T Tom Nelson)

This is only short term weather noise, of course. We will need to keep watching to see if the apparent "disconnect" between atmospheric CO2 and temperature trends continues. Of course this is not the first de-coupling of CO2 and temperature. Nor will it be the last.

Only the highly gullible have made up their minds that a catastrophic anthropogenic global warming disaster from greenhouse gases is just over the next hill. It is the smart ones who are skeptical--the ones who actually believe in science.

The Dog Wags the Tail

This Bloomberg article explains why the US is still the dog.

This report on the Hong Kong stock market is only one small reason why China is still part of the tail.

Update: It is interesting to see how much was lost from the equity markets of various countries in January 2008--based upon rumours of a US recession.

....the world's emerging equity markets were devastated in January, posting an average loss of 12.44 percent.
Turkey was hit hardest during the month, losing 22.70 percent, followed by China, down 21.40 percent. Russia plunged 16.12 percent and India was down 16.00 percent.___Source

H/T StaticNoise

Estimates of how long it would take China to overtake the US as world economic hegemon vary between 20 and 50 years. If the next US president decides to hamstring the US economy with unscientific, emotion-based CO2 hysteria, China will have a much easier time catching up.

As I have stated before, China's many dangerous instabilities make long-term predictions difficult. If I were to choose one scenario out of many as most probable, I would see a "warlord" style breakup of the current Imperial China, into at least 3 separate, warring geographic factions.

Peak Oil: Meet Moorella and Her Friends

Bioethanol has the inside track in the race for sustainable alcohol biofuels. While those of us who are salivating for the development of economical bio-butanol processes will have to wait, the race for the best bio-ethanol process is shaping up nicely. The current dark horse is Zeachem, the California startup that is using moorella thermoacetica--the termite gut microbe--to convert cellulose to acetic acid (acetate), then on to ethanol. The hybrid process is illustrated above.

The process can yield 50 percent more ethanol from a given amount of biomass than conventional processes. The net energy ratio of biofuel produced this way is between 10 and 12, compared with first generation biofuels like corn ethanol, which come in at around 1.5. The new net energy ratio benchmark radically changes any biofuel policy debate....The company has demonstrated the new method in a laboratory setting and is now drawing up plans for an ethanol plant that will produce about two million gallons of ethanol a year. Construction could begin as early as this year, says Dan Verser, a founder and vice president of research and development at ZeaChem.

...ZeaChem replaces yeast with a type of bacteria called Moorella thermoacetica, which can be found in a number of places in nature, including termite guts and the ruminant of cows, where it helps break down grass. Instead of making ethanol and carbon dioxide, the bacteria convert sugars into a component of vinegar called acetic acid, a process that releases no carbon dioxide....To convert acetic acid into ethanol, ZeaChem turns to chemistry. First, the company's researchers convert the acid into a common solvent called ethyl acetate - something that chemists have long known how to do. The final step - making ethanol - requires adding energy to the system in the form of hydrogen.___More details at Source___

The frontrunner in competition with Zeachem is Coskata, which claims to be in a position to produce US $1 a gallon bio-ethanol by 2010.

Using patented microorganisms and efficient bioreactor designs, Coskata uses a unique three-step conversion process that turns virtually any carbon-based feedstock, including biomass, municipal solid waste, bagasse, and other agricultural waste into ethanol (schematic, click to enlarge). The technology is globally applicable. The process is environmentally sound, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by as much as 84 percent compared to gasoline, as well as generates up to 7.7 times as much net energy as is required to produce the ethanol, according to Argonne National Laboratory____Source

The Coskata process is illustrated in the graphic below:
Both ethanol processes above involve multi-step hybrid processes to yield between 7.7 times and 10 times the energy consumed in the process. Compare those yields to the 1.5 times input from maize (corn) bio-ethanol. Maize is not even in the running.

Finally, there is the algal biodiesel/bio-alcohol hybrid process from Green Star Products, Inc.

First generation algae production can produce 4,000 gallons of oil per acre per year (versus 50 to 100 gallons for other oil crops) and later generations will produce 10,000 gallons or more per acre.”___Green Star

Some of the claims should be taken with a grain of salt, but eventually science will unlock the promise of abundant energy from biology. Whether the key production breakthroughs will occur within 5 or 10 years, the actual high volume production of quality biofuels should occur within 20.

If the newer in situ processes for producing oil from shales and tar sands pay out, there is enough liquid fossil fuel to power world industry for approximately 100 to 200 years. We should not depend on those promises, but conventional oil yields alone should be sufficient for 30 years at current consumption. If prices go too high, economies will slow and consumption will go down. Price drops will follow reduced demand. It is a cyclic process, with negative feedbacks.

Biofuels are scalable far above current projections. Earth's biosphere is extremely expandable and contractible. But it is unlikely that biofuels will be the main long-term solution to human energy needs. Transportation is another story, but aside from aircraft, alternatives to liquid fuels and solid fossil fuels will probably take over within 50 years.

Electricity can drive automobiles, and other forms of transportation aside from aircraft. Electric power is versatile, and better methods for producing electricity are being developed on an almost daily basis.

Nuclear fission energy will provide a necessary bridge to nuclear fusion energy, large scale geothermal, and massively interconnected renewable energy power grids (HVDC HT superconductor transmission interconnect) of much improved reliability and stability. Utility scale storage (eg redox flow cells) will provide further stability.

De-centralised production and storage of energy will also become more economical and feasible, for those living "off the grid." Residential renewable energy generators (wind, solar, neo-bio etc) paired with both electrical storage and fuel cell backups, should provide remote haciendas with clean, safe, reliable power.

The long term goal is technology that allows humans to roam the solar system and beyond, carrying with them all they need for life support and other needs for thriving in the universe.

1500 Years of Global Cooling

Careful temperature reconstruction from Swedish tree rings points to a cooling of -0.3 degrees C between the years 500 CE (AD) and 2000 CE.

The article is forthcoming in Climate Dynamics, and the work was conducted by Håkan Grudd of Stockholm University’s Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, and despite the results, the research was not funded by industry. The focus here is the Torneträsk area in northern Sweden near 68.5°N (within the Arctic Circle) where Scots pines have been growing for millennia. Grudd not only sampled living trees, but he also collected subfossil samples found as dead wood on dry ground and from submerged logs retrieved from small mountain lakes. Many other studies have shown that the pines are sensitive to summer temperatures, so in theory, the tree samples should allow a very long term and relatively accurate reconstruction of past thermal conditions.

Grudd not only measured the width of each tree ring, he also measured the density of the wood in each ring using an Itrax WoodScanner from Cox Analytical Systems (the perfect gift for the man who thinks he has everything). The obvious trick here is to link the width and density time series to the climate in the growth area. Fortunately, Grudd was able to assemble records from “Abisko, a local record (AD 1913–2004) provided by Abisko Scientific Research Station, which is located within the Torneträsk area; (2) Tornedalen, a long composite record (AD 1802–2002) based on a combination of historical data and synoptic station data from Haparanda approx. 350 km south-east of Torneträsk; and (3) Bottenviken, a regional record (AD 1860–2004) provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and based on data from six synoptic stations in northern Sweden.” He used fairly standard multivariate statistical methods to link the climate records to the width and density measurements, and just like magic, response functions are developed to estimate summer temperatures from the tree ring data that extend back 1,500 years.

... [Grudd says:]“The late-twentieth century is not exceptionally warm in the new Torneträsk record: On decadal-to-century timescales, periods around AD 750, 1000, 1400, and 1750 were all equally warm, or warmer. The warmest summers in this new reconstruction occur in a 200-year period centred on AD 1000. A ‘Medieval Warm Period’ is supported by other paleoclimate evidence from northern Fennoscandia, although the new tree-ring evidence from Tornetraäsk suggests that this period was much warmer than previously recognised.” (emphasis added)

We will leave you with this very interesting conclusion from Grudd’s research:

[Grudd:] “The new Torneträsk summer temperature reconstruction shows a trend of -0.3°C over the last 1,500 years.”____WorldClimateReport

In the figure above, panel "a" shows the tree ring width-only reconstruction. Panel "b" shows the multi-proxy reconstruction. Panel "c" shows the difference in the two reconstructions.

It is important to realize that weather and climate are typically regional--not global. What was happening in Sweden at this period of time could easily be different from what was happening in Patagonia. Still, this tree ring + other proxies study brings the reconstructions all the way through to the present time--unlike the famous discredited Mann "hockey-stick" that is helping Al Gore become so rich and famous.

H/T Lubos

FIRE Kicks ASS!! See It and Believe It

If you are unfamiliar with FIRE--the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education--you owe it to yourself to watch this new Fire.org video. FIRE works for the type of idea-filled university environment that typifies the ideal for education.

The ideal university is filled with debate, dissent, and heresy--in the best "Freeman Dyson" sense of the word.

If you are a college student, potential student, potential parent of a student, or a college alumnus, you need to be very, very concerned about current campus administrative attitudes toward free speech rights of students and faculty.

FIRE takes on the fascists of higher education head on. And sooner or later, the fascists are going to back down. Every. Time.

FIRE is not the only organisation to champion the rights of free speech on North American campuses, but it is the vanguard non-partisan organisation that will simply not be deterred.

The Sun is Dimming--Meteoroligical Scientists are Being Forced to Fight for Funding to Monitor the Harbingers of a New (little) Ice Age

The sun is in a "funk"--unsure of what to do, when to kick into its new cycle: Solar Cycle 24.

The last such solar funk corresponded with a period of bitter cold that began around 1650 and lasted, with intermittent spikes of warming, until 1715. While there were competing causes for the climatic shift—including the Black Death’s depopulation of tree-cutting Europeans and, more substantially, increased volcanic activity spewing ash into the atmosphere—the sun’s lethargy likely had something to do with it.

...The planet’s climate is a messy picture, with all sorts of influences and feedback cycles that need to be taken into account. In order to build more accurate computer models, scientists need to understand both anthropogenic factors and the link between the sun and our planet, Tapping says. To help get at the sun’s influence, he and other researchers connect Earth’s temperature with historic sunspot records of sky watchers from Europe and China, as well as with carbon-14 isotopes­—residue from cosmic rays delivered by the sun’s magnetic field—found in tree rings. To understand our role in climate change,” he says, “we need to understand the natural process.”....“Things [new solar research telescopes] are all on hold due to the consequences of the huge science funding cuts in the U.S. and the U.K.,” Tapping says. “This is impacting other partner countries because of the possible need to cover financial holes. Nobody is clear yet as to how this will unfold so they are hanging onto their wallets, for the moment.”

PopMech

At least one veteran meteorologist is predicting the start of a global cooling, based upon satellite measured temperature trends combined with recent global weather patterns. The reluctance of the Sun to go ahead and do its job is simply an additional reason to be concerned.

Update:

R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center of Canada's Carleton University, says that "CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales."

Rather, he says, "I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet."

Patterson, sharing Tapping's concern, says: "Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth."

"Solar activity has overpowered any effect that CO2 has had before, and it most likely will again," Patterson says. "If we were to have even a medium-sized solar minimum, we could be looking at a lot more bad effects than 'global warming' would have had."___IBD

Global cooling is a potentially civilisation-stopping development--depending upon how far it goes. It could be a genuine catastrophe--in contrast to current overfunded CO2 hysteria. Scientific funding agencies have become steeped in a neo-Lysenkoism of climate, that is quickly taking on fascist overtones in terms of lack of tolerance of debate and dissent.

Westerners are being failed by their governments and scientific foundations. It is within the ability of many of the world's "concerned billionaires" to make up governmental deficits in funding for the vital heresies. Unfortunately, men such as Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, George Soros, etc. cannot be bothered with such things.

Look At All That Surface Area! NextGen Nanowire: Solar Cells "On Steroids"

New gallium arsenide nanowires grown on a silicon substrate by McMaster University researchers promise to deliver a broader spectrum photovoltaic return.

"Most of the nanowire work to date has focused on silicon nanowires," says LaPierre, explaining that McMaster's approach relies on nanowires containing multiple layers of exotic Group III-V materials, such as gallium arsenide, indium gallium phosphide, aluminum gallium arsenide, and gallium arsenide phosphide. "It creates tandem or multi-junction solar cells that can absorb a greater range of the [light] spectrum, compared to what you could achieve with silicon. That's one of the major unique aspects of our work."

When used in conventional crystalline solar cells, Group III-V materials are known to have much higher efficiencies than silicon, but the great cost of these materials has limited their use. LaPierre says that cost becomes less of an issue with nanowires because so little material is needed. This is in part because the structure of the nanowires provides a more efficient way to absorb light and extract electrons freed by the light. In conventional solar cells, which are made of slabs of crystalline material, greater thickness means better light absorption, but it also means that it's more difficult for electrons to escape. This forced trade-off is overcome with nanowires. Each nanowire is 10 to 100 nanometers wide and up to five microns long. Their length maximizes absorption, but their nanoscale width permits a much freer movement and collection of electrons. "The direction in which you absorb the light is essentially perpendicular to how you collect electricity," explains LaPierre. "The dilemma is overcome."___TechReview

The sheer surface area is amazing. Animal organs such as lungs, kidneys, intestines etc. take advantage of huge surface areas for gas exchange, nutrient and fluid absorption, waste elimination, etc. Nano-scientists are learning how to do the same thing in a number of devices--including the above photovoltaics approach.

As the Oil Seeps: Abiotic Oil--Not If, But How Much?

A recent research paper published in Science presents evidence for the possibility of an "abiotic petroleum production" deep within the earth.

Low-molecular-weight hydrocarbons in natural hydrothermal fluids have been attributed to abiogenic production by Fischer-Tropsch type (FTT) reactions, although clear evidence for such a process has been elusive. Here, we present concentration, and stable and radiocarbon isotope, data from hydrocarbons dissolved in hydrogen-rich fluids venting at the ultramafic-hosted Lost City Hydrothermal Field. A distinct "inverse" trend in the stable carbon and hydrogen isotopic composition of C1 to C4 hydrocarbons is compatible with FTT genesis. Radiocarbon evidence rules out seawater bicarbonate as the carbon source for FTT reactions, suggesting that a mantle-derived inorganic carbon source is leached from the host rocks. Our findings illustrate that the abiotic synthesis of hydrocarbons in nature may occur in the presence of ultramafic rocks, water, and moderate amounts of heat.___Science

No big surprise, really, given the apparent abundance of hydrocarbons in various extraterrestrial environments.

Here is the abiotic oil theory in brief:

....in the 1950s, some renegade Russian scientists developed an “abiotic” theory that suggested oil is inorganic and has no dead animal or plant origins. The theory, elaborated upon and popularized by the late Cornell University astronomy professor Thomas Gold in scientific papers and his intriguing book, “The Deep Hot Biosphere,” proposes that crude oil forms in a set of natural and ongoing geologic interactions five to 15 miles below Earth’s surface.

The theory holds that methane-based gases rise from the mantle and then condense into heavy hydrocarbons as they hit high temperature zones near the crust. This methane dew, according to the theory, is what we call crude oil; meanwhile, methane-based gas that escapes the condensation process and rises through rock fissures into big gaps above are what we call natural gas.___Source

Suggesting that the likelihood of such abiotic hydrocarbons implies the impossiblity of "peak oil" would be both premature and simplistic.

There have been many "peak oils", and there are likely to be more over time. These are caused by various market and economic forces. Even without significant quantities of abiotic petro-fuels, the more apocalyptic scenarios of peak oil doom seekers still provides more amusement than concern. Where there is money to be made, intelligent humans capable of grasping opportunities will use markets as they exist, to accumulate wealth. The problem-solving approach to wealth formation (